Following The Players, we now head to Dallas, Texas for The 2018 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship. After many years at TPC Four Seasons, this tournament will now take place at Trinity Forest Golf Club, which is the first time this course has held a PGA event. This track is a Par 71, that measures in at 7,380 yards long. With this being the first time a PGA stop has been played at Trinity Forest, we are going into this week guessing on how this course will play. It makes things difficult and right off the bat I am going to recommended playing a smaller amount of your bankroll because of this and also due to the fact this is an extremely weak field of players. Texas native and club member, Jordan Spieth is headlining the field, but after him and a handful of other well-known names, this field really drops off and gets ugly.
After looking over the course, there is nothing “forest” about it and it looks similar to an Open Championship link style course. It is very open and the fairways are wide, inclining me to favor bombers over accurate hitters off the tee. Furthermore, very much like a links course, the greens are also on the larger side. They even have a double green, with holes #3 and #11 sharing one massive putting surface, which the course website claims is the “biggest green in North America”.
Even though these greens a big, I still think we need to target strong iron players who have been sticking greens at a high rate. Also, outside hole #14, which plays around 630 yards, all of these par fours and fives look scoreable, so we should target golfers who are currently playing well on these types of holes. At the moment, the weather looks pretty good for all four days, with only a little wind possibly becoming a factor on Saturday. If I were to guess, I think we see the winner finishing somewhere between -15 and -20. Overall, when we are heading blind into a brand new PGA course, I believe we should primarily focus on the main stats in DFS golf. Those stats in my opinion are strokes gained tee to green, ball striking, and birdie or better percentage. @Hunta512.
Keith Mitchell: (7,800)
Mitchell struggled last week in his third round at TPC Sawgrass leading to a MDF, but prior to this he had made 11 straight cuts, with two top tens in his last six starts. On top of being a constistent cut maker since the fall, Mitchell stands out as one of the best values statistically in his current form. When comparing all of these players last 12 rounds, he ranks 4th in SGT2G, 27th In SG APP, 5th in GIR, 1st in ball striking, 3rd in driving distance, 46th in par four scoring, and 24th in par five scoring. (via Fantasy National)
He has been awful on the greens the last two weeks (32 average putts per round), but as we all know, putting is a very variant thing in golf. If he can manage an average week of putting on these huge greens, Mitchell has a chance of posting a top 20 finish, considering how strong his tee to green game is right now.
Grayson Murray: (8,200)
Over the last two months, Murray has shown some nice upside for DFS. He has made it to the weekend in five of his last six events, finishing in the top 30 in four of those starts, while averaging 77.7 DK points in the those five made cuts. He is your prototypical bomber, ranking 20th in driving distance this season and I think the added distance will be a big advantage for him at Trinity Forest. Plus, in his last 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in SGT2G, 36th in SG APP, 36th in GIR, 6th in ball striking, 3rd in BOB%, 11th in par four scoring, and 13th in par five scoring. (via Fantasy National)
His putting also can be questionable, but he has been better recently, hitting a 28.3 average putts per round during the last three weeks. Murray is currently sitting at 55/1 odds to win (via Bovada) and is one of my preferred GPP options for The Byron Nelson.
Martin Laird: (7,900)
When you compare Vegas odds to DraftKings’ player pricing this week, Laird instantly stands out as an elite value. He costs $7,900 and is 21st highest priced golfer in the pool, but has the 9th best odds to win, at 40/1. (via Bovada) He has made the cut in six of his last seven events, including three top 15s. In his last 24 rounds, he has been an excellent par four player and birdie maker, ranking 6th in each category. Plus, he has been rolling it extremely well with the flat stick, ranking as the number one player in strokes gained putting during this span. (via Fantasy National)
For the season, he also ranks 52nd in driving distance, 56th in SGT2G, and 64th in ball striking. With no course history to rely on, I think taking your chances on Laird and his great Vegas odds is a very smart move this week.
Graeme McDowell: Five for his last six and is currently 50/1 to win. (via Bovada)
J.B. Holmes: Just seems underpriced in this field. We all know he is long with his driver, but he also has been 12th in SGT2G and 14th in GIR% in his last 12 rounds. (via Fantasy National)
Peter Uihlein: Risky, but is coming off his best finish of the season, with a T5 at The Wells Fargo Championship. He is at 55/1 (via Bovada) and is the 6th best par five player in his last eight rounds. (via Fantasy National)
Troy Merritt: Has made the cut in seven of his last eight starts and has been playing very well with his irons, ranking 3rd in SG APP, 8th in GIR%, and 7th in ball striking during his last 12 rounds. (via Fantasy National)
Kevin Tway: 6/7 the last two months. He stuck 70.8% of the greens last week at The Players, which was his highest GIR% of the new year.
Abraham Ancer: MC at The Wells Fargo Championship, but made his five previous cuts, with three top 20s. He is also from Texas, originally from McAllen.