What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings PGA sleeper picks for The Waste Management Phoenix Open. We are coming off a nice week for sleepers with all three of my main picks making the cut with Trey Mullinax and Adam Hadwin both finishing T49, and Robert Streb finishing with a very respectable T9. Lets hopefully keep the streak going this week at one of the best non-major events of the year, The Waste Management Phoenix Open. This tournament is held at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona. The course is a par 71 that measures in at 7,266 yards. Hideki Matsuyama is the defending champion shooting -14 winning the event in a playoff over Rickie Fowler. We can expect low scores again this week with the average winning score being -18 over the last four seasons.
Great greens in regulation players can dominate here, with the average GIR percentage of the last two winners being a very high 76.5%. Longer hitters can definitely have an edge here on the holes they won’t be forced to club down. Like most weeks, we need to target players who have a strong tee to green game and consistently nail birdies. This week I will be focusing on strokes gained tee to green, greens in regulation percentage, strokes gained approaching the green, birdie or better percentage, proximity to the hole, and strokes gained putting. For the second week in the row we get a very strong field of players to choose from. It is another great week for DFS golf, as this is one of the best events to watch on TV, especially the famous par three 16th hole, which is known as the “loudest hole in golf”. Have fun and enjoy this great week of golf, and as always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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Robert Streb: (6,800) Streb is officially back. He is coming off a great performance last week at The Farmers finishing T9th and has now made five straight cuts. This is going to be his third time competing here at TPC Scottsdale, with a T37 last season, and a T10 in 2015. So far this year on The Tour, he ranks 133rd in strokes gained tee to green, 72nd in GIR percentage (73%), 84th in strokes gained putting, 25th in driving distance, and 145th in birdie or better percentage. He has the perfect game to succeed here with his strong GIR game and distance. It all depends on how he can put on these Bermuda greens.
He has a solid history of making cuts in tournaments with these same type of greens, making 72.5% of his cuts in events with Bermuda greens, based on a sample size of 51 events. (via Fantasy Golf Metrics) If he can roll it like he did back in 2015, when he had a solid 28.5 putts per round, he has a great shot of posting a top 20 finish. Even though he was great last week, his price has dropped $100 and Fantasy Labs is only projecting him to be owned between 2-4%. This ownership level is crazy to me when considering his course history and current form. He is a steal at only $5,900 and is a great play in both GPPs and cash games this week.
Daniel Berger: (7,000) I know Berger was garbage last week at The Farmers, but he is just way too cheap to ignore this week at only $7,000. He is one of the best young players on The Tour ranking 34th in the official world golf rankings, and before last week he had made a ridiculous 21 straight cuts. This season he has been solid making 5/6 cuts with a T14 at The SBS Tournament of Champions and T2 at The WGC HSBC. This season on The Tour he ranks 53rd in strokes gained tee to green, 59th in GIR percentage (73.6%), 125th in strokes gained putting, 54th in strokes gained approaching the green, and 40th in birdie or better percentage.
Berger is known as a bomber, but surprisingly ranks 123rd in driving distance this season with an average drive of 290 yards. But he has been looking more like himself off the tee lately, with an average drive of 298.6 yards over the last six weeks. Just like Streb, Berger’s distance and GIR skills have helped him make both of his cuts here at TPC Scottsdale, finishing T58 last year and T10 in 2015. At this price, I think we have to forget about his bad performance last week at The Farmers. He should bounce back this week on this course he is familiar with and is great play at only $7,000.
Roberto Castro: (6,900) Castro has been very consistent making 5/5 cuts this season and 27 of his last 32. He isn’t a long hitter, but his nice overall game and iron play keeps him in play on most courses. His stats aren’t very flashy, but this year on The Tour, he ranks 70th in strokes gained tee to green, 94th in strokes gained approaching the green, 130th in GIR percentage (69%), and 184th in birdie or better percentage. The one stat that stood out to me is that he ranks 12th in proximity to the hole, which could be big for him this week at TPC Scottsdale where approaching the green is very important.
He also has a pretty solid track record here at The Waste Management, making both cuts in his two tries, with a T16 in 2013 and a T19 in 2014. He obviously hasn’t played here in over two years, but he is a better player now than he was back in 2013 and 2014, when he only made 46% of his cuts over those two seasons. In this current form, he is a good bet to make the cut with solid upside based on his history on this course.
Also Consider: Louis Oosthuzien, Marc Leishman, Michael Kim (made four straight cuts, finished 45th here last year), Bryce Molder (7/8 here, T6 last season, has made four straight cuts), Zach Blair, Patrick Rodgers, and Lucas Glover.