Satoshi Kodaira notched his first career PGA Tour win last week at The RBC Heritage and The Tour now heads to TPC San Antonio (Par 72, 7,435 yards) for The 2018 Valero Taxas Open. Kevin Chappell won last year, finishing at -12 for the week, edging out Brooks Koepka by one stroke. TPC San Antonio is a very long course. Unlike like last week at Harbour Town, where distance wasn’t a factor, this week need to target longer hitters off the tee. All of the past five winners have ranked inside the top 25 in distance during their wins, at an average drive of 299.2 yards. Also, another factor that is the opposite from last week is that finding the fairway isn’t a must at TPC San Antonio, compared to very narrow tree lined fairways at Harbour Town.
Another skill you need for success at this track is par five scoring. As a Par 72, there are four par fives at this course. They will be these golfers best opportunities to get in the red numbers and four of the last five champs have ranked in the top ten in par five scoring, with three of them leading the field. Sticking greens, as always, is also critical, with each of the last five winners ranking T17 or better in GIR% in their victories. After back to back strong fields, we get a very weak field of players this week, with Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, and Adam Scott being the biggest names teeing it up. No matter the field, playing DFS golf is fun and enjoyable, but overall, this seems like a better week to pull back on how much of your bankroll you put on the [email protected]Hunta512.
Trey Mullinax: (7,200)
Mullinax is the exact type of golfer I want to target this week. He smashes it off the tee, but also finds the green at a high rate and scores very well on par fives. Over his last 12 rounds of golf, he ranks 1st in driving distance, 31st in SGT2G, 101st in SG APP, 35th in ball striking, 7th in GIR%, 23rd in par four scoring, 4th in par five scoring, 12th in BOB%, 17th in bogeys avoided, and 85th in SGP. (via Fantasy National) He opened the season with a WD, at The Sanderson Farms Championship, but ever since, he has been solid, making 5/6 cuts.
He missed the cut in his first attempt at TPC San Antonio last season, but he was going through a really rough patch during this time, only making two cuts over a stretch of nine events. He is playing much more consistent golf right now and I think we see him make the cut in his second try. If he can find a rhythm with his irons, Mullinax has solid upside and I really like attacking him in GPPs at this low cost.
Abraham Ancer: (6,900)
Ancer is in his best form of the season right now, posting three consecutive top 20s, that was capped off with his best finish of the year, with a T8 at The Houston Open three weeks ago. He hasn’t played since, but he has played here before at The Valero, finishing T42nd back in 2016. He is a much improved player now, making 10/13 cuts this season, compared two years ago, when his T42 at The Valero was his first made cut of the year, after missing the weekend in his first nine starts of the season. During this current run of three straight top 20s, his stats have been excellent, ranking 11th in SGT2G, 23rd in SG APP, 23rd in ball striking, 6th in GIR%, 1st in par four scoring, 31st in par five scoring, 19th in BOB%, 5th in bogeys avoided, and 101st in SGP. (via Fantasy National)
He isn’t the longest hitter on The Tour, but he has decent distance off the tee, with an average drive of 292.5 yards in his last four tournaments. By a wide margin, Ancer has the best odds to win (70/1, via Bovada) of all the players priced at $7,000 or lower on DraftKings this week. One final thing to add is that he is a Texas native, originally from McAllen, which is about three and half hours from TPC San Antonio. He has a legitimate chance of getting another top 20 finish and I think Ancer is a worthwhile target in GPPs at this soft price.
Grayson Murray: (7,300)
He failed to make the cut last week at The HBC Heritage, but I think we need to forget about this, because Harbour Town really in no way is a course that fits Murrays’s game. He is a longer hitter who plays well par fives, which is exactly what we need for this week. Before the MC at The Heritage, Murray finished with back to back T14s, one at The Arnold Palmer Invitational and then one at The Houston Open. Even including his two rounds at The Heritage, Murray ranks 18th in driving distance, 9th in SGT2G, 22nd in SG APP, 15th in ball striking, 43rd in GIR%, 47th in par four scoring, 28th in par five scoring, and 4th in BOB%, when comparing all of these players last 12 rounds of competitive golf. (via Fantasy National)
He can be a volatile putter, but these Bermuda greens aren’t that tough and he putted a solid 28 average putts per round his last time out at The Houston Open. He has never played here before, but if he can manage to have a respectable week on the greens, Murray should make the cut and has the potential for a top 25.
Keegan Bradley: 9/11 in made cuts this season and 2/3 at The Valero, including a T9 in 2011. This finish was obviously awhile back, but he has similar upside in this current form.
Kevin Streelman: 4/4 here and is 13/14 this season. A rather safe play in my opinion, that I feel comfortable playing in all formats. Plus, he just never seems to be a popular play and has a current ownership projection of 9-12% in GPPs. (via Fantasy Labs)
Chris Kirk: Great GPP target coming off a MC. 3/4 at The Valero, with two top 15s.
Keith Mitchell: Eight straight made cuts, including back to back top tens. He ranks 4th in driving distance, 3rd in par five scoring, and 1st in BOB% over his last 12 rounds.
Scott Piercy: Looked great last week at Harbour Town, with a T16. He has made three straight cuts now and has 50/1 odds to win this weekend. (via Bovada) He is 3/4 at TPC San Antonio.