After a weekend in Las Vegas, The Tour makes it way to Playa Del Carmen, Mexico for the 11th OHL Classic at Mayakoba. This PGA stop has been held at the same venue since 2007, El Camaleon Golf Club, which is a Par 71, that measures in at right under 7,000 yards long. Pat Perez won this event last season, finishing the week at -21. Camaleon is an extremely easy track for PGA players and we can expect a low winning score again, assuming rain doesn’t become a huge factor this weekend. First off, driving the ball long isn’t an advantage at this track. Finding the fairway is more important, but it isn’t super important as the last five winners have averaged a 72.4% DA%. It more comes down to your approach game and converting as many birdies as possible. During the last five years, the champs at Camaleon have stuck a decently high 76.6% of these greens. Also, all of these winners have ranked in the top ten in par four scoring, with two of these golfers actually leading the field in this stat.
I am putting a heavy emphasis on par four scoring, but shooting low on the par fives is also critical, as three of these last five winners have finished inside the top five for par five scoring during their given weeks. As I said, you will need to take advantage of your birdie and eagle chances, making birdie or better percentage obviously important, but I will also be looking at strokes gained putting, and average putts per round. (27.7 average putts per round for the last five champions) For the second week in a row, we stay with a regular top 70 and ties making the cut. @Hunta512.
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Ryan Armour: (7,500) In this current form, Armour’s game sets up perfectly for Camaleon Golf Club. Right now, he rates well in every stat I am looking for this week, as he ranks 3rd in strokes gained tee to green, 2nd in ball striking, 5th in strokes gained approaching, 4th in strokes gained putting, 3rd in birdies or better gained, 2nd in fairways hit, 5th in par four efficiency, and 16th in par five efficiency over his last 12 rounds of competitive golf. (via Fantasy National) He is coming off a T20 at The Shriners and his first career win two weeks ago at The Sanderson Farms Championship, and even though it was a weaker field, he played some very impressive golf, winning by a significant five strokes.
The 41 year old has now made four of his last five cuts in PGA level events. He lacks course history here, only teeing it up at Camaleon once in his career, missing the cut back in 2015. But realistically, this doesn’t bother me in anyway, as his game is at a completely new level right now than it was in previous seasons. I absolutely love his chances of making the cut in his second try here, and he is one my favorite overall plays of the week, especially with his somewhat low expected ownership of 5-8% in GPPs. (via Fantasy Labs)
J.T. Poston: (7,100) Poston had an ugly stretch during the summer, but he has been trending up ever since, making his last four cuts. Last week, he had one of his best showings of his young career, shooting a 66 in his final round at The Shriners, helping him to a great T4 finish. In this start, he played extremely well, nailing 16 birdies, ranking top ten putting average, and leading this field in par four scoring, at -7, which was two shots better than the next player in the field.
After last week, he now ranks 7th in par four efficiency in this field, over all these players last 24 rounds of golf. (via Fantasy National) Plus, Poston has a solid start under his belt at this course, posting a T35th last year. The kid clearly has plenty of talent, and I think he is someone that the DFS Golf world has completely forgotten about over the last couple of months. His ownership is expected to be very low (0-1% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), making him a true sleeper for GPPs this weekend.
Beau Hossler: (6,900) When comparing Vegas odds to the DraftKings pricing this week, the 22 year old Hossler sticks out as a great value, with his 66/1 odds to pick up a win at The OHL Classic. (via Bovada) To put this in perspective, his odds are the same as Austin Cook, who costs $1,200 more this week on DraftKings, at $8,100. Hossler, the 23rd ranked money leader on The Web.com Tour last season, has started this season off strong, making three consecutive cuts, with back-to-back top tens finishes in his last two starts.
To no one’s surprise, his game has looked solid statistically in these last two finishes, with him ranking 9th in strokes gained tee to green, 42nd in strokes gained approaching, 12th in strokes gained putting, 18th in greens gained, and 3rd in par four efficiency. (via Fantasy National) He has never played here before, so I don’t think he can be trusted in cash, but in GPPs, he looks a really like a nice gamble, that can help you squeeze in some high end studs.
Also Consider: Scott Brown, Graeme McDowell, Stewart Cink, Nick Taylor, J.J. Spaun, Taylor Gooch, Martin Flores, Stephen Jaeger, and Brian Gay (very up and down lately, but is 7/7 here, with two top tens).