Nelson Mandela Championship Picks 2012 – Golf Picks

This week presents 3 golf tournaments on most betting exchanges. They are in Thailand, Australia and South Africa and all serve as pretty good opportunities to turn a profit. My picks this week are coming from the South Africa Tour at the Nelson Mandela Championship as I think it presents the best opportunity of the week.

The Course

The tournaments stage is a short par 70 that stretches a little under 6800 yards and puts a massive value on keeping the ball on the fairway as the rough is ugly making approach shots a potential flying disaster on every hole not to mention a fair amount of sand protecting the greens. I love these shorter course opportunities usually as it brings in a bunch of high odds players that have a real shot at winning. They are expecting sub par weather this week which does change at least two of my original picks as they tend to “sweep” the ball and that doesn’t translate well in wet weather.

The Players and Picks

You’re going to want to bet these at for the biggest payouts!

Espen Kofstad- 66/1 – 1 Unit

To be honest I just kept coming back to Espen because of the value offered here. I feel like he should be paying half of this for a few reasons. Firstly he won in October with a mind blowing -19 on a track that chews up some of the best players in the game. The very next tournament was in South Africa and he was hot out of the gates with a 69 -70 in the first two rounds and then lost his way a bit to finish a very average T42 but this was largely a result of a few bad and very untimely holes. He is #1 on the challenge tour and I think he just may be on the brink of becoming a name that you remember. Let’s go Espen.

Thomas Aiken – 16/1 – 1 unit

I’m already a huge fan and although I wish he was paying a bit more I’m feeling a lot more comfortable betting on this tournament knowing that this native South African is on my team for this tournament. He recently tied for 3rd at the SA open and played very well at the world Tour in Dubai up until the final round when the wheels fell off. If his flat stick is working well this week you can expect him to be in the running from day 1 onward.

Soren Kjedsen – 66/1 – 1 Unit

Just an amazingly consistent golfer. Two things are certain. 1. This Danish flag hunter is bound to win at some point, 2. It is going to happen at a course with a similar layout to the one being played this week. Sticking with the theme of keeping the ball in the fairway and patiently taking your birdie chances on the right holes, this guy is it. He is a Chess player on the golf course that I think it could pay dividends this week at Royal Durben.

Marc Warren- 33/1- 1 unit

Marc is another player who matches my general criteria. Give him one or two less strokes per tourney in the past few tournaments and this Scotsman would be a household name and would have at least a couple of wins under his belt just in the past few months. In the name of complete transparency I should note that I have some Scottish blood so there is a slight bias associated with Marc. I can assure you though that I never bet with my heart, just my brain and at 33/1 Marc is a great pickup and has and equal or greater ability to win this tournament as the guys who are paying much less.

David Horsey – 66/1 – .5 Unit

I feel like our last pick is be a popular one this week as unlike most of our other picks I was hoping for closer to an 80/1 payout here. At 66/1 I still feel like he is a likely winner so the value still exists. Although Davis is a bit streaky and has gone in the wrong direction from a putts per round perspective on the European Tour I’m still backing him for this tournament. He’s due for a win and again, this course suits his game from tee to green. I feel like a good first round here will have the field on their heels as they’ve seen first hand what he is capable of.

Merrick Bremner, 125/1 – .5 units

This pick only makes sense in South Africa. He just excels out there on the Sunshine tour and is one of those guys that seems to be a contender every week. He’s just too tough to pass up at 125/1 and I have great confidence that we will be picking him up in 2013 at about 50-1. He reminds me of a South African version of Dufner. He has struggled putting 4 good rounds together and still manages to be a contender. Lets get him before his price doesn’t make sense any more.


Jiggs Hudson