Hey guys, I’m back for the Valero Texas Open this week. Last week, I nailed my 4th winner of the year with Wesley Bryan taking home the trophy at 60-1 odds. I had several people comment on Twitter that they got on him so I’m certainly glad I can help! Bryan is one of the best young-ish (he’s 27 years old) players on the PGA Tour and definitely someone you’ll want to be on quite frequently. Let’s get to the Valero Texas Open and hope we can hit on another winner!
This week the PGA Tour heads to San Antonio, Texas for the Valero Texas Open. This week’s course was one of the toughest last year on tour so it’s certainly not a pushover despite the weak field (only two of the top 20 in the world are here). It measures 7,400 yards as a par 72 so length is going to be critical this week and much, much more important than last week. In fact, this course couldn’t be more more different than what we saw last week so make sure you keep that in mind.
If you want DraftKings picks and more tournament information, make sure to check out Geoff and Alex’s articles!
Odds for the 2017 Valero Texas Open:*
- Matt Kuchar: 18-1
- Charley Hoffman: 20-1
- Brendan Steele, Brooks Koepka, Ryan Moore: 22-1
- Branden Grace, Jimmy Walker, Kevin Chappell: 25-1
- Adam Hadwin, Billy Horschel: 28-1
- Luke Donald, Ollie Schniederjans, Patrick Reed, Ryan Palmer, Tony Finau: 33-1
- Zach Johnson: 40-1
- Byeonghun An, Keegan Bradley: 45-1
- J.J. Spaun, Luke List: 50-1
- Daniel Summerhays, Jhonattan Vegas, Martin Laird: 55-1
- Anirban Lahiri, Chris Kirk, Graeme McDowell, Harold Varner III, Ian Poulter, Soren Kjeldsen, Sung Kang: 66-1
- Bryson Dechambeau, Jamie Lovemark, Nick Watney, Bud Cauley: 80-1
- Jason Kokrak: 90-1
- Cameron Smith, Danny Lee, JT Poston, Kevin Streelman, Nick Taylor, Sam Saunders, Scott Piercy, Stewart Cink: 100-1
Brendan Steele (22-1): It’s hard not to go with Hoffman in this spot and I’m sure you guys know all the reasons why, but I’m taking Steele as my favorite this week. After digging through the stats, it just feels that Steele is playing better golf right now and has very good course history as well (not as good as Hoffman’s, but still solid). I get how dominant Hoffman has been here and that sure paid off win a similar situation with Luke Donald last week, but there’s something to be said for a guy that has made just 7/14 cuts and ranks poorly in almost every stat. Will I be surprised if he wins though? Absolutely not. Something about this course and Charley Hoffman just seem to mesh.
I’m going with Steele for many reasons. For one, his stats are off the charts, especially when you compare them to Hoffman’s. Steele ranks 20th in SG: Approach, 29th in SG: Around the Green, 13th in SG: T2G, 24th in GIR, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 5th in Total Driving, 6th in Proximity from 175-200 (which will be a key distance this week on a tough track), 1st in Scrambling and 11th in Par 4 scoring. Basically he’s having the best season of his career from all parts of the golf course no matter where you look. His course history is equally impressive with four top-15 finishes in six starts, including his first career victory in 2011. He’s finished 13th and 8th the last two seasons. Steele comes in this week playing extremely well, making all 12 cuts so far on the season with six top-25 finishes. He’s my pick for the winner this week in a wide open field.
Mid Tier Value Picks
Tony Finau (33-1): Finau is having another solid season on the PGA Tour. The 27 year old has one career victory and I think he has a chance to pick up his second this week. Finau comes in this week playing some great golf, making 10 of 13 cuts including his last three. He’s only played here once before when he finished 68th in 2015. He’s your prototypical bomber ranking 6th in SG: Off the Tee, 12th in T2G, 13th in Driving Distance, 7th in GIR, 12th in Proximity from 175-200 yards and 26th in bogey avoidance. All of these stats are going to be crucial this week and he excels in every one. There is a lot to worry about with the putter, especially on bermuda greens where he tends to struggle, but if he can just be average this week he has a chance to get the win.
Luke List (50-1): After a missed cut last week, List is coming to a place where his strengths should match up with how this course plays. I’m not putting too much weight into last week’s missed cut due to the fact it was strictly an accuracy course and we know this isn’t his strength. It’s also promising that he only missed the cut by one shot so he wasn’t far off. He’s played here twice before and was decently successful with a 29th place finish last year and 46th in 2013. His current form is impressive as well for a guy at 50-1 odds. His last five finishes are: MC-3-37-17-27. That third place finish was at the Shell Houston Open so he should be decently comfy in Texas. List ranks well in many stats that you want here including 17th in SG: Off the Tee, 37th in SG: Approach, 18th in SG: T2G, 3rd in Driving Distance, 36th in GIR, 10th in Birdie or Better, 7th in Par 3 scoring, 3rd in par 5 scoring and 19th in bogey avoidance. If he can avoid the big numbers and stay in the fairway he should be able to remain near the top of the leaderboard.
Long Shot Pick
JT Poston (100-1): Poston is a solid young player that is having a really impressive rookie season on tour. He’s made 11/14 cuts on the year (including six straight) and comes in with fantastic current form with finishes of 55-10-14-27-17. His stats aren’t all that impressive as they are all around average, but he does rank 13th in proximity from 175-200, which should certainly help him plenty this week on this tough course. Last year on the Web.com Tour he had two runner-up finishes and a third place finish so he definitely has a winning mentality that can finish high on leaderboards. He’s definitely worth a look this week as a long shot.
Other favorite bets:
- Kevin Chappell (25-1)
- JJ Spaun (50-1)
- Jhonattan Vegas (55-1)
- Xander Schauffelle (300-1)
Good luck this week and make sure to follow me on Twitter!
*Odds are based on Bovada as of 4/18