What’s going on everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings PGA Sleeper Picks for the final event before The U.S. Open, The FedEx St. Jude Classic. Before we get into everything about this week, I first want to go over how my picks did at The Memorial. It was a solid week overall with two of my three main three sleepers making the cut. Kevin Tway was a disappointment in his first time in the event, but Steve Stricker was decent finishing T40th and Pat Perez was a very nice value play finishing T19, that went under owned in GPPs. (5.9% in The Fore) This week The Tour heads to Memphis for The St Jude Classic, that takes place at TPC Southwind. (par 70, 7,239 yards) Daniel Berger took down this tournament last year, winning by three strokes, finishing at -13 for the week.
Long and short hitters can both succeed on this course, the key to winning is gaining strokes when approaching the green. Over the last five years, all five of winners of this event have ranked inside the top ten in greens hit for the week. Berger showed the importance of this just last year, ranking T1 in greens in regulation during his win. As it usually is on Par 70s, par four scoring has been a trend for success on TPC Southwind over these last five years, with four of the last five champs all ranking in the top three in par four scoring their week. Finding players who consistently nail birdies is obviously very important, but being good around these greens has also been a factor in winning here in Memphis, as the last ten winners have had a high 75.5% average scrambling percentage. (via Fantasy Golf Metrics)
As expected, this is a very weak field of players with the year’s second major in just a week. In my opinion, it is a better week to scale back how much of your bankroll you use and to focus more on GPPs and Millionaire Maker Satellites over cash games. Obviously, I still recommended playing, just be smart with how much money you put down with The U.S. Open just a week away. So good luck and if you are looking for more DraftKings picks for The St. Jude, make sure you read Geoff’s post through this link and as always if any of my picks help your lineups or If you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
If you want help with PGA research for DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
Boo Weekley: (6,500) In any other tournament, Weekley wouldn’t be a player I would be very excited about rostering, but he has been a course horse here at TPC Southwind throughout his career. He has always seemed to take advantage of this weak field every year, making 10/11 cuts, with a T8 in 2015, and a T12 last year. His record for this season is ugly, only making eight cuts in 20 events, but he has been better as of late, making two of his last three cuts, including a T48 at The Players, which is obviously a much more competitive field of players than we are seeing this week.
Even though he has had a rough year, he ranks well in most of the key stats we need for this course. He ranks 43rd in strokes gained tee to green, 21st in strokes gained approaching the green, and 58th in GIR percentage (67.17%) this season. He has been an average par four player so far this year (171st), but he has been great on these par fours at TPC Southwind the last two seasons, finishing T7th in 2016 and T4th in 2015 in par four scoring for his last two starts on this course. We can’t expect much, but I feel confident that we will see Weekley playing the weekend again this time around and come with very low ownership in GPPs. (0-1% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
J.T. Poston: (6,700) Poston let a lot of us down at The Bryon Nelson three weeks ago, but there is no chance, the rookie should be this cheap in this very weak field. Outside of that missed cut, he has been extremely consistent, making 10/13 cuts in 2017, with four top 25s, and one top ten. It wasn’t anything spectacular, but he showed us that his missed cut in Texas was just a bump in the road after finishing with a T41 at The Dean & Deluca the following week. That was his first time playing in that event and this will be his first time teeing it up at The St. Jude Classic. Even though he has no history I am not worried at all about him competing this week.
For the season, he ranks 86th in strokes gained tee to green, 67th in strokes gained approaching the green, 102nd in GIR percentage (65.6%), 114th in strokes gained putting, 58th in scrambling, 77th in par four scoring, and 58th in birdie or better percentage. He is the exact type of player we want to target at TPC Southwind, with his strong approach game and par four scoring who can also save themselves when they miss the green. It’s difficult predicting his ownership right now (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but either way, Poston is a player that shouldn’t be ignored at this price.
Danny Lee: (7,200) Lee has seemed to regain his form recently, making three straight cuts, with a 6th place at The Dean & Deluca and a T7th at The Bryon Nelson. He hasn’t had any high finishes here, but he has been solid in the past, making both cuts in his only two attempts, finishing T32 in 2014 and T49 in 2012. When he is on, Lee is a really nice fit here in Memphis with his strong approach game. He struggled last week at The Memorial with his irons (52% GIR), but before this in he was lights out in his back to back tops tens, ranking in the top five in both tournaments in greens hit at an average GIR percentage of 71.5%.
He has been very reliable with his putter all season, ranking 48th in strokes gained putting and if he can get hot with irons Lee will definitely be in the mix here this weekend. The Vegas odd makers seem to agree with me on this, as he has the best odds to pick up a win of all the players priced $7,500 and under on DraftKings this week, at 40/1. There is great upside here with Lee and at only $7,200 he is one of the best value plays of the week.
Also Consider: Graeme McDowell, William McGirt, Tom Hoge, Seamus Power, Harold Varner III, J.B. Holmes (very nice price for him, but is a GPP play only for me right now), Peter Uihlein, Camillo Villegas (10/11 here), Will Wilcox (2/3 with two top 20s), and Nick Watney.