Welcome back guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings PGA Sleeper Picks for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. It was a rough week last week with Daniel Berger (T8) being the only one of my three main picks making the cut. It was odd to see both Castro and Streb struggle on a course they have played well on before, but DFS weeks like this are going to happen. Moving on to Pebble Beach, just like The Career Builder a few weeks ago, this tournament consists of three different courses. All of the players, barring a WD or DQ, will play Pebble Beach (par 72), Spyglass Hill (par 72), and Monterey Peninsula (par 71). The cut will be on Saturday instead of Friday, with the final round being played at Pebble Beach. All of these courses are rather short with the Spyglass being the longest and most difficult measuring in at 6,953 yards. Even though these are all shorter courses, distance really isn’t a factor, with the average drive of the last four winners being a low 284 yards.
These players are going to have a ton of wedge shots that will seem simple, but really aren’t when considering how small these POA type greens are. Players are going miss these greens, so I think it is also important to target strong scramblers and short distance players. One last thing to note is the weather. Wind and rain can always be a factor here, and right now it looks like it will rain Thursday and Friday. It is expected to clear up for Saturday and Sunday, but this can always change, so this is something to monitor up until Thursday morning. With all this considered, the main stats I will be looking for are greens in regulation percentage, strokes gained approaching the green, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained putting, scrambling, and birdie or better percentage. There are some big names playing this week, but overall this is a weaker field compared to the last two weeks. It is very slim pickings for cheap players, but it is nice that they will get three rounds even If they don’t make the cut, which is a great boost for their DraftKings scores. Also if you are looking for more DraftKings PGA picks, check out Geoff’s article through this link. Good luck this week, and as always, if any of these picks help your lineups or if you need advice let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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Steve Stricker: (6,600) Stricker looked solid in first event since September, finishing with a T42 last week at The Waste Management. The 49 year old had a very successful season last year making 11/15 cuts with five top 25s, three top tens, and one 2nd place finish at The St Jude Classic. He was in great form at the end of last season, making nine straight cuts, including two majors, with a T42 at The PGA Championship, and a very impressive lone 4th place finish at The Open Championship. He doesn’t rank statistically on The Tour yet with him only competing in one event this season, but last week he put up some solid stats, with a great GIR percentage of 73.6% and a high 78.9% scrambling percentage.
These are the exact stats we want here at Pebble Beach, and if he continues with his strong approach and short game, he should compete here this week. He doesn’t have the best track record here, making 3/7 cuts, but he does have two very respectable finishes, with a T14 in 2006, and a T13 in 1995. These finishes were obviously both a long time ago, but he is arguably in better form now, with him making ten straight cuts including last week. I think the veteran has a good chance of making the cut, and at only $6,600, he is a nice GPP play that should come with a very low ownership this weekend. (5-8% via Fantasy Labs)
Matt Jones: (7,000) Jones is an inconsistent player, but he has been terrific here at Pebble Beach for his career, making 8/9 cuts with a T10 in 2010, a T15 in 2011, a T7 in 2015, and another T10 last season. He has had a decent start to this season making 2/4 cuts with a T36 last week at The Phoenix Open. He’s got some very intriguing stats to start the season, ranking 67th in strokes gained tee to green, 15th in strokes gained around the green, 70th in strokes gained putting, and 40th in birdie or better percentage.
His success here in this event has been with his approach game, with a nice average GIR percentage of 69%, in his last four made cuts here at Pebble Beach. His experience is a great advantage for him, and the 8/9 made cuts is not reflected into his cheap $7,000 price tag at all. Right now he is only projected to be owned between 2-4%, which is way too low for a player who is coming off a made cut with this kind of course history.
Adam Hadwin: (7,300) Hadwin has never played in this event before, but he is just way too cheap for the current form he is in. He has now made ten of his last eleven cuts and outside of his T49 at The Farmers, he has been dominating since the start of the season, with a T12 last week at The Waste Management, a T10 at The OHL Classic, and a 2nd place finish at The Career Builder Challenge. Even though he has never played on these Pebble Beach courses, his great performance at The Career Builder is a sign that he can handle a tournament that involves more than one course.
He currently ranks 19th in strokes gained putting, 68th strokes gained approaching the green, 48th in scrambling, 56th in GIR percentage (73.7%), and 13th in birdie or better percentage. He also has been excellent from 100-125 yards out, ranking 32nd on Tour from this distance which is a key range this week, with 22.3% of the player’s approach shots coming from this distance last year. (via Fantasy Golf Metrics) His game is at a high level right now and his scrambling and iron play should give him a great shot of making the cut this weekend, with top 20 upside. His $500 price drop since last week makes no sense, and at only $7,300 he is one of my favorite values of the week.
Also Consider: Shane Lowry (great play at only $7,000, but will be highly owned), Trey Mullinax, Sean O’Hair, Ryan Blaum, Cameron Tringale, Patrick Cantley, and Robert Streb.