After a very exciting first major of the season, The Tour now heads to Harbour Town Golf Links (par 71, 7,099 yards), a Pete Dye design, located in Hilton Head, South Carolina, for The 2018 RBC Heritage. Trick shot artist, Welsey Bryan picked up his first ever PGA win here last season, shooting -13 for the week, one stroke over Luke Donald. Unlike last week, this course won’t require much distance. On most of these holes, the players should elect to club down off the tee, to help themselves avoid the trees that surround most of these fairways. Looking at driving accuracy wouldn’t hurt, but with most players keeping their drivers in the bag, everyone will be more accurate by default.
The key part of your game that you need to have going to succeed at Harbour Town is your approach game. These greens are a very small and three of the last five winners have ranked inside the top ten in GIR in their wins. Since the greens are on the smaller side, it also makes sense to find players who can get themselves up and down, making scrambling and strokes gained around the green (SG ARG) worth a look. The par threes and fives are important, but par four scoring is by far the most the important at Harbour Town. Three of the last five champs have led the field in par four scoring, with all five of them ranking in the top ten. So, we must find golfers who are playing well on par fours, specifically in the 400-450 yard range if we can, with six of these par fours falling between those numbers. Instead of getting a very weak field the week right after a major, this field is a decently strong group of players and I think it is a fine week to use a normal amount money in both cash games and [email protected]Hunta512.
Kevin Streelman: (7,300)
No, he isn’t going to get you a win, but Streelman is a pretty safe value play this week. He has been so consistent this year, making 12/13 cuts, with his only MC coming at The Valspar. He is a very simple golfer, who doesn’t make many mistakes, making him an ideal fit for Harbour Town. He hasn’t played here in three years, but overall for his career, he is 5/7 at this track, with his best finish coming 2013 when he posted a T3. His stats are never going to jump off the page, but over his last 12 rounds of golf, he has been standing out as a par four scorer, ranking 14th in par four scoring and 1st in par four scoring on par fours in between 400-450 yards in length. (via Fantasy National)
He is also the 3rd best scrambler on Tour this season, which is perfect for this week, because we all know nobody is going to hit every single one of these small Bermuda greens. $7,300 is just too cheap for a player who has only missed a single cut this season and his current projected ownership of 2-4% in GPPs is just silly. (via Fantasy Labs) A top 25 isn’t out of the question if he can keep it up on the par fours and I will be using Streelman in all formats this week.
Kevin Na: (8,200)
Na has made it the to the weekend in five straight events and is 8/9 this season. For the year, he ranks 52nd in SGT2G, 48th in SG APP, 70th in par four scoring, 11th in par five scoring, 65th in BOB%, 19th in bogeys avoided, 2nd in SG ARG, and 18th in SGP. (via Fantasy National) He hasn’t played in almost a month, but Vegas is not doubting Na at all, with him currently having 40/1 odds to win this week. (via Bovada) His accurate drive, strong iron play and work around the green have helped him build a great history here in South Carolina, with him making 9/12 cuts for his career, including four top tens. His approach game hasn’t been the best as of late, ranking 50th in SG APP over his last 12 rounds, but I am sure he has worked on his irons during this layoff.
Also, he knows this track very well and he is such an elite scrambler, that he should be able to get himself out of most trouble around these small greens. He hasn’t been a popular name at all recently in DFS, with an average ownership of 4.3% in GPPs over his last four starts. I don’t expect things to change much this week (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) and Na is one of my favorite GPP targets at this reasonable price.
Xander Schauffele: (7,500)
He didn’t contend in his first Masters, but Schauffele did his job by the making the cut. (T50) Again, this will be his first time playing at a course, but he is just too cheap and talented to not be considered at this price. Furthermore, his lack of course history should keep his ownership lower than it should be. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) Xander or X as I like to call him, has made four straight cuts, and before the T50 at Augusta, he posted three straight top 20s.
When comparing everyone in this fields last three starts, he ranks 5th in SGT2G, 6th in SG APP, 5th in ball striking, 53rd in GIR$, 29th in par four scoring, 35th in par four scoring on holes between 400-450 yards, 47 in par five scoring, 55th in BOB%, 13th in bogeys avoided, 48th in SG ARG, and 34th in SGP. (via Fantasy National) His 55/1 odds to win are good for someone who has never played here and the last time he played a Pete Dye design for the first time, Schauffele finished with a T15 at The Travelers Championship last June. Not only should he make the cut, but Schauffle has top 25 upside this weekend.
Bryson DeChambeau: five straight made cuts if you don’t include his WD at The Valspar. He missed the cut here last season, but the previous year, he finished T4th.
Zach Johnson: 9/12 at Harbour Town and he finished T36th last week at The Masters, pushing his cut streak to nine.
Kevin Chappell: Would only play in GPPs, but this is a nice chance to get Chappell at a lower ownership after he let people down at The Masters. Before the MC last week, he had made seven straight cuts, finishing no worse than T31st during that run. He is 2/4 here, but he finished T9 last season,
Byeong-Hun An: 7th best par four scorer over his last 12 rounds (via Fantasy National) and he is six for his last seven, with four top 25s.
Rory Sabbatini: Very quietly he has made nine consecutive cuts. He is 5/8 here, with three top tens. He is a GPP play only.
James Hahn: Hasn’t missed a cut all season and is the 7th best approach player over his last 12 rounds. (via Fantasy National)
Lucas Glover: My favorite play under $7,000. He is 11/12 this season and has a decent history at The RBC, making 9/15 cuts.
PLAY THIS LINEUP