Hey guys I’m back for the Genesis Open this week, formerly the Northern Trust Open for those of you who were as confused as I was when I first started my research. Last week went very well for me at Pebble Beach and I hope it did for you guys as well. Although none of the four picks ended up winning, they still did very well and if you had some top 5/10/25 bets on them you should have made out OK.
My four picks last week were Dustin Johnson, Shane Lowry, Pat Perez and Sean O’Hair. O’Hair was the only one who missed the cut and he did so by one stroke. Pat Perez came back from his withdrawal last week to finish in a tie for 14th along side Shane Lowry, while Dustin Johnson does what he does and finished in solo third, five shots behind Spieth who played solid all four rounds.
We’ll try to pick the winner this week, but don’t forget to look into those top 5/10/25 bets as well. Nailing the winner in golf is extremely difficult and you can give yourself a better chance at building your bankroll if you find some value in the top finish wagers that provide solid payouts as well.
Odds for the Genesis Open:
- Jordan Spieth: 8-1
- Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama: 9-1
- Jason Day: 14-1
- Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Justin Thomas: 22-1
- Justin Rose: 25-1
- Brandt Snedeker: 30-1
- Bubba Watson: 33-1
- Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson: 40-1
- JB Holmes, Brooks Koepka: 45-1
- Paul Casey: 50-1
- Bill Haas, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Moore: 55-1
- Brendan Steele: 60-1
- Shane Lowry, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace: 66-1
This week, the PGA Tour heads to Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California for the Genesis Open. Riviera is a par 71, 7,300 yard course that seems to favor the long hitters. Guys like Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson have extremely good course history here because the par 4’s are extremely long and the rough isn’t too penalizing. It looks like the course may be damp as well, which should favor the bombers even more as long as it doesn’t get too out of control. I’ll be focusing a lot of my attention on driving distance, par 4 scoring and strokes gained tee to green. This tournament is star studded with eight of the top ten players in the world attending (Stenson and McIlroy being the ones absent) and 16 of the top 25.
Let’s get to the picks this week:
Dustin Johnson (9-1): I almost went with Jason Day in this spot just because of the value (14-1 odds), but I couldn’t pass up on DJ at 9-1. He has everything working for him again this week with great course history and solid current form. Johnson has five, top-five finishes at this course since 2010, which is just silly. In his last three starts here he’s finished 4th, 2nd, 2nd. Of the top studs this week, Johnson has by far the best course history. Spieth has been okay with a MC, 4th, 12th, MC in his four starts here. Matsuyama has been solid with a 11th, 4th and 23rd place finish. Jason Day hasn’t played here since 2012, but in his only three starts he missed the cut twice and finished 62nd the time he did manage to make it. You do have to consider the fact that he’s a much different player now than he was back then. Aka he’s still the #1 ranked golfer in the world despite not having a win since last May. All that being said, I love Johnson this week as my stud. Combine his fantastic course history with his recent form and you have a guy that is nearly guaranteed in the top 10. In his last 14 starts on tour he’s only missed the cut twice. In those same 14 starts he has three wins, and ten top-10’s. The dude has more wins than missed cuts. Lock it in.
Paul Casey (50-1): I love the value this week for Paul Casey at 50-1 odds. In his four starts at Riviera since 2008, he’s finished 22nd, 12th, 2nd, and 39th. Obviously, pretty solid results given the small sample size. Casey has just one missed cut in his last 12 starts so he’s playing solid. Recently, he’s hitting it around 300 yards and hitting nearly 75% of his greens in regulation. Both tell me that he’s striking it well and he may just need to put a round together with the flat stick. The only issue is he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2009 (he does have a win on the European Tour in 2014, 2013 and 2011) so I won’t be putting too much 1st place capital on him, but I do love the chances of a top 5 finish. Late last season during the 2nd, 3rd, and last tournament of the FedEx Cup, he finished 2nd, 2nd and 4th, which tells me he can finish high with the best in the world. I think he does it once again and you gotta love those 50-1 odds.
JB Holmes (45-1): Holmes is certainly an intriguing play this week at 45-1 odds. The long ball hitter has excellent course history here, making nine of ten cuts, including an awesome six top-15’s. In his last three starts here, he’s improved on his finish each time, placing 52nd, 22nd, and 11th so if he can improve once more he might be able to take first place. Holmes recent form is also solid. He has made eight straight cuts, but with him you’re more worried about if he can take first place which I think he can this week. Last week at Pebble, he hit 65% of his fairways which is a pretty impressive number for a guy that averages around 310 yards. If he can put it all together this week I like his chances of a high finish.
Long Shot Value Pick
Scott Piercy (140-1): The 38th ranked golfer in the world comes to Riviera this week with very solid recent form and a great payout of 140-1. Piercy has made 13 cuts in a row and has three top-10’s since the start of the fall season. He has three wins on tour since 2011 and he’ll be looking to put together four solid rounds this week for a high finish after the last few tournaments have been killed by a high weekend number. His course history is a little iffy with two missed cuts in his last five starts and not finishing higher than 45th, but he’s playing some of the best golf in his career right now ranking inside the top 30 in strokes gained: off-the-tee, approach-the-green, and tee-to-green. I think he can turn it around this week at Riviera for a career high finish, hopefully inside the top 25. And just for fun, throw a few units on him as the winner and you never know what can happen. Turn $5 into $700? Yeah I certainly wouldn’t mind that would you?
Other favorite Genesis Open Picks: Grayson Murray (200-1), Brooks Koepka (45-1) and Justin Thomas (22-1)
Make sure you check out Geoff’s article for his favorite DraftKings plays of the week.
Good luck this week and make sure to follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28