The PGA Tour remains in California this week for The 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Continuing with the trend from The Desert Classic last week, The Farmers Open consists of multiple courses. Each golfer will start the week with a round on The North (par 72, 7,258 yards) and South Course (par 72, 7698 yards) of Torrey Pines, before a cut (top 70 and ties), then the final two rounds will take place at The South Course. With both of these tracks as par 72s (four par fives each), par five scoring is a priority when we are choosing our golfers. The South Course is long and difficult, so much so, it was the host of The 2008 U.S. Open. (Tiger Woods won at only -1) The Farmers’ winning scores have been lower since then (-9.4 over the last five years), but we should still expect a decently difficult test for these players.
As I just said, The South Course is long and having extra distance off the tee has been an advantage. Jason Day won this event last season and he also took home the big check back in 2015. In these two victories, he ranked 2nd and 1st in driving distance, and four of the last five champs at Torrey Pines have ranked T25 or better in distance off the tee. Furthermore, Tiger was 2nd in DD in his 2008 U.S. Open win. Not only do you need to be swinging it well with your driver, but your irons also need to be on point to contend at The Farmers. (all of the last four winners have ranked T14 or better in GIR) While I will put a heavier weight on par five scoring, your play on the par fours is also important, specifically on par fours that fall between 450-500 yards. (there are ten P4s in this range between the two courses) The Farmers Open has a full field of golfers (156) and it is one of the strongest non major fields of the season. After a few lackluster events, this is a great week to fully dive back into DFS golf. @Hunta512.
Tony Finau: (9,900)
Finau is the perfect target for this event. He has the distance (5th in DD), is a strong par four (5th in SG on P4s) and five player (8th in SG on P5s), and elite birdie maker. (9th in BOB% in his L24 rounds) Furthermore, in these last 24 rounds, Finau ranks 3rd in SG on par fours that land between 450-500 yards. To no surprise, in four career starts, Finau has never missed a cut at Torrey Pines, with finishes of T24, T18, T4, and T6 the last four years.
He is currently on a 14 consecutive cut streak, with eight top tens coming during this stretch. For a more recent sample, Finau has three finishes of T16 or better in his last four starts since the beginning of October. Fresh off an outstanding season in 2017-18 (25/28, 19 top 25s, and 11 top tens), Finau is poised for another top ten at Torrey Pines this weekend, and is the best value on the board in my opinion.
Gary Woodland: (9,000)
I don’t like seeing a MC in his last start, but Woodland’s MC at The Sony Open may be a blessing disguise, as it most likely helped soften his price for this week. Based on his history at Torrey Pines, Woodland is very mis priced. He has yet to miss a cut at this event in nine tries, with four top 20s the last five years. Prior to The Sony Open two weeks ago, Woodland had made 16 cuts in a row and finished in the top 25 11 times in that streak.
He ranks 1st in my stat model when comparing all of these golfers recent forms. In his last 24 rounds, Woodland ranks 13th in SGT2G, 6th in SG APP, 5th in BS, 30th in DD, 10th in SG on P5s, 11th in SG on P4s between 450-500 yards, and 2nd in BOB%. He has the 9th best odds to win this week (25/1), but is 12th highest priced player on DraftKings. Woodland should bounce back and post a top 25 this weekend at The Farmers.
J.B. Holmes: (7,900)
Holmes is currently in the midst of a five made cut streak and his power (9th in DD in his L24 rounds) has led him to a 10/13 record at Torrey Pines. He has made the cut here the last five years, posting a T23, T2, T6, T33, and T4, in that order.
In his last 24 rounds, Holmes ranks as the 6th best ball striker in this field. He loves this track and if he can have a decent showing on the greens, Holmes has top ten upside. He is a strong target at only $7,900 and I doubt many people will be on Holmes. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Tiger Woods: (10,500)
Woods’ resume at Torrey Pines is incredible. Excluding a WD in 2015, Tiger is 16/17 at this venue, with 13 top tens, and eight wins. He struggled in his last start (17th at The Hero Challenge), but overall, Woods has made 15 of his last 16 cuts, with seven top tens. He has gained 4.8 strokes in his past ten starts and ranks 7th in SGT2G, 2nd in SG APP, and 9th in ball striking in his last 24 rounds. He obviously hasn’t played much recently (Hero Challenge is his only start since the win at The Tour Championship), but I still think Tiger is worth every cent on this course.
Marc Leishman: (9,700)
Leishman has been outstanding since the beginning of the fall. He won at The CIMB Classic, posted a T18 at The CJ Cup, then went T2 at The Australian PGA Championship, T4 at Tournament of Champions, and T3 at The Sony Open two weeks ago. The Aussie has made 13 straight cuts and ranks 8th in SGT, 8th in BOB%, and 2nd in SG on P5s in his last 24 rounds. In ten career starts, Leish has made eight cuts, and finished inside the top ten four times at Torrey Pines. In this current form, we shouldn’t expect anything less than a T20 from Leishman.
Patrick Cantlay: (9,200)
Cantlay is only 1/2 in this event (T51 last year), but he has posted three straight top tens, and has made his last 15 cuts. He ranks 4th in SGT2G, 3rd in SG APP, 5th in GIR, 2nd in BS, 18th in DD, 1st in SG on P4s, and 14th in BOB% across his last 24 rounds. At only $9,200, which is a massive $1,400 price drop from last week (T9 at The Desert Classic), Cantlay feels like a cash game staple.
Hideki Matsuyama: (8,000)
Matsuyama has also seen his salary dramatically drop (-$1,300) and this is the first time in four years that he has been priced under $10,000 for a Farmers Open. He has made his last ten cuts and is 3/5 at Torrey Pines, with his best finish being a T12 last season. Matsuyama is still one of the best tee to green players in the world (1st in SGT2G, SG APP, and BS in his L24 rounds) and I doubt we see him this cheap again this season.
Kyle Stanley: (7,500)
Stanley has made eight cuts in a row and is 6/8 at Torrey Pines. He has been striking it very well as of late (8th in SGT2G, 11th in SG APP, and 16th in BS in his L24 rounds) and should be playing on the weekend.
C.T. Pan: (7,500)
The strength of this field has brought Pan’s price down $900 from last week. No matter who else is playing, Pan is very underpriced for how consistent he has been. Since The Players last May, he has only missed one cut in 18 starts, with nine top 25s. Pan ranks 10th in SGT2G and 15th in on P4s between 450-500 yards in his last 24 rounds. He lacks distance off the tee, but that hasn’t stopped Pan from succeeding at Torrey Pines (T2 and T35 the last two years), and he should make another cut here this weekend.
Keith Mitchell: (7,000)
In his Farmers debut, Mitchell made the cut last season. (T63) He has only missed two cuts in his last 14 starts and Mitchell has the distance (11th in DD), and iron skills (9th in GIR in L24 rounds), needed for The South Course. I am not expecting a top ten, but Mitchell should top his performance from last season.
Rory Sabbatini: (6,700)
Sabbatini has plenty of experience at this course (10/16 and two top tens) and has made six of his last eight cuts. He is decently long off the tee (300.5 yard average drive in last four starts) and Sabbatini is one of the better gambles under $7,000.
Trey Mullinax: (6,400)
Mullinax is a pure bomber (8th in DD in his L24 rounds) that has shown upside on long tracks like The South Course. (T9 at Erin Hills in The 2017 U.S. Open) He is 1/2 in Farmers Opens and has made two cuts in a row. We can’t expect much, but Mullinax is a decent flier to make the cut.
*Please note that some of these rankings are from Fantasynational.com