Welcome back guys. After a week off, I’m here to give you some of my favorite bets for the Shell Houston Open. Considered a tune up for the Masters, the Shell Houston Open will be an exciting tournament with many of the top players in the world teeing it up as 10 of the top 25 in the world will be here led by Jordan Spieth and Henrik Stenson. Being a week before the Masters, it’s vital to understand that this is the last chance for guys who haven’t earned their invitation to Augusta to claim their spot, as the winner here gets the invitation if he hasn’t already. Jim Herman did this last year as he fended off Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson down the stretch.
If you want more information on the course and Draftking’s plays, check out Alex and Geoff’s articles.
Odds for the Shell Houston Open:
- Jordan Spieth 6.5-1
- Jon Rahm 10-1
- Henrik Stenson 12-1
- Rickie Fowler 14-1
- Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson 20-1
- Adam Scott 25-1
- J.B. Holmes, Russell Henley 33-1
- Daniel Berger, Tony Finau 35-1
- Billy Horschel, Patrick Reed 40-1
- Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Charles Howell III 45-1
- Charley Hoffman, Rafa Cabrera Bello 50-1
- Jason Dufner, Jimmy Walker 60-1
- Bryson Dechambeau, Jhonattan Vegas, Keegan Bradley, Lucas Glover, Peter Uihlein 66-1
- Lee Westwood, Bernd Wiesberger, Hudson Swafford, Nick Watney, Ollie Schniederjans 80-1
- Jim Herman, Jamie Lovemark, Kevin Chappell, Ryan Palmer, Brian Harman, Cameron Smith, Harold Varner, JJ Spaun, Jason Kokrak, JT Poston, Kyle Stanley, Luke Donald, Luke List, Matt Jones, Cameron Tringale, Chris Wood 100-1
Henrik Stenson (12-1): Although I believe Spieth has the much higher chance to win this week, you’re not getting much value at 6.5-1. Stenson provides nearly double that and he certainly has the game to come out on top here. His course history here is phenomenal. His last five finishes here are 2-54-2-21-3. He has yet to crack the winner’s circle here, but those three top-3’s are definitely impressive. Henrik hasn’t played his best golf as of late, which will probably keep a lot of people off of him. He missed the cut in his last start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational by two shots and had a withdraw two weeks before that. Besides those two hiccups, he does have six consecutive top 10 finishes so his game certainly isn’t lost. Don’t forget, he’s still the number 5 ranked golfer in the world.
Mid Tier Value Picks:
Charles Howell III (50-1): I realize betting on Charles Howell is usually a mistake because he hasn’t won on Tour since 2007, but if there’s any a time that he might be able to do it, this could be it. The Augusta native needs to win this week to play in the Masters so if you’re into narratives that’s definitely one you should consider. His course history is pretty solid as well finishing inside the top 7 in the last two years. His last ten starts here have seen some pretty solid results with just two missed cuts: 7-5-MC-10-19-MC-58-47-44-17. Overall on the season, he’s made 11 straight cuts that includes seven top 15 finishes. He also had a strong showing at the Match Play last week against the world’s best players. He won his group that included Tyrell Hatton and Rafa Cabrera Bello, but lost to eventual runner-up Jon Rahm in the round of 16. He’s playing some of the most consistent/best golf in his career. He just needs to figure out how to put it all together for a win.
Charley Hoffman (50-1): Hoffman is known to play well in Texas and with it being in Houston this week, I figured it wouldn’t be right if I didn’t include him. His course history here is what you would expect. His last ten finishes here have been: 33-11-37-20-MC-24-52-6-31-21. With only one missed cut in that span and five top 25’s, he should see success once again. A big reason I think he plays well here is that this course statistically has proven to be one of the easiest courses on tour when it comes to putting inside 5 and 10 feet. The flatter surface close to the hole has allowed him to not miss those as often and limit his disadvantage on the putting surface. He once again ranks 172nd in SG:Putting and 191st in putting inside 10 feet on the season, which is certainly not good, but he should be making more of those this week which will allow him to score much better down the stretch thanks to his solid tee to green game. He’s playing some bigtime boom or bust golf right now with a second and a fourth place finish mixed around two missed cuts. I like the chances of boom this week.
Long Shot Pick:
Cameron Tringale (100-1): Tringale is now on his eighth full season on tour, but has yet to find the winner’s circle. He does have a runner up finish in each of the last three seasons though so he’s definitely not too far from doing it. He’s another player that has added motivation this week because he hasn’t qualified for the Masters so hopefully that narrative can pan out this week. His course history is pretty impressive as he has yet to miss the cut here in six starts. His finishes are: 57-5-4-16-8-73. Those three top-8 finishes in six starts is pretty darn awesome for a guy with 100-1 odds. His current form is okay making three of four cuts with an 8th place finish a few weeks ago at the Genesis Open. Statistically, he’s another guy that ranks extremely poorly on tour from putting inside of 10 feet that should see a great benefit from this course. If he can hit greens this week and drive it well, he definitely has a chance for another high finish here.
Other favorite bets: Adam Scott (25-1), Tony Finau (35-1), Nick Watney (80-1), Jimmy Walker (60-1), JT Poston (100-1)
Thanks again and good luck this week! Follow me on Twitter!