Following Bryson DeChambeau’s convincing win last week at The Northern Trust, we now head to TPC Boston for second event of The 2018 FedEx Cup Playoffs, The Dell Technologies Championship. The top 100 players in The FedEx Cup standings are eligible to compete and the top 70 and ties will be proceeding to the weekend. As of Monday night, the field is at 98 players, with Francesco Molinari (rest) and Rickie Fowler (oblique), the 2015 champion, both already withdrawing. After this event, the top 70 in the standings will move on to The BMW Championship and then the top 30 will close out the season at The Tour Championship.
Now, with that out of the way, let’s get back to this week. The Dell Technologies Championship, formally known as The Deutsche Bank Championship, takes place at TPC Boston, and has since the tournaments birth, in 2003. The course is located about an hour from Boston in Norton, Massachusetts and it is a par 71, that is 7,342 yards long. Before taking home The FedEx Cup last season, Justin Thomas won this event, at 17 strokes under par and all of the previous champions have shot -14 or better. You don’t need to bomb it on this course and the fairway isn’t difficult to find. It is far more important to be a strong iron player.
Outside of Chris Kirk in 2014, all of the last five winners at TPC Boston have ranked T18 or better in greens hit, at an average GIR percentage of 74%. All of the par fours and fives are scoreable, and scoring on both types of holes should be factored in, but I think the heavier weight should be on the par fours. Four of the past five winners have ranked in the top ten in scoring on these par fours, with Thomas last season and Henrik Stenson in 2013, both leading the field. Lastly, this is the last tournament of the year that includes a cut and since it takes place on a holiday weekend, it will start a day later than usual on Friday and end on Monday. @Hunta512.
Adam Scott: (9,400)
Some complain about his long putter, but fan of it or not, it’s been the extra boost Scott has been looking for all season. He’s always been one of the best tee to green players (16th in SGT2G), but when his flat stick is also on, he is simply an elite talent. In these past two starts, Scott has been growing confident on the greens, gaining 6.1 strokes putting.
This now puts him at 3rd in SGP, when comparing all of these golfers last eight rounds and has resulted in back to back top 5s, which are his two best finishes of the season. The irons have remained hot (7th in SG APP in last eight rounds) and if he can keep rolling it well with this putter, Scott has excellent upside at TPC Boston, where he has only missed one cut in 12 attempts, and has six top tens.
Tommy Fleetwood: (8,500)
I don’t care if this is his first start at TPC Boston, Fleetwood is just flat out miss priced at $8,500. Including Euro events, he has only missed two cuts this year in 27 total starts and has made ten of his last 11, with eight top 25s coming in that span. This is the first time since his runner up finish at The U.S. Open that he has been priced under $9,000 on DraftKings for a PGA event. To add some more fuel to the fire, he is the #11 ranked player in the world and has the 12th best odds to win this week, but is the 18th highest priced player on the board.
Last week, at The Northern Trust, Fleetwood had no issues tackling a new course, shooting under par in three of four rounds at Ridgewood and finishing T20th. The 27 year old is averaging 6.6 strokes gained total in his past ten starts and ranks 3rd in SG on par fours and 7th in BOB% in last 24 rounds. (via Fantasy National) His superb irons and strong birdie making ability are a perfect match for this track, and I am expecting at least a top 20 from Fleetwood this weekend.
Kevin Na: (7,400)
Na is back to being an extremely reliable fantasy option. In his last ten starts, he has only missed one cut and has posted five top 20s, including a win at The Greenbrier. His main calling card has always been his irons and he has now gained strokes with his approaches in eight of these last ten starts. His last two finishes have been a T19 at The PGA Championship and a T15 at The Northern Trust. In these starts, he is averaging a great 6.7 strokes gained total, ranks 2nd in SG P, and 4th in SG on par fours. (via Fantasy National)
His history at TPC Boston looks ugly at a first glance (5/10 cuts), but he posted a T6 here last season and has made his last three cuts at the course. There isn’t much logic to it, but even though he has produced back to back top 20s, Na has seen his price go down $200 since last week. He is a great value at this price and is someone I will be targeting in both cash games and GPPs.
Dustin Johnson: (11,600)
I like the defending champ, in Thomas, but for just $200 more, it’s hard to pass on DJ. Yet again, he has the best odds to win, at 9/1, compared to JT, who is currently at 11/1. (via Bovada) In his last eight starts, Johnson has six finishes of T11 or better. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in SGT2G, ball striking, BOB%, and par four scoring. (via Fantasy National) He’s still the number one ranked player in the world and he has never missed a cut at TPC Boston. Finally, the best part about all of this is that I think he won’t be one of the highest owned players of the week, making this a prime time to attack DJ.
Patrick Cantlay: (9,000)
Cantlay is just a pure model of consistency right now. He has only missed two cuts this season and has five top 20s in his last seven starts. His stats also stand out, ranking 5th in SGT2G, 17th in SG APP, 5th in GIR, 8th in ball striking, 18th in SG on par fours, 5th in SG on par fives, 14th in BOB%, and 10th in bogeys avoided over his last 24 rounds. (via Fantasy National) Last season, he posted a T13 in his first Dell Technologies Championship and I am expecting a similar result this weekend.
Hideki Matsuyama: (8,900)
After an up and down year, Matsuyama is finally playing like the elite ball striker we all know he can be. He is coming off a T11 at The Wyndham and a T15 at The Northern Trust, and in those events, he gained an elite 7.5 SG on approach, which is easily the most any of these players have gained in their last eight rounds of golf. (via Fantasy National) Now, he heads to TPC Boston, where he has never missed in a cut in four efforts, with a top 25 in each of the last three seasons. At 58th in the FedEx Cup standings, Matsuyama will obviously be looking to make a big jump this week.
Gary Woodland: (7,700)
His new putter grip didn’t bring him another top ten, but Woodland still played solid at The Northern Trust, finishing T48th. He has now made eight straight cuts and is 37th in the point standings heading to TPC Boston, where has been great at in the past, making 6/6 cuts, with finishes of T29, T12, T15, and T18 coming the last four years. For a player with that kind of course history, Woodland should easily cost over $8,000.
CT Pan: (6,700)
Pan screams value at this soft salary. Over the last three months, he has made 10/11 cuts and has finished T20 or better in five of those events. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks 16th in SG APP and 22nd in SGT2G. (via Fantasy National) Last year, in his first crack at this course, he had a decent showing, with a T47. This time around, he needs to at least make the cut if he wants to make it to The BMW, with him currently at 72nd in The FedEx Cup standings. At the cheapest price we have seen for him in over two months, Pan is a very viable punt play.