The Tour stays on the west coast, Pebble Beach, California to be exact, for The 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This tournament consists of three different courses. Every golfer will play a round on each of the following tracks. The Pebble Beach Golf Links (par 72, 6,816 yard), Spyglass Hill (par 72, 6,953 yards), and The Monterey Peninsula Shore Course (par 71, 6,914 yards) with Pebble Beach Golf Links being the host course, meaning that if you make the top 60 and ties cut that happens after the third round on Saturday, you will be competing at Pebble Beach on Sunday for the final round. As usual, with multiple venue events, it is tough to fully breakdown exactly what stats we need for the week, but in the past, this event has been dominated by strong iron players.
These are three shorter tracks and length off the tee hasn’t been a factor in anyway, and in fact, the last five winners have only posted an average drive of 283 yards. This is more of a second shot event, as all of the last five winners have ranked T6 or better in greens hit during their wins. These are some very small greens, so GIR% and approach stats are crucial. Each of these last five winners have also ranked inside the top inside the top five in par four scoring for the week, putting an emphasis on par four scoring. Additionally, all three courses have POA type greens, so it’s worth a look at who putts well on this specific type of surface. As I mentioned above, this event’s cut is smaller at T60 and ties, compared to T70 and ties, but the cut will happen after Saturday, so every golfer will get three rounds of golf instead of the usual two before the cut, barring an injury or withdrawal. This makes it more appealing to take bigger risks with cheaper players around your studs, instead of going with a balanced roster approach. @Hunta512.
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Chris Kirk: (7,100) He will miss a cut here and there, but Kirk’s overall form has looked very strong to start this season. He is 7/9 in made cuts, including three top 15s in his last five starts. Statistically this season, he checks every box we want this week, 9th in SGT2G, ranking 5th in strokes gained on approach, 39th in greens hit, 18th in BOB%, and 50th in par four scoring. (via Fantasy National) Just last week, he played very well with his irons, finishing T11 at The Waste Management, ranking T11 in greens found, which is a solid 72% GIR rate. He also has played well here in prior seasons, making 4/6 cuts, which includes a T39 last season and a runner up finish in 2013.
His putting has always been one of his flaws, but he has shown improvements this season, with a 27.8 average putts per round over his last five starts and he has been solid on POA type greens, ranking 67th in in SGP on this type of grass when comparing all of these players last two eight rounds of golf. (via Fantasy National) His game has been trending up over the last month and at this price, Kirk is a very intriguing gamble, that could get us a top 25, at a depressed ownership. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Bryson DeChambeau: (6,900) After a speed bump of missing back to back cuts, DeChambeau bounced back last week in a big way, with a T5 at The Waste Management Phoenix Open. His numbers were outstanding in his first top five of the year, ranking T2 in fairways found, T5 in greens hit, and T15 in par four scoring. He nailed 21 birdies in this start and he reminded us of how strong of a DraftKings scorer he can be, scoring 105 DK points in the finish. After last week, he now ranks 9th in SGT2G, 18th in strokes gained approaching, 3rd in greens hit, 10th in BOB%, 10th in overall birdies gained, 1st in par five scoring, and 37th in par four scoring. (via Fantasy National) He has only played in this event once, missing the cut last season, but this was during a very tough stretch for DeChambeau. It was his third missed cut in a row during the time and he showed that the poor golf he was playing was due to an apparent hand injury, with him withdrawing the following week at The Genesis Open.
He is clearly healthy now and is having a much better start to this season, making 7/9 cuts, compared to last year, when he was 4/9 up until this point of the schedule. He currently has 66/1 odds (via Bovada) to win this weekend, which are tied for the best odds of all the players priced at $7,000 or lower this week. With Rafael Cabrera-Bello sitting right there at the same price (13-16% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), DeChambeau’s ownership is naturally going to be low this week, (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) making him an ideal cheap option to pair with RCB, who is an awesome play in his own right, or the perfect pivot play off the Spaniard, if you want to be very contrarian.
Billy Horschel: (6,600) Horschel has played some solid golf after taking two months off to heal his shoulder (WD from The Shriners back in November), making it to the weekend in his last two standard cut events, but also a nice T11 finish at The Tournament of Champions in the first week back from the injury. In these last three starts he ranks 25th in SGT2G, 44th in strokes gained approaching the green, 8th in greens hit, 66th in BOB%, 51st in par five scoring, and 34th in par four scoring. (via Fantasy National) He also is a solid putter on POA greens, ranking 42nd in SGP in his eight rounds that have involved POA. (via Fantasy National)
No, these aren’t the best numbers, but Horschel is clearly underpriced for the caliber of golfer he is. He seems to be fully over the injury and even though his form isn’t perfect, this is a good time to attack him at this low of a price, especially in this event that he has decent history at. (3/5 made cuts) I can’t guarantee a made cut, because Horschel is one of the most unpredictable golfers on The Tour, but at only $6,600, I believe he is one of the best cheap gamble of the week, that should get overlooked in most GPPs. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Chez Reavie (his history is ugly at 3/8 made cuts at this event, but he hasn’t missed a cut since last May. He ranks 1st in SGT2G and 3rd in strokes gained approaching over his last 12 rounds), Paul Dunne, Shane Lowry (3/3 in this event), Kevin Streelman (6/10 at Pebble and has made nine straight cuts. Also, he just always seems to be a forgotten man, with him not going over 10% owned these last two weeks in main GPPs), Scott Piercy, and Russell Knox. (seven straight made cuts before last week)