Before heading to East Lake for The 2018 Tour Championship, we head to Aronimink Golf Club for The 2018 BMW Championship. This course hasn’t hosted a PGA event in seven years and if you are looking for a course breakdown and some more picks, be sure to check out my first article for The BMW, via this link. This is a no cut event, with only 69 players teeing it up. (Daniel Berger withdrew due to an undisclosed reason) This will automatically inflate all of these golfers ownerships, but below are my favorite cheap plays, that will hopefully go lower owned in GPPs. @Hunta512.
Billy Horschel: (8,000)
If you were like me, Horschel’s WD (illness) from The Dell Technologies Championship ruined many of your lineups last week. But, given that this wasn’t injury related, I think we need to give him a pass and go right back to him at The BMW. Prior to the first round WD, Horschel was without a doubt, playing his best golf of the 2018 season. In the span of six events, he only missed a single cut, with finishes of T17, T2, T35, T11, and T3 in those made cuts. Even including the MC at The Canadian Open, he was averaging 6.6 strokes gained total in this run.
In his last 24 rounds, he has been a statistical stud, ranking in the top five in all of theses stats. SGT2G, SG APP, GIR, ball striking, SG on par fours, BOB%, and bogeys avoided. Oh, and he ranks 6th in SG on par fours that fall between 400-450 yards, which is the range of eight of the par fours at Aronimink (via Fantasy National) He did miss the cut in his only start here back in 2011, but he was in the midst of a bad run at the time, missing five straight cuts. Horschel is playing far better golf now and with some people still bitter about last week, we may see a sub ten percent ownership in large GPPs. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Louis Oosthuizen: (7,500)
Oosthuizen needed to have a solid week at TPC Boston to stay inside top 70 for The BMW, and he did just that, with a T31. He is now at 69th in the standings and if he wants any chance of going to East Lake, he must produce at least a top ten this weekend. I am not saying he will accomplish this and get in the top 30, but Oosthuizen is a clutch golfer, who can step up at any given moment. He knows the task at hand and I am sure he is going to give it a very good run at Aronimink. In his past seven starts, he has made every cut, has finished T31 or better, with three top 20s, while averaging 5.34 strokes gained total.
He ranked T8 in average putts per round at The Dell Technologies and he has gained strokes putting in three consecutive events. This will be his first time at Aronimink, but he is a course manager who can really handle any type of track. This is mostly a gut feeling, but without many people on him (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), I think Oosthizen is a great gamble, that could surprise.
Keith Mitchell: (6,500)
After missing the cut at The Northern Trust, Mitchell recovered very well at The Dell Technologies Championship, posting a T20 in his debut at the event. He hit it long, as usual (12th in DD), but he also played extremely well his irons, ranking T7 in GIR and gaining 7.7 strokes when approaching the greens. In fact, this was the most approach strokes Mitchell has gained in an event all season long. He has now made eight of his last 11 cuts, with three top 30s coming in his past five starts.
He is a weak putter, which is concerning at this course, but his ball striking has been so strong (9th over last 24 rounds, via Fantasy National) and the price is so low, that I am willing to take my chances on Mitchell having an average week on these greens in this no cut event. He is 66th in the point standings and will be shooting for his best performance of the year.
Cameron Smith: (7,800)
Smith has taken his game to another level so far in these first two playoff stops, posting a T3 at both The Northern Trust and The Dell Technologies Championship. He has gained 9.9 strokes total in these events, behind a robust 5.0 SGT2G and 4.9 SGP. This puts him at 14th in SGT2G and 4th in SGP when looking at all these players last eight rounds. On top of that, he is the number one par four player and the second best player at avoiding bogeys. (via Fantasy National) At 45/1 (via Bovada), Smith has the best odds to win The BMW of any player under $8,000 on DraftKings.
Xander Schauffele: (7,700)
This kid is a very tough player to predict, but at 41st in the standings, I am sure Schauffele is going to do everything he possibly can to give himself a chance to defend his Tour Championship title in two weeks. The start of The FedEx Cup Playoffs have been a little shaky for him (MC, T49), but we all Schauffele can elevate his game at any time in the world’s strongest fields. He made all four major cuts this season and put up a top ten at both The U.S. Open and Open Championship. The stats haven’t been good, but given his track record and that there is no cut to worry about, Schauffele should be very aggressive at Aronimink.
Ian Poulter: (7,500)
As he should have been, currently sitting at 45th in The FedEx Cup Standings, Poulter was very disappointed he missed the cut at TPC Boston. Right after his round on Saturday, Poulter tweeted out that he was “disgusted” with his putting and that he was heading straight to Aronimink to work on this issue “the old fashioned way” with “Hours of repetition until I’m happy.” The frustration and dedication shows his desire to make it to East Lake and that he knows he must play extremely well at The BMW. With some extra time to work on it, I am sure the savvy veteran will regain his stroke with his putter and before The Dell Technologies, Poulter had gained strokes in seven of his last eight events. We have seen him rise to the occasion in this type of scenario before, just this season, when he feared he was going to lose his Tour card. After missing back to back cuts in March, it only took him two starts for him to pick up his first PGA Tour win in nearly six years. Since then, he has only missed two weekends in 15 starts, while also producing nine top 25s. There is clearly plenty of upside here and with many people hesitant to roster him after his recent MC, Poulter is a sexy contrarian pick in GPPs. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Abraham Ancer: (6,800)
I don’t like chasing finishes (T7 at The Dell Technologies), but the truth is Ancer has really been playing well over the last month. Yes, he missed the cut at The Northern Trust, but prior to that, he made four of his last five, with two top tens. So, now Ancer has three finishes of T7 or better in his last seven starts. Even when including The Northern Trust, he is gaining 5.4 strokes total in his past four tournaments and has been an awesome on par four player in his last 12 rounds, ranking 5th in SG on par fours and 2nd in SG on par fours that are 400-450 yards. Just like with Mitchell, Ancer will be looking to have another big week to help him possibly advance to The Tour Championship. (56th in points)