Uh oh. There is more bad news for Bob Baffert. On a day that he lost the Santa Anita Derby, Baffert stated that Charlatan will not be running in the Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes. Nadal was already ruled out because of an ankle injury, and now Charlatan is officially out of the Triple Crown picture. That’s a blow for Baffert, who lost with Authentic in the Kentucky Derby yesterday. It was a coin flip between Authentic and Honor A.P. with Honor A. P. emerging victorious.
In what looked like a juggernaut stable for Baffert, the fortress is showing cracks in the foundation. Don’t feel too bad for Baffert, though. He is going to have a stacked stable of 3-year-old horses next year, and Cezanne might be able to steal the Kentucky Derby in September. Cezanne, who was a $3.65-million purchase, has looked electric in workouts and won as a first-time starter on Saturday.
We’ll get back to Baffert and his trainees in the future. We’re at the home of the Kentucky Derby on Sunday searching for winners. Churchill Downs has ten races on the racecard Sunday. There aren’t any notable races to speak of, but Churchill Downs should have a decent day of racing. It’s supposed to be a perfect day weather wise without any chance of precipitation. Head below for our free Churchill Downs Pick 4 and Pick 5 selections for June 7, 2020.
Pick 5: Race 1-5
Pick 4: Race 2-5
Post Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Distance: 6 ½ Furlongs
We have what should be a good race to get the day started at Churchill Downs on Sunday. 6 ½ furlongs for a $17,000 purse will get us underway. Backseat Promises, Have No Fear, and Reachreachreach should be on most shortlists. Backseat Promises has been inconsistent and may or may not want to run today. A winner in 4 of 24 races, Backseat Promises, has finished 5th, 2nd, 5th, 4th in her previous four outings. She had a win on February 16 by a half length and has been winless in four straight. This should be an easier assignment than her latest outing on May 6 at Will Rogers Downs.
Have No Fear drops a class after finding no success on February 16 at Fair Grounds. She finishes 7th in that race, but has been successful in lower classes. Have No Fear finished 1st, 1st, 2nd before trying at a more difficult chore. In her two wins, Have No Fear won by 7 ¼ lengths in a blowout on December 8, and then a win on February 7 by 1 ¼ lengths over favorite Diamond Crazy. She failed to get the hat-trick in her next race, but still ran well to place behind Diamond Crazy by a half length in a revenge race for Diamond Crazy.
This isn’t the first time I’ve handicapped Reachreachreach. She was a winner for me on March 16, though success hasn’t followed her around since then. Reachreachreach has finished 3rd and 5th in her previous two outings. She was 5th in her most recent performance on April 22 as a favorite at Will Rogers Downs. Overall, Reachreachreach is a winning horse in 4 out of 18 races in her career. Recent workouts have been okay, with times of 50.91, 52.20, and 49.40 seconds at 4 furlongs. Have No Fear was much faster in her May workouts. She completed 4 furlongs at 47 and 47.60 seconds. I like Have No Fear from the No. 1 post position in this one.
Post Time: 1:34 p.m. EST
Distance:1 1/16 Miles
Wide-open racing in Race 2 on Sunday afternoon at Churchill Downs. This race is going to be there for the taking. A purse of $25,000 is offered in Race 2. Long On Luck, Red Again, and Whole Lotta Luck are on my shortlist for this race. Long On Luck enters Sunday after being denied a hat-trick at Fair Grounds. He was on a massive romp to finish in the top-2 in six straight races before getting rejected in the Mineshaft Handicap (Gr. 3) on February 16. His nice run included three wins and three 2nd place performances. Long On Luck has recorded 5 wins in 16 races for an effective win percentage.
Red Again has been far less inconsistent, but has looked decent in the morning. He has finished 1st, 6th, 2nd, 7th, DNF in his previous five races. Red Again completed the hat-trick last spring from March 30 to May 2, and had wins in 5 of 6 races before trying harder races out. It didn’t go so well for Red Again, though his workouts have been solid. He completed 4 furlongs at 49.60 and 49.20 seconds on May 10 and May 19.
Whole Lotta Luck has been another inconsistent performer, but gets a class drop for Sunday. He’s finished 9th, 7th, 3rd, 9th in his previous four outings. His most recent win was seven races ago on October 11, 2019 at Keeneland. He has 6 wins in 34 races in his career. The drop in class should help make Whole Lotta Luck look better than she has been in recent memory, though there’s likely going to be better value at post time. Long On Luck, fresh off a graded event run, is my selection in what should be an entertaining affair in Race 2.
Post Time: 2:06 p.m. EST
The top prize out of a $39,000 purse will go to the horse that runs the fastest at 7 furlongs. Lionite and Street to Indy will likely have bold bids in the event. Courting a Kiss might carry some value by post time as well. The Canadian was running well to finish in the top-3 in six straight outings, and in the top-2 in five out of those races before trying something a little more difficult. It didn’t work out, as Courting a Kiss finished 5th and 4th on March 15 and April 23. This race will be more to his liking. Beating Street to Indy and Lionite will likely be the biggest challenge on Sunday.
Lionite seeks the hat-trick after winning on April 30 and May 22. He won at Oaklawn Park in April by a length, and then followed it up to win by 2 ¾ lengths over Spokane Eagle at Churchill Downs. He has won 4 of 19 races in his career, with his biggest win in the Prairie Mile Stakes on April 14, 2018. That’s the only stakes win he has after running in six of them. He hasn’t been stakes racing since struggling in the Oklahoma Derby on September 30, 2018.
Street to Indy has 5 wins in 31 outings, with his most recent trip to the winner’s circle on April 25 at Oaklawn Park. That was his first win since February 8. In the April win, Street to Indy beat Shortlist by 3 ¼ lengths. He was unable to follow that up with a productive run on May 25 in his debut at Churchill Downs. Street to Indy finished 5th, well behind Shortlist who was 2nd in that effort. Yet another race that should be entertaining at Churchill Downs on Sunday, and another race that has some value. The way I see it, Courting a Kiss should have more respect than +500 underdog on the morning-line.
Post Time: 2:38 p.m. EST
Race 4 offers a $35,000 purse for a mile of racing at Churchill Downs on Sunday afternoon. Quiet Company, Garden Affair, and Andiama are all expecting to win the event. Garden Affair will be running out of the gate looking for the first win of her career. She has been inconsistent throughout her 13-race career. Garden Affair has been up front to place in 3 of 13 races, and has shown in 2 of 13, so there have been some instances where she’s been good. In her previous four races, Garden Affair has finished 2nd, 8th, 3rd, 5th, so a bit all over the place.
Andiama is less experienced than Garden Affair with just four races to speak of. She showed plenty of promise after dropping a class, though, and will be running in a similar event today. Andiama finished 7th, 6th, 4th, and 2nd in her most recent outing on February 28. Andiama lost that event by 4 ½ lengths to lose as the horse with the second lowest odds at post time. Special Liaison notched the win as a sizable underdog on that day.
Quiet Company has raced in eight career raes with five performances in the top-3. She came just a bit short on May 8 to lose by a half length against Noble Alma as a pretty big underdog. That was after finishing 6th, 4th, 5th, and running well in her latest race against tough competition.
To open her career, Quiet Company finished 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd. After the solid effort on May 8, Quiet Company has to be one to consider here. She has been in good form with a 4-furlong workout of 48.40 seconds and 1:01.20 at 5 furlongs. Andiama just completed 5 furlongs at 1:02.40 and 4 furlongs at 50.60, 50.60, and 49 seconds. Garden Affair and Quiet Company both look good here, with a slight lean towards Quiet Company.
Post Time: 3:10 p.m. EST
Race 5 will close out the day for us at Churchill Downs on Sunday. A purse of $34,000 is on offer to wrap up our Pick 4 and Pick 5 ticket. Take Charge d’Oro, Ruler of the Nile, and Celerity will be on my shortlist going into Race 5. Take Charge d’Oro is coming off a win, which I was able to hit at Oaklawn Park on May 2.
He won by a neck as a fairly big underdog at post time. Take Charge d’Oro has won 4 of 16 races in his career. He has been in the top-3 in 4 of 16 races. I’m not enthused by his most recent workout on June 2, though, with a time of 51.80 seconds at 4 furlongs.
Celerity is dropping a class for Sunday after getting stuck in December and March at Turfway Park. There wasn’t any success to be found, as Celerity finished 11th and 9th against tough competition. Leading up to those two races, Celerity finished 1st, 1st, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd. That’s the level he should be competing against, and the race today is more closely aligned with those classes. He shouldn’t be ignored racing against this competition.
Ruler of the Nile has a nice win percentage of 47% with 10 wins in 21 entries. He is coming off a win on May 21 by 1 ½ lengths over I’m Corfu. Ruler of the Nile has notched four wins since November 15, 2019. He captured back-to-back wins to start 2020 at Parx and Oaklawn on January 4 and February 1. Since then, Ruler of the Nile has finished 4th, 5th, 3rd, 1st. His most recent efforts on April 17 and May 21 would be sufficient for a win on Sunday.