After a week off, The FedEx Cup Playoffs now head to Conway Farms Golf Club (Par 71, 7,233 yards) in Lake Forest, Illinois for The BMW Championship. The Dell Technologies Championship was an excellent tournament, that was capped off with Justin Thomas picking up his fifth win of the year and possibly locking up the player of the year award. As for my sleepers, it was a successful week, with Marc Leishman, who was one of my featured players, almost taking home the big check, finishing at lone 3rd place, putting up 113.5 DK points. Now, on to The BMW at Conway Farms.
This will be the third time this playoff event has been held at this venue, once in 2013 and once in 2015. Both long and short hitters have succeeded here, and the most important skill will be these player’s approach games. The fairways aren’t overly difficult to find and these golfers will need to find as many of these small Bermuda greens as possible if you want to contend. In the past two BMW Championships at Conway, the top 20 finishers averaged a GIR% of 69.4%, and the two winners both ended the week inside the top six in greens hit, at a 74.9% average GIR%. (via Fantasy Golf Metrics) To shoot low numbers at this track, you need to be aggressive and make your birdies on these three par fives, which ranked as the three easiest holes on the course back at The 2015 BMW.
Lastly, it is important to note that this is a no cut event of 70 players, with the top 30 players of The FedEx Cup standings, heading to The Tour Championship next week. As always with these small no cut events, I think it is essential that we target players who are strong DraftKings scorers and to focus more on GPPs than cash games. This is the second to last event of the playoffs and really the last good opportunity to play DFS Golf this season. So, good luck, have fun, and as usual if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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Kevin Na: (7,900) After a very up and down campaign this season, Na has seemed to regain his form. He knew he would have to make a run to qualify for these playoff events and he did exactly that, making three consecutive cuts, including two top tens, with a T4 at The Northern Trust, and a T6 last week at The Dell Technologies Championship. During this time, his stats have been stellar, as he ranks 8th in strokes gained total, 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 7th in strokes gained approaching the green, 3rd in birdies gained, and 3rd in strokes gained around the green. (via Fantasy National)
For the season, he hasn’t been great on par fives, ranking 133rd in par five scoring, but he has improved recently, shooting -4 on par fives per tournament in his last four starts, which ranks inside the top 20 of all the golfers playing this week over the last six weeks. Last but not least, Na has been consistently racking up the DraftKings points, ranking as the 9th best DraftKings scorer over his last 12 rounds of golf. (via Fantasy National) Also, he is no stranger to this track, as he finished T10 here back in 2015. He currently sits at 40th in The FedEx Cup standings and will need another high finish at Conway, if he wants to continue to The Tour Championship next week. Given his current situation and form, Na is a very nice value play, that could come with a decently low ownership, with the popular Patrick Reed sitting right above him at $8,000. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Phil Mickelson: (7,300) Just like with Na, Mickelson needs to have another successful week if he wants to be playing next week at East Lake for The Tour Championship. He moved up 22 spots in The FedEx Cup standings after his T6 performance last week at The Dell Technologies, but is still just outside the bubble at 36th place. Mickelson obviously knows what is at stake, and I think we see him ride his improved form from last week. He hit a rough patch towards the end of the year, but at TPC Boston, his game looked awesome, shooting under par in all four of his rounds, converting 17 birdies, and ranking 6th in strokes gained tee to green for the week. (via Fantasy National)
Even though the finishes haven’t been there all season, Lefty has been a very effective par five player all year, ranking 10th in par five birdie or better percentage, and 6th in overall par five scoring. He also has two decent showings here at Conway Farms, with a T32nd in 2015 and a T33rd in 2013. At this low salary, I like taking my chances on the savvy veteran getting the job done this week.
Charl Schwartzel: (7,300) If you haven’t noticed already, I like taking risks on players who should have some extra motivation this week. Schwartzel missed some time this season with a wrist injury, hurting his FedEx Cup point ranking, and after last week, he is now the 43rd player in the standings. He will need to finish close to the top to secure a spot in next week’s finale, which isn’t out of the question for a player like Schwartzel. After returning from his injury, it took some time, but the South African has slowly found his form, and has now made five straight cuts, finishing in the top 30 in three of his last four starts.
Just last week during his T25 at TPC Boston, he posted a 68.1% GIR rate, a 301 yard average drive, and ranked T3 in par five scoring for the week. As of late, he has been one of the best par five players on The Tour, ranking T5 in par five scoring over the last month in half. In his one appearance at Conway Farms, Schwartzel had a great week, finishing T8th in 2013. He also has a very compelling BMW Championship history overall, with a 18.8 average finish for his career. Even in this small field, I have a feeling Schwartzel might be a forgotten name, (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), making him one of my favorite GPP plays of the week.
Also Consider: Marc Leishman (just like last week, he screams value at this price, with his 40/1 odds to win being the best of any player under $8,000), Keegan Bradley, Pat Perez, Daniel Berger, Jamie Lovemark, Chez Reavie (1st in strokes gained approaching the green over his last 12 rounds, via Fantasy National), Xander Schauffele, and Francesco Molinari.