Hey guys, I’m back for the Wells Fargo Championship this week. I didn’t have a betting article last week for the Zurich and hopefully you guys were able to get on Cam Smith and Jonas Blixt. But for real, did anyone watch the Monday playoff? Holy shit was that rough. Congrats to Cam Smith getting his first PGA Tour victory and to Jonas Blixt who now has three wins (yeah I was astonished when I saw that as well). So let’s get back to a recap of the last article I wrote. Two weeks ago was the Valero Texas Open and I mentioned Kevin Chappell as one of my other favorite bets at 25-1 and hopefully you guys got on that! I had a few followers on Twitter mention they did so hopefully we can keep the winning going. My other mentions of Brendan Steele (T62), Luke List (cut), JT Poston (T27) and Tony Finau (T3) were a mixed bag with Finau coming pretty darn close to taking the trophy. Counting Chappell, we’ve had five winners so far and if you’ve spread your betting correctly you should easily have a positive ROI on the year. Let’s get to the Wells Fargo Championship and hope we can hit on another winner!
This week the PGA Tour heads to North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. It has always been played at Quail Hollow, but because that course will play host to the PGA Championship later this year, it has been moved to Eagle Point Golf Club. The field isn’t all that strong with only seven players inside the top 30 in OWGR, but the world #1 will make his first appearance since the strange back injury that held him out of the Masters. There are a few other studs like Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott and Paul Casey, but the field really drops off after over those guys. The course is an average length par 72 playing around 7,400 yards. After doing quite a bit of research, it seems like this may play a bit shorter and a lot of the approach shots should be coming from 175 yards and in.
If you want DraftKings picks and more tournament information, make sure to check out Geoff and Alex’s articles!
Odds for the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship:*
- Dustin Johnson: 5-1
- Jon Rahm: 11-1
- Adam Scott: 18-1
- Paul Casey: 20-1
- Kevin Kisner, Phil Mickelson: 22-1
- Bill Haas, Daniel Berger, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Wesley Bryan: 33-1
- JB Holmes, William McGirt: 40-1
- Alexander Noren, Francesco Molinari: 50-1
- Emiliano Grillo: 55-1
- Byeong-Hun An, Graeme McDowell, Hudson Swafford, Lucas Glover, Luke List, Martin Laird, Pat Perez, Shane Lowry: 66-1
- Kevin Tway, Soren Kjeldsen: 70-1
- Brian Harman, Kevin Na, Zach Johnson: 75-1
- Jim Furyk, Rafael Cabrera Bello: 80-1
- Nick Watney: 90-1
- Brian Gay, Bryson Dechambeau, Harold Varner III, Harris English, JT Poston, Patrick Rodgers, Patton Kizzire, Stewart Cink: 100-1
Jon Rahm (11-1): The obvious pick here is Dustin Johnson and he is most likely going to win this week, but at 5-1 it’s hard to want to bet that. That’s why I’m looking at Jon Rahm at 11-1, which provides enough value for a guy that is lights out right now. If DJ has any sort of rust coming off the back injury, Rahm is definitely in line to win. The fact that this is a new course should actually play to his favor since he his fellow competitors won’t have the course history advantage they usually have over him each week. He comes in this week with 11 straight made cuts with five top 10’s in that stretch so the current form is more than there. Rahm is off the charts when looking at the stats. He ranks 3rd in SG: Off the Tee, 9th in SG: Approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 15th in GIR%, 12th in Proximity from 150-175 and 22nd in Scrambling. Basically, the guy is one of the most elite players on the planet right now and he will get his second career victory sooner rather than later. If I’m betting $100 this week and going with Rahm, I’m putting $50 of it on him and spreading the other $50 on five or six guys depending on their odds.
Mid Tier Value Picks
Paul Casey (20-1): I wanted to write up Paul Casey because if it’s not Rahm or DJ who wins, I think Casey is next in line. Casey is one of the best ball strikers in the world and if he can just figure out the putter for four days, he should easily be in the mix. Casey comes in playing extremely well, making 11 of 12 cuts on the year and hasn’t missed the weekend since January. He’s finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five events including a 6th place finish at the Masters in his last event. He comes in statistically where you think he would, ranking high in the ball striking categories and well below average with the putter. He ranks 21st in SG: Approach, 6th in SG: Around the Green, 16th in SG: T2G, 14th in GIR%, 5th in Proximity from 150-175 yards and 8th in Scrambling. The combination of 16th in SG: T2G and 8th in Scrambling is a fantastic indicator that he has the complete game right now and if he can just roll in a few more birdie putts he’ll have a chance come Sunday.
Wesley Bryan (33-1): I think everyone knows by now that Wesley Bryan is the real deal after his victory at the RBC Heritage a few short weeks ago in South Carolina. He’ll now travel to North Carolina to play a course that should fit his game fairly well. He’s made 11 of 15 cuts so far on the PGA Tour season including the victory in his last event. He also has three other top 7 finishes since February so the current form is solid. Bryan is a guy that gets it done after the tee shot. He ranks 17th in SG: Approach and 26th in SG: Around the Green. His proximity stats are what really sets him apart as well as he ranks inside the the 15 in several yardage gaps. He also ranks 13th on Tour in Scrambling for when his approaches are off. He has the game and he has a winner’s mentality.
Long Shot Pick
Harold Varner III (100-1): I love the value we’re getting on Varner this week at 100-1. He had made five consecutive cuts before the Zurich Classic, which I’m not weighing whatsoever this week. Of those five, he had finished inside the top 35 in three of them. Varner is your prototypical bomber ranking 28th in Driving Distance, which should help him here as it sounds like there aren’t a lot of holes that forces the player to take driver out of their hand. He’s always do for a solid first round so if he does go out and lead after 18 try and contain your excitement as he tends to tank on the weekend. He’s near the bottom in putting statistics on the PGA Tour and if can just put it together for four rounds, he finally might get his first win.
Other favorite bets:
- Webb Simpson: 33-1
- Emiliano Grillo: 55-1
- Patrick Rodgers: 100-1
Good luck this week and make sure to follow me on Twitter!
*Odds are based on Bovada as of 5/2