Due to the new schedule this season, for the second straight week, we will be getting a brand new PGA event, with The 2019 3M Open. This tournament will take place at TPC Twin Cities (Par 71, 7,481 yards), which is located in Blaine, Minnesota. This course has been used on Champions Tour in the past, but never at The PGA level. It was designed by the great Arnold Palmer and has been updated for The 3M Open, which will be a stop on the Tour for the next seven years. With no previous data about TPC Twin Cities, we have to evaluate the course by an eye test and from a first glance, this track looks it will produce some low numbers.
The fairways are wide, the bent grass greens seem large and this should be a birdie fest. There is water in play on 14 of the 18 holes, but most of it comes into play with off the tee shots, so I really don’t think it will be much of a factor. There are three par fives at this course and they are all over 590 yards in length, but these holes are still obtainable in two shots and I think we should put a heavier weight on par five scoring.
As always like to do with new courses, I think we need to primarily focus on current tee to green game when choosing our golfers. Overall, even though this is a better field than The Rocket Mortgage Classic, this is still a weak group of players and with so much uncertainty coming with a new course, I believe it is best to play a lighter card for the first ever 3M Open. @Hunta512.
Hideki Matsuyama: (11,100)
Matsuyama has been a model of consistency this season. He has not missed a single cut in 17 starts and has finished inside the top 25 in five straight. During this run, he has gained 7.7 total strokes per event, due to his always stellar ball striking. (4th in SGT2G, 10th in SG APP, and 8th in BS in L24 rounds)
Matsuyama’s play on the par four and fives has also been elite (3rd in SG on P4s and 4th in SG on P5s), along with his ability to consistently stay in the red numbers. (2nd in BOB% in L24 rounds) He holds the second best to odds win this tournament (10/1 via Bovada) and is my top pick of the week.
Jason Day: (10,900)
Day isn’t far behind Matsuyama in the betting market (11/1 via Bovada) and is also a very strong choice on DraftKings this week. In his last start, at The Travelers, he had his best ball striking performance of the year. He led the field in greens hit at TPC River Highlands and ended the week with a T8, which was his sixth top ten of the season.
Day now ranks 2nd in GIR over his last 12 rounds and has only missed one cut in his last six starts, with a top 25 coming in each of those five made cuts. He has shown excellent upside in weaker fields this season (T5 at The CJ Cup, T5 at The Farmers, T5 at The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and T8 at The Travelers) and Day is worth every penny at $10,900.
Rory Sabbatini: (9,500)
Sabbatini has shown no signs of slowing down. After missing back to back cuts in February, the “other Rory” has made 12 cuts in a row and produced three top tens in his last five, including a T3 at The Rocket Mortgage last week.
In this start, which was also at a new PGA venue, Detroit Golf Club, Sabbatini hit the most fairways of any player and also shot a field best -12 on the par fives. Over his last six tournaments, he ranks 3rd in SGT2G, 4th in BOB%, and 2nd in SGT. He presents top ten upside again this week and Sabbatini should be lower owned than most players in this price range.
Joaquin Niemann: (9,300)
Niemann’s game is really trending up. He has rattled off five made cuts in a row and has finished T5 in his last two events. He was 2nd in greens found last week at The Rocket Mortgage Classic and has gained an average of 9.9 total strokes in these past two top fives.
The 20 year old is arguably playing the best golf of his young career and has had most of his putting success on bent grass. The price tag is up, but I think we need to gamble on this rising star exposing another weak field.
Kevin Streelman: (8,900)
I have been relying on Streelman for a few months now and I don’t think there is any reason to stop at The 3M Open. He hasn’t missed a cut in seven events and has four top 15s during this stretch.
His tee to green game ranks with the best of this field (2nd in SGT2G, 1st in SG APP, 2nd in GIR, and 4th in BS in L24 rounds) and if Streelman didn’t struggle with his putter last weekend (-0.5 SGP), he would have likely carded another top 20 at The Rocket Mortgage Classic. (T35, ranked T6 in GIR) He is an extremely safe value and Streelman should be priced over $9,000 in this type of form.
Peter Malnati: (7,800)
Malnati has been very dependable recently. He is currently on a five made cut streak and has made it to the weekend in 11 of his last 14 events.
He has finished no worse than T40 in his past five and sets up nicely for TPC Twin Cities, with some impressive par five play (10th in SG in P5s in L24 rounds) and solid ball striking. (30th in SGT2G and 8th in SG APP in L24 rounds) He should make another cut this weekend and is a fine value that I will be using in both cash games and GPPs.
Jason Dufner: (7,700)
Dufner missed the cut by a stroke at The Rocket Mortgage Classic, but it was due to his lack of ability to find the fairway at Detroit Golf Club. (57.1% DA) He was positive in SGT2G, SG APP, and SG ARG, but this was the first event in five starts that he didn’t positively gain off the tee.
With some very wide and generous fairways at TPC Twin Cities, Dufner should rebound with his driver this week and get back to making cuts. Prior to last weekend, he had made five of his previous six, with two top tens in that span. Even with this most recent MC included, Dufner ranks 4th in my model (6th in SGT2G, 9th in SG APP, 4th in GIR, 3rd in fairways gained, and 6th in BS in L24 rounds) and is the perfect time to buy low on him.
Cameron Tringale: (7,700)
Last week, Tringale recorded his first top ten of the season at The Rocket Mortgage Classic. (T5) His irons were on fire in this showing (T2 in GIR) and have been very strong as of late (3rd in GIR in L24 rounds), helping him to finishes of T23, T11, MC, and T5 in his last four starts.
His upside is clearly high right now, if he can continue to strike that ball at an elite level and Tringale has the potential for a top 25 at this easier track.
Mackenzie Hughes: (7,400)
Hughes has been producing quality finishes (T8, T14, T51, and T21 in L4) and his price should be higher in this field. He did miss a pair of cuts two months ago, but these are his only two MCs in his last 10 starts.
He has five top 25s over that time and has supplied over 5.0 SGT2G in three of his last four appearances on Tour. He currently holds some of the best odds under $7,500 (90/1 via Bovada) and is a great value that should out perform his salary.
Doc Redman: (7,200)
Redman was a regular on The Mackenzie Tour in Canada, but after shooting a 62 in the qualifier for The Rocket Mortgage Classic, he got the opportunity to compete in his second PGA event of the season. The 21 year old out of Clemson then proceeded to shock the field and shoot -19 over the four rounds, leading him to a solo second place finish at Detroit Golf Club.
Redman is now 2/2 on Tour this season, with the other finish being a very respectable T18 at The Wells Fargo back in May. He gets another chance to prove himself this week at The 3M Open and I think this course fits him rather well. Across his two PGA events this year, he has gained an outstanding 6.45 ST2G, helping him to a 9.3 total stroke average and even though the sample is small (eight events), Redman has positive splits on bent grass for his career. Obviously, many things could go wrong with this kid, but the reward clearly outweighs the risk at this low of a cost.
Max Homa: (7,000)
Homa made the cut last week (T42), but for some reason, his salary was cut $300, making him a clear cut value at only $7,000. His first ever PGA win at The Wells Fargo is the obvious highlight of his season, but Homa has actually been a very reliable option all year.
He has made ten of his last 12 cuts and his MC at The Travelers two weeks ago is his only MC in his last eight events. He is a great ball striker (7th in BS in L24 rounds) and par five player (2nd in SG on P5s in L24 rounds) that simply can’t be ignored at this price.
Josh Teater: (6,500)
Teater gained a strong 6.7 ST2G last week in Detroit (T35) and this was his fourth consecutive made cut. In fact, this was his 3rd finish of T36 or better in these last four, with a T17 at The Charles Scwhab back in May being the outliner.
He is a solid iron player (20th in SG APP and 22nd in GIR in L24 rounds) and while he may not possess much upside, Teater has a much better chance of making the cut than most of the players in this price range.
*Please note that some of these rankings are from Fantasynational.com