What a week. The Masters is over and we all have to somehow manage to move on to the RBC Heritage as difficult as that might be. Sergio Garcia was able to overcome all the demons in his past and came away with the green jacket he desperately wanted. Personally, I was rooting for Spieth and Fowler to make some noise on Sunday, but both struggled and Sergio absolutely deserved the victory. The picks last week went pretty darn well except for the omission of Sergio. I had wrote up Justin Rose who obviously lost in the playoff to Garcia. Had he not hit his tee shot in the woods in the playoff it definitely would’ve been more interesting. I also wrote up Rickie Fowler and Paul Casey, both of whom finished in the top 11 spots. The other three picks of Daniel Berger (T27), Brendan Steele (T27) and Emiliano Grillo (51) all made the cut, but weren’t able to make a move toward the top.
Odds for the RBC Heritage:
- Matt Kuchar: 14-1
- Brandt Snedeker: 20-1
- Adam Hadwin: 22-1
- Russell Henley, Bill Haas, Branden Grace, Kevin Kisner, Tyrell Hatton: 25-1
- Martin Kaymer, Charley Hoffman, Matthew Fitzpatrick: 28-1
- Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Jason Dufner: 33-1
- Billy Horschel, Marc Leishman: 35-1
- Bryson Dechambeau, Russell Knox, Shane Lowry, Kevin Na, Pat Perez, Francesco Molinari, William McGirt: 40-1
- Graeme McDowell, Charles Howell III, Keegan Bradley: 50-1
- Patrick Cantlay, Wesley Bryan: 60-1
- Anirban Lahiri, Rafael Cabrera Bello, Danny Willett, Jason Kokrak, Kyle Stanley, Lucas Glover: 66-1
- Luke List, Webb Simpson: 70-1
- Chris Kirk, Martin Laird, Stewart Cink: 80-1
- Graham Delaet: 90-1
- Aaron Baddeley, Harold Varner III, Harris English, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, JJ Spaun, Ollie Schniederjans, Sung Kang, Danny Lee: 100-1
Adam Hadwin (22-1): A lot of people will probably go with Kuchar or Sneds, but I love the next guy this week. Adam Hadwin is on the best stretch of his career right now and it doesn’t appear he’s going to slow down anytime soon. Last week he played at the Masters and was solid once again, placing 36th, which is far from easy for a first timer. His current form is phenomenal with only one missed cut back in October and six top-25’s in 12 starts this season including the win a month ago at the Valspar Championship. He played this tournament twice and finished in 30th in 2016 and missed the cut in 2015. Let’s not forget, this dude is on a whole different level now and I won’t look too much into those poor results. He is ranking really well in the stats this season and especially for ones you’re going to be targeting at a short track like Hilton Head. He ranks 29th SG: Approach, 7th SG: Putting, 4th in Scrambling and 3rd in Par 3 scoring. All viable statistics to keep in mind this week as the small greens will be hard to hit and scrambling will be of the utmost importance.
Mid Tier Value Picks
Pat Perez (40-1): Has anyone had more of a quietly awesome season than Pat Perez? Perez hasn’t missed a cut all season (did withdraw once) and has four top 10’s in just 12 starts. He also has a win back in November so he has shown solid upside to get the victory in weaker fields like this one. Perez played very well at the Masters as well, finishing in 18th place while hitting 71% of the fairways (another key stat this week). His course history is very impressive with finishes of: 26-18-18-6. Perez is a guy that can get it done around the greens this week, leaving himself with easy par putts when he doesn’t hit the small greens. He ranks 22nd in SG: Around the Green. He’s playing extremely well right now and I think he finishes high this week once again.
Wesley Bryan (60-1): Bryan is one of my favorite plays on the week at 60-1. Plain and simple, he has tons of upside to get the win this week at those odds. He’s made six cuts in a row and finished inside the top 7 in three of those. He’s never played this course professionally, but it seems it’s one he has always dreamed of. Check this Instagram post out from Wesley. He’s from South Carolina and it’s clear this tournament is important to him. I’d have to guess he’s played here several times in the past so familiarity isn’t something I’m concerned with. He ranks really well in some stats I’m looking at this week as well. He’s inside the top 35 in SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Scrambling, and Par 3 Scoring. Oh and did I mention he won three times on the Web.com Tour last year? The guy’s a flat out winner.
Long Shot Pick
Luke List (70-1): Luke List is a prototypical bomber (ranks 3rd in driving distance) and a lot of people will tell you this is not a bomber’s track this week and they’re certainly right, but he does have the upside to get his first PGA Tour victory. Given that he hits it extremely long, he’s going to be forced to play long irons/fairway metals and he’ll probably hit way more fairways than he’s used to. He comes into this tournament having the best season of his young career making 12 of 15 cuts. He’s made five in a row including a third place finish in his last start at the Shell Houston Open. He also played here last year and placed 39th. He ranks 18th in SG: T2G, 36th in SG: Approach, 36th in Scrambling and 8th in Par 3 Scoring. Long shot with the upside to win.
Other favorite bets: Russell Henley (25-1), Martin Kaymer (28-1), Lucas Glover (66-1), Charley Hoffman (28-1)
Good luck this week and make sure to follow me on Twitter!