After four events overseas, The Tour heads back to The US, for The Shriners Hospital for Children’s Open. This stop takes place at TPC Summerlin, which is a Par 71 located in Las Vegas, Nevada. (7,255 yards) This is event has been held at this desert style course since 2004. It is one of the easiest venues of the season, with the average winning score being -20.4 over the last five seasons. We can expect another birdie fest this year, with the weather looking perfect for golf all four days.
Even though this course measures out on the longer side, most players will all have some added juice off the tee, as this course sits approximately 2,700 feet over sea level. It is better to be long, but I don’t think this means we need to specifically target bombers, because like I said, everyone will be somewhat longer because of the elevation. These greens are on the larger size, but I still think it is smart to target players who rank decently in approach stats. (81.6% average GIR for the last ten winners) The stat that has stood out the most at TPC Summerlin has been par four scoring. Over the last five years, four of the five winners have ranked inside the top five in par four scoring during the week of their wins. I also think par five scoring is worth a look, as three of the par fives here are all good opportunities to score on. (3/4 easiest holes last season)
Since I am expecting low numbers once again this time around, it is a must that we target players who rank well in birdie or better percentage, but also decent putters due to the larger size of these greens. Coming off a few no cut events, we finally get back to a normal sized field (144 players), with a standard top 70 and ties Friday cut line in effect. It’s been a little bit, but with a cut line in play, the main goal is back to getting 6/6 through the cut. Finally, good luck to everyone, and as always if you have any questions or need any advice, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. @Hunta512.
If you want help with PGA research for DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
Morgan Hoffman: (6,800) Hoffman has played well to open this season, posting back to back top 25 finishes, at The CIMB Classic and The C.J. Cup last week. Both of these events were no cut tournaments, but he has also been consistent in normal cut events, finishing last season with five straight made cuts. In these last seven starts, he has been rolling extremely well with the flat stick, putting a low 28.2 averages putts per round. He also is a good putter on bentgrass greens, which are the type he will face this week. Out of the players in this field, he ranks 18th in strokes gained putting on this type of surface, while making the cut 65% of the time the course involves bentgrass greens. (via Fantasy Golf Metrics)
Just recently in his first two events of this season, he has been stellar on par fours that fall between 400-450 yards, ranking first in strokes gained on these holes, of all the players in this field over their last eight rounds. (via Fantasy National) This is a key stat for this week, because six of the 11 par fours at TPC Summerlin are in this range. His history isn’t the best at this track, but he is 2/4 in made cuts, including a T11 two years ago. Coming off two strong performances, Hoffman seems very underpriced in this field, and is a strong GPP target that has top 20 upside. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Bryson DeChambeau: (7,600) In his only start of this season, DeChambeau looked great, finishing with a T17 a few weeks back at The Safeway Open. For a player who started his career as a very tough player to predict, DeChambeau has found some consistency over the last few months. Dating all the way back to The Travelers at the end of June, he has made the cut in seven of his last nine standard cut events, including an impressive win at The John Deere Classic.
His stats have been solid over his last 12 rounds, ranking 14th in strokes gained tee to green, 33 in strokes gained on approach, 25th in strokes gained putting, 11th in strokes gained on par fives, and 38th in strokes gained on par fours. (via Fantasy National) He has only teed it up here once, but in that lone start at TPC Summerlin he had a decent week at this venue, finishing T36th, while hitting 71% of the greens, and averaging 28.8 putts per round. Right now, he is tied for the best odds to win of all the players priced under $7,000 this week, at 66/1. He is a talent I like to target in these weaker fields, and I am comfortable with him in both cash games and GPPs at his $7,600 salary.
Scott Brown: (7,400) Brown has been really trending up over the last few months. He has made the cut in four of his last five events with a cut, and has finished inside the top 25 in three of his last four starts, capped off by a T5 last week at The C.J. Cup, which was an event he was in event he could have potentially won if he didn’t have a difficult Sunday (76), as he was in the final pairing heading into the fourth round. In his last three starts he has been playing well with his irons, averaging a solid 73.2% GIR rate.
Not only has approach play been better during these events, but he also has been terrific on par fours, ranking 2nd in par four efficiency, and 5th on par fours between 400-450 yards. (via Fantasy National) He only has one high finish here (T10 in 2015), but he has made the cut in three out of five times at TPC Summerlin. In this current form, he checks most of the boxes that I am looking for at this track, and I think he has the potential for another top 25 this week.
Also Consider: Kevin Tway, Tyler Duncan, Nick Taylor, Austin Cook, Robert Garrigus, Aaron Wise, Corey Connors, and Russell Knox.