For the second stop of The FedEx Cup Playoffs, we make our way to TPC Boston, for The 2018 Dell Technologies Championship. Below are my favorite cheap plays that should hopefully come with lower ownerships in GPPs. If you are looking for more picks and a course write up, be sure to check out my first post of the week, via this link. @Hunta512.
Stewart Cink: (7,100)
Cink was a disappointment last week at The Northern Trust (MC), but I think we need to put this in the past. In the first round of the event, he shot an ugly seven over 78, but he rebounded very nicely in the second round, shooting a ten stroke better 68. Obviously, this wasn’t enough to get him inside the cut line, but it’s a positive sign that there isn’t anything wrong with his game and that this was just a rare bad round for the veteran. In fact, it’s very rare, when you realize this was only the third round he shot over par in his last 26. He was riding a six straight made cut streak heading into last week, featuring three top tens and only one finish worse than a top 25. (T37 at The Canadian Open)
In that span, he also gained strokes in each start, at a high average of 7.7 strokes per event. As you can see, the form has been extremely strong and with that MC sitting right there in his game log, this is an opportune time to attack Cink. His ownership should naturally be lower than it has been the last month or so (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), and his price has seen a $400 decrease. He has played at TPC Boston nine times and made six cuts, with his best finish being just last season. (12th) Finally, missing the cut at Ridgewood last weekend dropped him seven spots in The FedEx Cup standings (65th), right near the top 70 line that will be moving on to The BMW Championship. He absolutely knows what is at stake and not only am I am expecting a made cut, I think Cink has top 20 upside at TPC Boston.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello: (7,300)
Very much like with Cink, Cabrera-Bello was a victim of just one bad round last week. He made the cut, but in the third round, he shot a six over 77, which was his only round over par at The Northern Trust. He was at T24th going into that round, but ended the week at T60th. Overall, the end result doesn’t look promising, but this was his first round of shooting over par in his last three starts.
In those events, he also gained strokes when approaching the green in all three, helping him to average a solid 4.9 strokes gained total. He is an ideal fit for TPC Boston, with his accurate game off the tee and when attacking the green. This will be his second appearance at The Dell Technologies and in his first attempt, he had no issues in his debut at the course, with a T18, a year ago. Currently, he is at 59th in The FedEx Cup standings and if he wants to stay in the top 70, RCB is going to need a similar finish this weekend.
Tyrrell Hatton: (7,700)
Hatton has made seven cuts in a row and his irons are peaking at the perfect time for this second shot course. In his past two starts, the English player has ranked T1 and T6 in GIR at each course, gaining 5.5 strokes on approach, and 8.6 strokes tee to green. These finishes have been a T10 at The PGA Championship and a T20 at The Northern Trust. He has now finished in the top 20 in five of his last seven events.
Also, over his last 12 rounds, he ranks 8th in SG on par fours and 2nd in bogey avoidance. (via Fantasy National) Just like with the two golfers above, Hatton needs to perform this week to secure a spot at The BMW Championship. He moved up 21 spots after the The Northern Trust, to 71st, making this week extremely important. Everything seems to be clicking for him tee to green wise right now and if he can salvage a decent week of putting on these fast greens, Hatton could easily get us a top 20.
Billy Horschel: (8,100)</h4
There’s no denying it, Horschel is playing his best golf of the season. He has made five of his last six cuts, with a T11 at The Wyndham and T3 at The Northern Trust being his last two finishes. In those events, he gained a whopping 9.0 strokes total per start. Additionally, when putting all of these golfers last eight rounds side by side, he ranks 2nd in SGT2G, 8th in SG APP, 3rd in GIR, 4th in ball striking, 23rd in SG on par fours, 3rd in SG on par fives, and 1st in bogeys avoided. (via Fantasy National) The one downfall is that he is 3/5 at this venue, which isn’t bad, but the two MCs have been the past two years. Either way, the form is too strong to ignore right now and if anything, those MCs will just keep his ownerships lower in GPPs.
Loui Oosthuizen: (7,700)
Loui is 4/4 at TPC Boston, including three top 12s. He has made six cuts in a row and has finished no worse than T28 in this run, while averaging 5.8 strokes gained total. A big week is needed if he wants to move on in The Playoffs, with him currently at 69th in The FedEx Cup point standings.
Scott Stallings: (6,700)
Stallings needed to show up last week and he did exactly that, posting a T28 at Ridgewood Country Club. This pushed him up 13 spots in the standings and he is now at 94th in points, making this week an even bigger challenge. I don’t know if will be able to get into the top 70, but he sure as hell is going to give it his best effort in front of his home crowd at TPC Boston this week. (originally from Worcester, about 30 mins from Norton) He has played solid in his home state in the past, making 4/4 cuts at this track. Considering these factors, I think Stallings is worth a dart at only $6,700. (0-1% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Jason Kokrak: (6,700)
Kokrak is also 4/4 at this course, with a T16 in 2014 and T8 in 2016. He has been playing on the weekend in five of his last six tournaments, with his only MC coming at The Open Championship, which was his debut start at the major. He has gained strokes with his approaches in four straight and ranks 7th in GIR in his last 12 rounds. (via Fantasy National) Lastly, he is 66th in FedEx cup points, so, a strong finish is must for Kokrak if he wants his season to continue.