Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Picks

Hey guys I’m back for PGA season! Now that NFL is over, I’m getting back in the swing of things with my second favorite sport, but the one I can actually play decently myself. I’m going to post a weekly PGA Tour article previewing my favorite betting picks for the upcoming tournament. Each week, I’m going to pick a stud, two mid-tier guys, and a long shot that could possibly win. Betting on golf can be extremely challenging because of the long odds and difficulty predicting the actual winner, compared to DraftKings where you need to balance cut making with upside. Make sure you’re distinguishing between the two of them because there is a strategy for each. I’m going to pick guys that I think have a chance to win, which will include high upside players that may end up missing the cut altogether, but I’m not going for guys that are cut makers with low upside. With all that being said, let’s get into this week!

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am will be played on three different courses: Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Shore. Pebble beach will be played twice including the final round on Sunday. This event is much different than a normal tournament so experience is going to play a key factor for me in determining which players I want exposure to. The brutal slow pace, strange three course format and a course littered with celebrities can all be distracting and frustrating if a player hasn’t been exposed to it previously. Also, make sure you pay attention to the weather as it looks like it will be rainy on Thursday and Friday.

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Let’s take a look at my favorite betting plays of the week:

Stud

Dustin Johnson (8/1): My favorite stud this week is Dustin Johnson. He’s currently the favorite to win the tournament at 8/1, right in front of Jordan Spieth (9/1) and Jason Day (12/1). I realize picking the favorite seems somewhat silly, but he’s the favorite for a reason and I’ll be all over him this week. His tournament history is spectacular with two victories, a 4th and 5th place finish in his last eight trips here. Based on these results, I’d say he’s more than comfortable with the three course format. He is coming off a missed cut two weeks ago at Torrey Pines, but this isn’t going to be of much concern to me as he’s had two weeks to get his mind and game ready for one of his favorite tournaments of the season. As a reminder, his previous two tournaments before that missed cut he finished 2nd and 6th so his game isn’t completely lost if recent form is a concern for you.

Mid-Tier

Shane Lowry (45/1):  At 45/1 you can get some serious value out of the Irishman this week. He’s coming into this tournament with solid recent form as he has made his last eight cuts, finishing inside the top 25 on five of those occasions. Last week, he finished 16th, hitting 80% of his greens and ranked third in the field in strokes gained: tee to green. This tells me he’s hitting the ball extremely well right now and with putting being such a noisy statistic to count on, if he can roll in a few this week I think he has a chance to finish high. He’s played in this tournament the last two years with a 21th and 41st place finish, which I realize isn’t spectacular but there is something to say for experience and comfort. The wet conditions might also play a factor in helping him this week as we all know Ireland isn’t all that wonderful when it comes to the weather.

Pat Perez (55/1):  Perez isn’t much of a sexy play, but I like him a lot this week at 55/1. His recent form is solid with six straight made cuts including these results: 4th, 69th, 3rd, 1st, 7th in his last five which is just ridiculous (not including his WD last week). He has two career victories on the PGA Tour so he has shown the ability to get it done, which is always important when betting on players to win. His tournament history is also extremely solid with five straight made cuts with a 7th place finish in 2014 and a 4th place finish in 2015. Pat Perez for all the money this week. Lock it in. (*With his WD last week make sure he’s healthy – I will update this article if I hear anything).

Value Play

Sean O’Hair (90/1):  My favorite long shot this week is Sean O’Hair. He’s made the cut in his last five starts so he’s playing very well right now. During that span, he has a 9th, 10th and 11th place finish, showing he has the upside to be near the top of the leaderboard. To make things even better, he has made eight straight cuts here, including seven top 35 finishes. O’Hair has won four times on the PGA Tour, but his last victory came in 2011. Maybe he can get back to the podium again this week at a tournament he’s shown he can compete in. Combining recent form with course history and the fact he’s 90/1, as Cam Brady would say, “I’ll take those odds..any day of the week.”

Other favorite plays: Brandt Snedeker, Adam Hadwin and Phil Mickelson,

Good luck this week guys.