Before we head to Bethpage Black for The PGA Championship next week, the Tour makes it way to Trinity Forest Golf Club (par 71, 7,554 yards) in Dallas, Texas, for The 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship. This is only the second time Trinity Forest has held this event, so we only have last year’s results to use as a reference. Aaron Wise took home the top prize a year ago, finishing the week at 23 strokes under par. As you can tell from his final score, Trinity Forest is a very easy track.
The cut line last season was at -4 and while there is some rain expected on Thursday and Saturday, the cut should be under par again and the winning score should be right around -20. In his victory, Wise led the field in greens found and par four scoring, putting an emphasis on both of these stats.
Six of the top 11 players at last year’s Byron Nelson ranked T12 or better in GIR and all but one of the top seven finishers ranked inside the top ten in par four scoring at Trinity Forest. You don’t have to be super long off the tee at this course, but being a strong driver off the golf ball was beneficial last year, with only one of the top 15 players not gaining strokes off the tee. All in all, I will be primarily focusing on SGT2G, SG APP, SG OTT, P4 scoring, and BOB% for this week. @Hunta512.
Brooks Koepka: (11,400)
You’re not going to feel comfortable with the lineup you build around him, but Koepka is the easy top choice of the week. No, he didn’t tee it up at Trinity Forest last season, but Vegas is still putting Koepka as the heavy favorite to win this year’s Byron Nelson. (7.5/1 via Bovada, 2nd best is Hideki Masuyama at 16/1)
His last start was a T2 at The Masters and he has only missed two cuts in his last 42 tournaments, including a notable five wins. If Koepka can focus on the task at hand this week and not let his head get ahead to The PGA Championship, he could easily run away with this tournament and I recommended having some shares.
Aaron Wise: (9,400)
I usually don’t like to target defending champs, because they always tend to be overpriced, but that isn’t the case with Wise. Fresh off back to back top 20s, he has the 4th best odds to win this weekend (22/1 via Bovada), but is 8th highest priced golfer on DraftKings.
Furthermore, Wise has only missed one cut in his last five events and his tee to green game has been very solid. (13th in SGT2G, 12th in GIR, 3rd in SG OTT, and 17th in SG APP in L24 rounds) Obviously, I don’t think Wise is going to win here two years in a row, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we saw his 4th top 20 in his last six starts.
Keith Mitchell: (9,100)
Mitchell was excellent at Trinity Forest a year ago (T3) and is coming off a strong showing at The Wells Fargo Championship. (T8) At Quail Hollow last week, he led the field in DD and also ranked T10 in GIR. This was Mitchell’s 5th made cut in his last six starts and his 3rd top ten during that span, which includes his first ever win on Tour, at The Honda Classic.
His ball striking has been outstanding in his last 24 rounds (4th in SGT2G, 1st in SG OTT and 2nd BS) and he has been converting birdies at a high rate. (4th in BOB% in L24 rounds) While this may be the highest Mitchell has ever been priced on DraftKings, I think he is a great value for all formats, that should shine in this very weak field. (28/1 via Bovada)
Rafa Cabrera-Bello: (8,600)
This just feels like a ridiculous price for RCB considering the competition. Based on world rankings, he is the 5th best golfer competing this week, but is the 15th highest priced player on the board. He didn’t make the trip to Dallas last season, but Cabrera-Bello is 12/14 this season and just finished T16 at The Heritage two weeks ago.
His form has been trending up (10th in SGT2G, 19th in SG APP, 8th in SG OTT, 4th in BS, and 12th in BOB% in L24 rounds), specifically his scoring on par fours. (4th in SG on P4s in L24 rounds) He will most likely end up being a popular option, but RCB is just a value that can’t be ignored.
Thorbjorn Olesen: (8,100)
Olesen’s irons were on fire at The Masters (T8 in GIR) and if he didn’t struggle with his putter, he would have finished much better than a T21 at Augusta. He hasn’t played competitively since, but overall, he is 4/5 in PGA events this season.
He ranks 3rd in GIR when comparing all of these golfers last 24 rounds and Olesen is just another golfer that is too cheap for his raw talent in this soft field. At 50/1, has the same odds to win as Rory Sabbatini, but costs $900 less.
Scottie Scheffler: (7,900)
Scheffler is a 22 year old player from The Web.com Tour that is originally from Dallas. In his last three events on The Web.com, he has finished T2, T7 and T2. Additionally, Scheffler is 2/2 in PGA event this year, including a T20 at The Valero Texas Open just last month. He is a very effective driver (319 average drive in L5) and iron player (73.32% GIR rate in L5), that shouldn’t disappoint in this homecoming at Trinity Forest Golf Club.
Even though he only has two PGA starts under his belt this season, Vegas is giving Scheffler plenty of respect (66/1 via Bovada, which are the best odds to win of all the players under $8,000 this week) and so should we.
Trey Mullinax: (7,600)
Mullinax struggled on the weekend, but he still got the job done last week and made the cut at The Wells Fargo Championship. (T50) This was his 12th made cut of the season, in 16 starts, and he is also ten for his last 12. Mullinax has always been known for his elite distance, but his irons have been awesome recently.
He has gained 6.8 strokes when approaching the green over his last two starts, which is good enough to rank him first in SG APP when we look at all of these golfers last eight rounds. If he can keep this up, Mullinax is going to start producing top 20s consistently, especially in fields like the Byron Nelson.
Matt Jones: (7,500)
A year ago at this track, Jones dominated the par fives (-10) and ranked T8 in greens hit, leading to a T13. Now, he is coming into this year’s Byron Nelson in strong form, making 11 of his last 12 cuts, with no finishes worse than T38 in his last five.
Imploding on holes used to be Jones’ downfall, but being a safe golfer has been the key to his recent success. (6th in bogeys avoided in L24 rounds) If he can maintain this, Jones has the potential for another top 20 at Trinity Forest.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee: (7,500)
After missing four cuts in a row, KHL has successfully made it to the weekend in seven of his last eight PGA events. He has shown some upside during this run, with four finishes inside the top 30, most notably a T7 at The Honda Classic. He didn’t play here last year, but Lee’s game sets up perfectly for Trinity Forest.
In his last 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in GIR, 9th in SG OTT, 10th in BS, and 3rd in SG on P4s. Lee currently is tied for the best odds to win of all the players at $7,500 and lower (80/1 via Bovada) and is a fine target for both cash games and GPPs.
Adam Schenk: (7,000)
Last week at The Wells Fargo, Schenk was dialed in with his irons (T8 in GIR) and posted his 5th top 20 of the season. Overall, he is 14/19 for the year and has gone T7, MC and T13 in his last three tournaments. Furthermore, Schenk has gained strokes in nine of his last ten starts and his stats have been great in his last 24 rounds. (24th in SGT2G, 5th in SG APP, 9th in GIR, 11th in BS, and 2nd in SG on P4s)
He teed it up here last season (T59) and while that finish might not been anything to brag about, having that experience is still an advantage most of the players this week don’t have.
Hank Lebioda: (6,700)
The end results haven’t been much, but Lebioda has made five straight cuts and is now eight for his last ten after The Wells Faro last week. (T50)
His tee to green game has been promising (8th in SGT2G and 6th in GIR in L24 rounds) and if he can find any sort of stroke with his flat stick (122 in SGP in L24 rounds), Lebioda should make the cut at this easy course.
Nate Lashley: (6,300)
I wouldn’t have much exposure, but Lashley is a decent punt to risk, if you are trying to fit in Koepka. He had a nice week here last season (T32) and just finished T45 at The Wells Fargo.
He has been very up and down (T8, MC, MC, T32), but as a whole, his record for the season is solid (7/9 and three top 20s) and his stats have been decent. (36th in SGT2G, 16th in SG APP, 11th in GIR, and 31st in SG on P4s in L24 rounds)
*Please note that some of these rankings are from Fantasynational.com