Following Bryson DeChambeau’s playoff victory at The Memorial, we head to TPC Southwind in Germantown, Tennessee, for The 2018 St. Jude Classic. This course is a par 70 that is 7,244 yards in length. Daniel Berger won last season, at ten strokes under par, and this was the second consecutive year he took home the big check in Tennessee. A wide range of player can play well here, but just like last week, this is more of a second shot course than a track that favors bombers. Your game off the tee is still important, as finding the fairway is difficult, but distance isn’t needed. If you want to contend, you must hit as many of these small greens as possible. Over the last five years, only but one of the winners hasn’t ranked in the top ten in GIR during their wins.
Next, we must focus on par four scoring with this being a par 70. I may sound like a broken record when it comes to this, but this means there are 12 par fours and only two par fives, putting the obvious heavier weight on the par fours. (four of the last five champs have ranked in the top ten in par four scoring at TPC Southwind) Berger will be looking to complete a three peat, but there is also a decent amount of big name players teeing it up, like Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, and Phil Mickelson to name a few, but with this being the final tournament before the year’s second major in The U.S. Open, it is wise to watch the WDs closely up until Thursday AM, as the high profile players who have already qualified for next week may decide to use this time for rest. Overall, this isn’t the prettiest field and I think it is a better week to pull back on the amount of bankroll you use, but I would definitely use this week to attack Millionaire Maker Satellites for next week’s major. @Hunta512.
Joel Dahmen: (7,100)
He struggled in 2017, which was his first full time season on The Tour (7/16 made cuts), but Dahmen has played very well this year, making 13/18 cuts, including six for his last eight, with three top 20s in his last three starts. In those three events, the 30 year old out of Washington has been a stud statistically, ranking 8th in SGT2G, 10th in SG APP, 19th in GIR, 10th in ball striking, 6th in par four scoring, and 46th in BOB%, when comparing all of these golfers last 12 rounds of golf. (via Fantasy National) Also, it’s absolutely worth pointing out that in these past three starts, Dahmen has shot under par in 11 of his last 12 rounds, with that lone round being an even par, 71, at The Wells Fargo Championship.
This is a pretty impressive accomplishment and he now heads back to TPC Southwind, where he posted a notable T18th finish last season, which was his first attempt at a St. Jude Classic. This is always subject to change, but at the moment, Fantasy Labs only has Dahmen for a projected ownership level of 2-4% in GPPs. This seems low for him in this form, but either way, Dahmen isn’t a well know name by any means and he should come with a decently low ownership, making him a very intriguing target at this soft price.
Danny Lee: (7,300)
This play isn’t for the faint of heart, but I think Lee is a worth a gamble in GPPs this week at The St. Jude Classic. He has played this track three times before, making the cut in all three attempts. The finishes haven’t been high, with his best being a T32 in 2014, but Vegas is respecting his solid history and giving him 80/1 odds to pick up a win this Sunday. (via Bovada) Do I think he has a realistic chance of winning? Not necessarily, but these are strong odds for his DraftKings price.
Plus, before his MC last week at The Memorial, which shouldn’t have came as a surprise with his questionable record at Muirfield Village (2/5), Lee’s game was getting back on track, with him making five of his last six cuts, with two straight tops 20s, including a T7 at The Players and then a T14 at The Fort Worth Invitational. Even including last week’s MC, he has been putting the ball well, with a 27.3 average putts per round in his last three tournaments. If he can manage a solid week with his irons, like we know he is capable of, Lee has top 20 upside at TPC Southwind. UPDATE: Via Bovada, Lee’s odds have moved from 80/1 all the way to 125/1. This is rather odd considering that this field has only gotten weaker with all the WDs, but this is making me pull back on how much exposure I will have to Lee this week. I still believe he is worth a dart or two in GPPs, but Dahmen is the far superior play, at a cheaper price. His Vegas odds opened at 80/1 and remain at that number on Wednesday morning.
Kevin Tway: (7,800)
After last weekend, Tway has now made four cuts in a row and has made ten of his last 11. He has two top ten finishes in this run, both coming in the last month, with a T9 at The Byron Nelson Championship and a T5 at The Fort Worth Invitational. In his last six starts, he has been much better with his approaches, ranking 36th in SG APP. Additionally, he is 16th in SGT2G, 20th in ball striking, and 14th in par four scoring. (via Fantasy National)
He has played at TPC Southwind two previous times, missing the cut in 2014, but posting a solid T31 last season. I think we can forget about that MC in 2014, as he is a much more consistent player now and I am expecting a made cut out of Tway this weekend. He is a little bit underpriced, in my opinion, and is a relatively safe option, that could contend, if his irons heat up. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat: Three straight made cuts on The PGA Tour and is coming off a T13 at The Memorial, which was only his second time at Muirfield Village. He is never played at TPC Southwind, which is concerning, but he is the 31st ranked player in the world and has 50/1 odds to win (via Bovada), which are great considering his lack of his history. He is never a popular name in DFS and should come with sub ten percent ownership in GPPs. UPDATE: Unlike Lee, Aphibarnrat’s odds have moved in a positive direction, from 50/1 to 35/1. Even though he has become a more popular name in the DFS world, as the week goes on, I will be increasing my exposure to Aphibarnrat.
Shane Lowry: Seven for his last eight and is hitting 70.6% of greens in his last five starts. No course history here, but again, this should just help keep people off him in larger tournaments. Bovada currently is listing him at 66/1 to win.
Ben Crane: Six straight made cuts and just had his best finish of the year, with a T8 at The Fort Worth Invitational. Oh, and he has been a horse at TPC Southwind during his career, making 11/12 cuts, with three top tens, which includes a win in 2014. He is 3rd in par four scoring and 8th in BOB% over his last 12 rounds. (via Fantasy National) Crane is a steal at only $7,400.
Matt Jones: Three for his last four, with a T13 at The Byron Nelson in his last start. He is only 3/6 here, but those made cuts have come in his last three attempts, which were all top 30s, including a T3 in 2015.