Hey everyone, I’m back again for the WGC-Mexico Championship. Looking back at last week, can someone say winner winner chicken dinner? We hit the winner again last week with Rickie Fowler getting it done at The Honda Classic. The other picks of Charles Howell III (T52), Brendan Steele (T14) and Luke Donald (T27) ended up being decent picks in terms of DraftKings, but all of them had their reasons for not cracking the top 10. But for real, how impressive is Steele’s finish considering the dude took a 9? My other mentions of Horschel (T4), Vegas (T4), Scott (T14) and Dufner (T14) all had pretty impressive weeks as well. Back to back weeks nailing the winner is huge and we’ll look to do it again this week at the star studded WGC. Let’s get to it.
Odds for the WGC-Mexico Championship:
- Dustin Johnson: 7-1
- Jordan Spieth: 8-1
- Rory Mcilroy: 11-1
- Hideki Matsuyama: 12-1
- Henrik Stenson: 14-1
- Rickie Fowler: 18-1
- Adam Scott, Justin Rose: 22-1
- Sergio Garcia: 28-1
- Jon Rahm: 30-1
- Justin Thomas: 33-1
- Brandt Snedeker, Tyrell Hatton: 40-1
- Emiliano Grillo, Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Jimmy Walker, Louis Oosthuizen, Martin Kaymer, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson: 50-1
The WGC-Championship has attracted 49 of the top 50 players in the world (minus Jason Day). It’s being played at Club de Golf Chapultepec, which is the first time any of these guys will ever have played it. This means one of the most important aspects of our research each week, course history, is immediately thrown out the window. The course is a Par 71 that measures 7,300 yards, which sounds long at first, but when you factor in the insane elevation that this course sits at (7500 feet above sea level), it’s going to play extremely short for these guys. Justin Thomas has already posted on Instagram a picture of his drives traveling over 380 yards. So how do we attack this week? That’s the mysterious problem we all have to solve. To get a more in depth look at the course, check our Geoff’s article.
Dustin Johnson (7-1): At just 7-1, you’re not getting a ton of value on DJ this week, but I believe he wins this week so I couldn’t leave him out. A lot of guys are talking about how distance might not play a huge role this week because of the tree lined fairways and short course, which could favor accuracy players. I’m taking the opposite approach. DJ is going to be able to completely overpower this course, teeing off with 5 iron whenever he pleases to keep it in the fairway and when he sees an opportunity there are a couple holes he may be able to drive. We all know he dominates the strokes gained stats, but a couple other important stats to consider this week, DJ ranks 22nd on the PGA Tour in proximity from 125-150 and 1st in GIR % from that range. He’s the world number 1 for a reason and with 3 WGC titles already, I think he gets his fourth. Also, he just found out he’s having another baby boy with Paulina Gretzky, meaning he’s winning at the game of life right now if you want to ride that narrative.
Henrik Stenson (14-1): The Swede makes his first trip to the Americas this season. He’s coming in with awesome current form as noted by his last five tournament finishes: 2nd, 8th, 9th, 8th, and 2nd. He hasn’t hit any less than 75% of his greens in that span and I certainly expect that continue this week as well. We all know how great his 3 wood is and it should be a monstrous weapon this week that should allow him to find the fairway, but continually be within wedge range. Stenson has four top five finishes in WGC events. Maybe he breaks through and gets his first win.
Louis Oosthuizen (50-1): Louis led the field last week in GIR% and finished in 21st place. He hasn’t missed a cut in his last 12 starts and although this is a no-cut event, it still goes to show how well he’s playing right now. He also has a third place finish at the Phoenix Open a few weeks ago. Louis ranks 7th on tour in BoB% from 125-150 yards, 10th in Proximity and 11th in GIR% in that yardage range, and 13th in SG: Around the Green. He’s a wily ole vet that I think can manage his way around the unknown course and get it done. At 50-1 odds, he’s a world class player that could pay some serious dividends if he wins.
Long Shot Value Pick:
Zach Johnson (66-1): I think Zach Johnson sets up well for this course plain and simple. He’s an excellent wedge player that should be able to continually knock it stiff. He’s coming in with decent form with a 27th and 12th place finish in his last two tournaments. He managed that 27th place finish despite only hitting 50% of his greens in regulation, which could be a sign of trouble, but a windy PGA National is a much more difficult course than this one. If he can hit more greens and do what he does with every other club in his bag, he has a chance this week for a high finish. I like the vets this week, given the mystery and difficulty of adjusting for altitude and other distractions that come with new territory.
Other favorite bets on the week: Alexander Noren (80-1) Brendan Steele (66-1) Justin Thomas (33-1) Francesco Molinari (66-1)
Good luck this week and make sure to follow me on Twitter! @Keagan28