Following another Bryson DeChambeau win, The PGA Tour now heads to Mexico for The 2019 Mayakoba Golf Classic. This event takes place at El Camaleon Golf Club, which is a par 71 (6,987 yards), located in Playa Del Carmen. This course has hosted this tournament since 2007. Patton Kizzire notched his first ever PGA win here a year ago (-19), beating Rickie Fowler by one stroke. For a par 71, El Camaleon is very short. You don’t need to be long off the tee in anyway and most players will elect to club down, naturally improving their accuracy. This course is more about your approach than anything, and if you want to contend, you must be finding these greens at a high rate.
Kizzire ranked T7 in GIR and four of the last five winners have been T11 or better in this stat. As you can tell from Kizzire’s final score, this track surrenders plenty of birdies. You need to be rolling it well with your putter (four of the last five champs have been T8 or better in PPR) and the holes we need to focus on are the par fours. Kizzire led the field in scoring on the par fours last season and he was the third winner in the last five seasons to do so. Overall, we need to target strong ball strikers and birdie makers, who play well on par fours. This is a slightly smaller field than usual (132 players), but there is still a standard top 70 and ties cut line in effect. @Hunta512.
Gary Woodland: (10,700)
Woodland has been outstanding this fall, posting three top tens in a row. He hasn’t missed a cut in 14 starts and is averaging 9.8 SGT in these first three events of this season. When I compare all of these golfer’s last 24 rounds, Woodland is easily the #1 player in my model. During this time, he ranks in the top five in each of these stats. SGT2G, SG APP, BS, SGT, SG on P4s, SG on P5s, and BOB%.
Additionally, Woodland has been very solid with his putter as of late (0.5 SGP in last five starts), which is huge news for the veteran. (-0.4 SGP in his last 169 starts) He has never missed a cut at El Camaleon in three tries, with his best finish being a T2 back in 2016. Woodland is playing some of the best golf of his career right now and I think he is an extremely strong bet for another top ten this weekend.
SI Woo Kim: (9,200)
Kim has been excellent to open this season. He hasn’t missed a cut and has posted finishes of T10, T23, and T15, in that order. He is gaining 5.6 strokes per event and since the start of the fall swing, Kim ranks 1st in SGP, 3rd in BOB%, and 15th in P4 scoring. This is going to be his fourth time playing at El Camaleon. If we ignore his WD in 2016, Kim is 2/2 at this venue, including a solo 3rd place last season and a T17 in 2015.
He loves these greens (27.5 PPR) and with his flat stick extremely hot right now, we could see a huge performance from Kim at El Camaleon this week. The price tag may seem high, but he is actually underpriced for his Vegas odds. He is currently at 35/1 to win (via Bovada), which are the 9th best odds, but he is the 11th highest priced golfer on DraftKings. It may seem risky, but I think we should keep attacking Kim in all formats while he is on this run.
CT Pan: (8,100)
Pan’s price is up, but he still too cheap for how consistent he has been. Dating back to The Players last May, Pan has only missed one cut in his last 16 starts, and has finished in the top 30 in nine of those events. He has gained 3.7 strokes in his last 10 starts, mostly due to his steady tee to green game. (7th in SGT2G, 5th in SG APP, and 11th in BS in his last 24 rounds)
His finishes at El Camaleon have been subpar (50.5 average finish), but he is 2/2 at the course, with these made cuts coming the past two seasons. Pan is playing at a much higher level right now and I think it is safe to expect his highest Mayakoba finish to date this week.
Rickie Fowler: (11,500)
Fowler looked good in his first start of the year (T4 at The Shriners) and he has posted five top tens in his last 11. In his last 24 rounds, Fowler has been top five or better in SG APP, BS, SGT, SG on P4s, BOB%, and SGP. Even as the heavy favorite (8/1 via Bovada), Fowler is slightly underpriced and I recommended having some shares.
Cameron Champ: (9,100)
The former Web.com player has shown no signs of regression in his first three PGA events of the season. He has made each cut, has two top 30s and a huge win at The Sanderson Farms Championship. He is more of a bomber (2nd in DD), but his tee to green game is also at a high level. (14th in SGT2G this season) Champ missed the cut here last season, in his Mayakoba debut, but he is a completely different player right now, and If anything, I think this plays into our advantage, as this may scare some people away from the 23 year old. (35/1 via Bovada)
Abraham Ancer: (8,400)
When it comes to being mis priced based on your Vegas odds, Ancer looks like one of the best values of the week. He is the 19th highest priced player in the pool, but is tied for the 7th best odds to win. (33/1 via Bovada) He has made seven of his last eight cuts, with two top fives coming in his last three starts. Ancer is a special ball striker (9th in his last 24 rounds) and he has made the cut here the last two seasons, including a T9 last fall. At a reasonable price, Ancer presents a nice combination of safety and upside.
Scott Piercy: (8,000)
After a very ugly season in 2017 (17/26), Piercy has started the fall with finishes of T27, T5, and T10. He ranked T10 in fairways found and T17 in GIR during his T10 at The Shriners last week. Piercy’s highest finish at El Camaleon came just two years ago (T4) and he is 4/7 at this event overall. At 45/1 (via Bovada), Piercy is a great GPP target, that should come with a sub ten percent ownership. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Sungjae Im: (7,800)
Last week at The Shriners, Im was stroking it with his irons, ranking 3rd in GIR. Coming off a MC at The Sanderson Farms, this was a positive sign for the 20 year old. He is 3/4 in this young season and is the #1 final round scorer on tour. This will be his debut in Mexico, but I think the rookie should make the cut and has a solid ceiling, considering the way he plays at the end of tournaments.
J.J. Spaun: (7,500)
Spaun has posted a T14 and a T28 here the last two seasons and has made nine cuts in a row. In his last two starts, he has produced a T10 and a T15, while averaging 5.9 SGT. Spaun is a fine target for both cash games and GPPs.
Harold Varner III: (7,300)
Varner was impressive at The Shriners, finishing T15th, which was his fifth top 20 in his last nine starts. Also, during this stretch, he has only missed one cut. In his last start here, he failed to make the cut, in 2016, but the year prior, he shined in his try at El Camaleon, with a T5. Just like last week, I think HV3 will go way under owned. (3.9%)
Danny Lee: (6,900)
Lee has found a nice rhythm since his DQ at The John Deere Classic, making eight cuts in a row. He is the 8th best par four player in his last 24 rounds and if we don’t include his two WDs, Lee is 2/3 at Mayakobas, with a T25 last season, and a T3 in 2014. I don’t think he has top ten upside right now, but Lee should make it to the weekend.
*Please note that most of these rankings are from Fantasynational.com