Tiger returned last week and made some noise by making the cut at The Farmer’s Insurance Open, while Jason Day took down the event in a Monday playoff. Now, The Tour heads to Scottsdale, Arizona for The 2018 Waste Management Open. This event is held at TPC Scottsdale, which is a Par 71, coming in at 7,266 yards long. Hideki Matsuyama has won here two years in a row now, finishing -14 in 2016, and then -17 last season. There are some tougher holes, but low numbers should be shot here, with the last five champs finishing at -14 or better, including a dominating -28 win by Phil Mickelson back in 2013.
When looking over the stats, the most crucial part of your game that you need to have going is your irons. You need some length off the tee, but most importantly, you need to find the putting surface as much as possible, as each of the past five winners have ranked inside the top ten in greens hit, with two of those golfers actually leading the field during those given weeks. Par five and par four scoring are also very important, with all of the last five winners, ranking inside the top ten in both par five and par four scoring, outside of Brooks Kopeka in 2015, who dominated the par fours (-11), but didn’t play that well on the fives. (-2) So overall, I will be targeting strong iron players who rank well in SGT2G and GIR%, along with driving distance to a certain extent, par five, par four scoring, and obviously BOB%. Lastly, this a normal sized event, with a top 70 and ties competing on the weekend. It is a decently strong field with the likes of Mastuyama, Jordan Speith, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, and Jon Rahm headlining the event. It should be a fun week for DFS and I think it is fine to use your normal amount of bankroll for cash games and GPPs. @Hunta512.
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Kevin Streelman: (6,800) Streelman’s history isn’t exactly perfect here in Scottsdale, making 5/10 cuts for his career, but with the way he is playing right now, I think we need to let current form out trump course history. He has been extremely consistent since the start of the Fall, making seven straight cuts, finishing in the top 30 in six of those seven starts. He stands out in almost every key stat for this track, ranking 46th in driving distance, 5th in SGT2G, 17th in strokes gained on approach, 1st in greens hit, 10th in par four scoring, and 11th in par five scoring. (via Fantasy National) He hasn’t ranked well in BOB% (112th), but he avoids bogeys so well, ranking first in this category, that it evens out in the long run. He makes very few mistakes and even though he has missed the cut in his last two tries at TPC Scottsdale, I think Streelman finds himself playing on the weekend this time around.
He is 100/1 odds (via Bovada) are solid, but when you factor in how cheap he is, all we really need is for him to make the cut. Not only am I expecting a made cut, but he has top 30 upside, like he has shown us all season. His sub-par resume at this event should keep his ownership low (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but I don’t think this should keep you away from Streelman at this serious discount of $6,800, which is a $700 price drop from his last start and is the cheapest he has been all season.
Keegan Bradley: (7,400) Bradley quietly has been a cut making machine, making the cut in 13 of his last 14 starts. Last week, he played excellent, finishing with a T5, ranking in the top ten in GIR and par four scoring. Not only is he making cuts, but he has been awesome statistically since the start of the season. In his past 18 rounds of golf, he ranks 6th in SGT2G, 4th in strokes gained on approach, 11th in greens hit, 44th in driving distance, 25th in par four scoring, 75th in par five scoring, and 26th in BOB%. (via Fantasy National)
He has been even better with his irons in his last two starts, as the 3rd ranked player in SGT2G in this field, when comparing every golfer last eight rounds of golf. He is also 4/6 at The Phoenix Open, with all four of those made cuts being top 25 finishes. I love Bradley at this price and I feel like he may go slightly under owned with a good amount of bigger names in this $7,000 price range. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Scott Piercy: (7,500) Piercy was awful at the end of last season (four straight MCs), but he has rebounded nicely so far this year, not missing a cut in his first five starts. In his last time out, he played great at The Career Builder Challenge, posting a T6 finish, shooting under par in all four of his rounds. His main struggle last season was his iron play, but he has drastically improved when approaching the green this season, along with most of the stats I am targeting this week. In these first five starts of the year, he ranks 11th in SGT2G, 10th in strokes gained approaching, 41st in greens hit, 63rd in driving distance, 50th in par four scoring, 14th in par five scoring, and 18th in BOB%. (via Fantasy National)
Plus, his history is strong at TPC Scottsdale, making 8/9 cuts for his career, including three top tens. I am expecting another made cut this week, with top 20 upside out of Piercy. He hasn’t played in a few weeks and is never really a popular option, so I am expecting a decently low ownership for him in GPPs. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Patton Kizzire (2/2 here and seven straight made cuts), Kevin Chappell (back to back top 25s and is 5th in SGT2G in these two starts), Zach Johnson (might be popular, but is 6/8 here, with three straight top 15s over the last three seasons and hasn’t missed a cut this season. ZJ is one of the better cash game targets of the week), Ollie Schniederjans (should come with a low ownership after missing two of his last three cuts. Did have a T24 here last season and his game sets up well for this track), Charley Hoffman (7/11 here), Xander Schauffele (should be low owned after letting down a solid amount of people down last week. Also, this his first time in this event, but we all know the talent is there), Francesco Molinari, Bryson DeChambeau, and Anirban Lahiri.