This week, The Tour stays in California for The 2018 Farmers Insurance Open. Just like with last week, this event takes place on more than one course and all these golfers will play a round at The North (Par 72, 7,258 yards) and South course (Par 72, 7,698 yards) of Torrey Pines for the first two days, then their final two rounds will be held at The South Course. The player who took down The Career Builder Challenge last week, John Rahm, is the defending champion here at Torrey Pines, shooting -13 in his first career win a year ago. If you couldn’t tell by the yardage, The South course is the tougher challenge of the two courses. To succeed in this event, it is important to shoot low in your round at The North course. With three of your four rounds being at The South course, this is the track we want to focus on statistically. It is a tough and long course and if juggling players, I would side with longer player off the tee. These are some difficult greens to hit consistently and we need to target players who rank well in SGT2G and GIR%. The par fours are important, but the par fives are the holes these players will do most of their scoring. As always, we want to find golfers who rank well in BOB%, but also with The South course being a challenging test, I think bogey avoidance is a stat that is worth a look this week.
There are 156 players in this field and there is a normal top 70 ties cut line. After last week’s weaker field of players, we get a very strong field of golfers to attack for this year’s Famers. More importantly, this is the return of Tiger Woods, as this his is first normal sized golf event he has played in since last year’s Farmer’s Open. This is very exciting and all, but given the strength of this field, I wouldn’t roster much Tiger this week, outside of a few cheap GPP shares just for fun. But overall, this is a great week for DFS golf and it is fine week to use your normal amount of bankroll for cash games and GPPs. @Hunta512.
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Charley Hoffman: (7,200) In my opinion Hoffman is very underpriced at only $7,200. He hasn’t played competitively since mid November and he missed the cut in his last start at The OHL Classic, so we don’t know exactly where he is form is at, but he has plenty of experience here at The Farmers, making his last five of six cuts in this event and 11/20 overall for his career. Before the missed cut at The OHL Classic, Hoffman was one of the more consentient players on The Tour, making 14 straight cuts and posting eight top 25 finishes. His stats were solid in his past two starts, ranking 35th in SGT2G, 15th in ball striking, 28th in strokes gained approaching, 80th in driving distance, 35th in greens hit, and 49th in par five efficiency. (via Fantasy National)
Even though he has had a long lay off, Vegas is still very much respecting the veteran in Hoffman, giving him 55/1 odds to win, which are some of the best odds of all the players priced under $8,000 this week on DraftKings. Realistically, at this cheap of a salary, we only need him to make the cut to get us value. I think he get this done for us, but also has a chance of finishing inside the top 25. It is always subject to change, but right now Fantasy Labs only has him projected for ownership of 5-8% in GPPs, making him a very intriguing tournament play for this week.
Byrson DeChambeau: (7,200) DeChambeau struggled this past weekend at The Abu Dhabi Championship, but before this he was on a serious roll, making seven of his last eight cuts. His game looked very strong in the fall stretch, making all four cuts, including three top 20 finishes. The stats were also compelling during the fall, with him ranking 7th in SGT2G, 14th in ball striking, 17th in strokes gained approaching, 17th in BOB%, 43rd in bogeys avoided, 29th in driving distance, 6th in greens hit, and 13th in par five efficiency. (via Fantasy National)
Yes, he missed the cut here at Torrey Pines last season, but I think his game and overall mind set are at a much better place right. He has all the tools to succeed in this event and I think he rebounds after his disappointing showing overseas last weekend. I don’t think I would roster him in cash games, but he is an ideal GPP target at this price with his low expected ownership of only 2-4%. (via Fantasy Labs)
Kyle Stanley: (7,400) Stanley has been tremendous not missing a cut since last August and finishing inside the top 30 in his last six starts. He is coming off an impressive T10 at The Sony Open, where he ranked in the top ten in both greens hit and par five scoring. Since that last missed cut back at The Wyndham in August, he ranks 12th in DK points, 58th in SGT2G, 98th in strokes gained approaching, 57th in strokes gained putting, 26th in BOB%, 20th in bogeys avoided, 8th in greens hit, and 21st in par five efficiency. (via Fantasy National)
Not only is he a good iron and par five player, but his strong birdie to bogey ratio is exactly what I am looking for at Torrey Pines. It is no surprise that he is 5/7 at The Farmers, including a 2nd place in 2012 and a T14 last season. His 50/1 odds to win are nice for his price and I think he is a rather safe bet to make it to the weekend, that also has top 25 upside.
Also Consider: Keegan Bradley, Trey Mullinax (has made three straight cuts and finished with a T49 last season), Bud Cauley (his stats are awesome and he has posted back to back top 20s. He is hit or miss in this event at 2/4 in cuts, but in both of the made cuts he finished inside the top 25), Alex Noren (no past experience in this event should keep his ownership low), J.J. Spaun (nice bounce back candidate after last week. He finished T9 here last season), Talor Gooch, Billy Horschel, and Lucas Glover.