What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings PGA Sleeper Picks for The WGC Mexico Championship. Last week was a decent week for me at The Honda Classic. John Huh and Trey Mullinax let me down missing the cut, but Anirban Lahari, who I had a good amount of exposure to, was in contention for most of the weekend and finished with a very respectable T11. This week we head to Mexico City for the first ever WGC Mexico Championship that takes place at The Club de Golf Chapultepec. This course is a par 71 that is 7,330 yards long, but it should play much shorter when considering its very high elevation of 7,780 ft over sea level. The air is thinner and a lot of these holes are downhill, so the ball should fly off the tee this week. This is the first ever PGA event here so we have zero course history to go off. 49 of the top 50 golfers in the world will be competing, but Mexican player Roberto Diaz is the only player in the field who has ever played in an event at this track.
As I said above, this course should play very short. There are ten par fours on the course with six that are very short all measuring under 406 yards. Some of these holes are very reachable and I am expecting very low scores this weekend.After looking through the hole by hole lay out, this course looks extremely easy if you stay out of the woods that surround these fairways. I am just guessing here, but I think the winning score will be close to -20 here at Chapultepec. These are POA type greens just like most of the courses we just saw on the west coast the past few weeks. I think bombers could potentially have an advantage, but most players should be able to hit it farther than usual in this elevation. Overall with no course history, I think we need to mainly focus on current form, overall talent, and DraftKings scoring. It’s pretty straight forward, but the main stats I will be looking for are strokes gained tee to green, greens in regulation, strokes gained putting, birdie or better percentage, strokes gained approaching the green, par four scoring, and driving distance (not a must).
Even though this is a stacked field I recommended that you scale back how much of your bankroll you use this week. Like most no cut events, I think it is better to focus on GPPs over cash games, especially with this being a course that we don’t know much about. It is obviously still a good week to play that should be fun with such a strong field of players, I just think it is the smart move to not fully dive in with your usual amount of bankroll. Also if your looking for more golf picks this week check out Geoff’s DraftKings picks through this link and Keegan’s betting picks this through this link. As always if any of these picks help your lineups or if you need any advice let me know on Twitter.
If you want help with PGA research for DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
Jhonattan Vegas: (6,600) Vegas has been one of the most consistent players on The Tour this season making 8/9 cuts overall. He has now made eight straight cuts and is coming off his best finish so far this year with a T4 at The Honda Classic. Besides his missed cut to start the season at The Safeway Open back in the fall, he has not finished worse than 45th place in these past eight tournaments.
His stats reflect the kind of the year he is having, ranking 30th in strokes gained tee to green, 69th in strokes gained approaching the green, 41st in GIR percentage (71.4%), 66th in par four scoring, and 55th in birdie or better percentage. Not only is he consistently making cuts, but he also is a very strong DraftKings scorer, averaging 79.7 DK points in his last five events. He should be able to handle the altitude at Chapultepec and I am expecting a top 30 finish out of him this week.
Bill Haas: (7,000) If you want to take the course manager approach this week with this being a course we are very unfamiliar with, Haas makes a lot of sense at his cheap price. He has yet to miss a cut this season and has finished no worse than 20th place with a T4 at the other WGC event this year, The HSBC Champions. This season on The Tour he ranks 20th in strokes gained tee to green, 56th in strokes gained approaching the green, 24th in GIR percentage (73.1%), 3rd in par four scoring, 24th in birdie or better percentage, and 14th in strokes gained putting.
He has been even better with his putter over the last six weeks, with a very low 27.2 putts per round, which is the 3rd lowest in the field for this stretch. Also over his last three events, he is scoring a great 85.7 DK points per tournament, which is the highest average of any player $7,000 and under this week. Overall he is one of the most dependable players on The Tour and seems very underpriced at only $7,000. Haas isn’t going to win the event, but he is a solid bet to finish inside the top 20 this week.
Bernd Wiesberger: (7,100) The Austrian player has yet to play in a PGA event in the new year, but he has been killing it overseas making four straight cuts, with a T4 at The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and a 3rd place at The Maybank Championship just two weeks ago. He is now 10th in The Race to Dubia standings and is the 36th ranked golfer in the world.
Wiesberger doesn’t rank statistically on The Tour, but over the last six weeks he is posting some very impressive stats. In this span he has a GIR of 75.6%, an average drive 295.5 yards, a 29 average putts per round, and an adjusted round score of 68.8. He is in excellent form right now and is a nice value that may go under owned because he is not that well know in the states. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Lee Westwood, Danny Willet, J.B. Holmes, Sam Brazel, Chris Wood, Russell Knox, Alexander Noren, and Thomas Pieters.