Germany vs. Switzerland World Junior Pick – December 30, 2020

We made it back-to-back profitable nights with a 2-1 night and a 1.15-unit profit on Day five of the 2021 World Juniors.

The first win got us rolling as the U.S. took it to the Czechs. Taking the States -3.5 carried some risk after the Czechs shut out Russia by a 2-0 count two nights earlier. The Czechs put forth another suffocating defensive effort in the first and with the score tied 0-0 after one, our pick didn’t look great. That said, once Bobby Brink buried a rebound to open the scoring in the second, we were off and rolling as the States would add two more second-period goals and another four in the third as the 7-0 rout have us a nice winner at +125.

Next up was Canada over the Swiss on the puckline -5.5. Again, it was just 1-0 after one, but the hosts exploded for four in the second and another five in the third while blowing past the spread with a 10-0 thumping of the Swiss.

Lastly, we had Russia -7.5 over Austria. Despite Austria playing their second game in as many nights and goaltender Sebastian Wraneschitz on the bench, the Russians didn’t take it to the Austrians as the U.S. and Sweden did earlier in the tournament. Austria even tucked their first goal of the tournament and while the 7-1 final was indeed another blowout, we fell two goals shy of going 3-3 on the night.

Nonetheless, we’ll take the 2-1 night and 1.15-unit profit and move onto this Germany vs. Switzerland World Junior pick from the Edmonton bubble!

Germany vs. Switzerland Betting Odds

  • Germany (-155)
  • Switzerland (+120)
  • Germany -1.5 (+190)
  • Switzerland +1.5 (-260)
  • Over 6 (+100)
  • Under 6 (-130)

Germany vs. Switzerland World Junior Pick Breakdown

Germany

Germany has been a main storyline in this tournament given the situation with their roster and the fact they had to leave a couple NHL first-round picks home before travelling overseas.

Germany played the first three games of their tournament with just 14 skaters and the first two without their No. 1 goaltender. After a valiant effort in a 5-3 tournament-opening loss to the Finns, the Germans were thumped 16-2 by the host nation Canada.

Nonetheless, they got top netminder Florian Bugl back for their matchup with Slovakia, and despite remaining at just 14 skaters, Germany pulled off the upset at +115 thanks to a 4-on-3 overtime goal in one of, if not the most entertaining game of the tournament to this point while Bugl took home player of the game honors for Germany.

Now, the Germans will get five skaters back and will be at full strength for this tilt with the Swiss, and have the benefit of a day off to get their legs back underneath them.

Forward Tim Stutzle showed why the Ottawa Senators took him with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft as he tallied two of the four German goals against Slovakia while J.J. Peterka was all over the place. The 2020 Buffalo Sabres second-round pick, along with Florian Elias, were simply dominant every time this hit the ice and should be all over a weaker Swiss team again in this one tonight.

Maksymilian Szuber and Simon Gnyp are two of the five German defenseman who logged major minutes so far in this tournament and both were brilliant again two nights ago.

Bugl allowed three goals, however he is a major, major upgrade on Arno Tiefensee and Jonas Gahr and stabilized that position for his team as they fought from behind all night long.

You have to like the fact that five German skaters are fired up and ready to go for their first tournament action. While it could take some shifts for their legs to get going, the injection of some well-rested bodies is a major plus for this German squad entering a crucial game tonight.

Switzerland

A solid start went south in a hurry once the second period kicked off last night against Canada as the flood gates opened in a hurry.

The loss set Switzerland to o-0-0-3 on the tournament and in the basement of Group A. A win in this one could get them into the medal round, although it’s going to be difficult task on a back-to-back night.

While the Swiss have been competitive in past year’s at this tournament, there wasn’t much expected from this roster. It’s a roster devoid of an NHL-drafted prospect, the lone team in the tournament with that unwanted distinction.

The did return two defensemen from last year’s tournament in Bastian Guggenheim and Rocco Pezzullo, but three new goaltenders and a lack of offensive firepower has the Swiss struggling to this point.

OFFENSIVE POWER OUTAGE
The first two games of their tournament weren’t too bad as they dropped a close 1-0 contest to the Slovaks on Christmas Day, and their 4-1 loss to the heavily-favored Finns wasn’t the worst thing in the world, either. Forward Attilio Biasca actually opened the scoring in that one on the power play, but after being shut out again last night, Biasca’s tally is the only goal of the tournament for the Swiss, tying them with Austria as the worst offense in the tournament to this point.

The team’s best player to this point has been goaltender Thibault Fatton, and after Noah Patenaude got the nod in last night’s blowout loss, it will be Fatton looking to backstop his team into the medal round in a calculated move by the Swiss coaching staff.

The 19-year-old Fatton owns a 2.53 GAA and .933 Sv% in two starts against the Slovaks and Finns in this tournament, and any upset here will depend on his ability to stop the elite talent on the German top line.

Germany vs. Switzerland World Junior Pick

Despite Germany not giving the Swiss the same challenge as Finland or Canada on paper, they are a tough matchup for the Swiss in this one.

Switzerland is playing their second game in as many nights, and the Germans are getting five well-rested bodies back into their lineup as they play at full strength for the first time in the tournament.

Fatton has been excellent, but the 18-year-old Bugl owns a 2.07 GAA and .926 Sv% in 13 games with his junior team back home in Germany. He also posted excellent numbers between two leagues in Germany last season, posting at least a .924 Sv% in each stop. A big-time effort for the remainder of this tournament would put him in a decent spot to be drafted in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft.

All that said, to me, this one is all about that Stutzle/Elias/Peterka Germany top line. They were dominant against superior competition versus the Slovaks two nights ago and should run roughshod over an inferior Swiss blueline that could wear down as this game moves along.

Fatton could be up to the challenge, but despite leaving high-end talent back home, this German team has surpassed expectations with authority in this tournament and in this particular matchup, have by far the superior offense and a goaltender in Bugl who has been excellent wherever he’s played over the last two seasons.

I don’t like the value I’m getting on the moneyline at -155, however, so I’ll take Germany to win this one on the puckline -1.5 at +190 as we’ll look to hit a home run on the back of third overall pick Tim Stutzle.

The Bet
GERMANY -1.5
+190
Brenton Kemp / Author

Brenton is a lifelong sports fan who resides in Ontario, Canada. Brenton is a fan of most all sports but specializes in hockey, baseball, football, basketball, and golf. He’s a fierce researcher with a strong appetite to deliver accurate and relevant facts that in turn have led to past success with picks and DFS advice across the board. Brenton’s biggest goal is to deliver readers with the picks and advice that can build their bankroll. He takes great pride in his success and loves nothing more than to share that success for the benefit of everyone involved.

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