There is only one 170-point stakes race left on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Following the Arkansas Derby next Saturday, the field is going to be clear for the 147th Kentucky Derby. It’s the next and final race with 100 points going to the winning team. This is also the final day for prep races. The Lexington Stakes will also take place on Saturday, though only 36 points are available for four horses.
1st will collect 20 points, while 4th earns 2 points. In other words, it’s imperative to win that race for a chance to go to the Derby on May 1. I don’t believe you’re going to find the winner of the Kentucky Derby at Keeneland, but could be at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. Concert Tour will be joined by Caddo River at Oaklawn Park in what should be an exciting race.
Essential Quality did his part on Saturday in his prep race, as he edged away at the wire for 100 points in the Blue Grass Stakes. BetOnline has five racecourses available for wagering on Monday, with four thoroughbred cards and a quarter horse card at Louisiana Downs. There might be two or three harness tracks open for racing tonight as well. We will get started at Delta Downs in Louisiana on Monday afternoon. Delta Downs has ten races with $255,000 in prize money available today. Head below for our free Delta Downs picks for April 5, 2021.
Post Time: 2:16 p.m. CST
In our first selection at Delta Downs, we have a $19,000 event covering 5 furlongs on the dirt. Lucky Flash and New Orleans Spice should be involved in the stretch in this event. Lucky Flash is 3 for 11 in her career, with five top-5 performances.
She has been up and down recently, going 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 1st, 4th in her last six outings. Lucky Flash went to the winner’s circle two races ago with a win over Maddie’s Music by 3 ¾ lengths in a $11,500 event. That was a nice effort to end a three-race winless streak. She went 2nd, 4th, 6th before getting home again.
Lucky Flash returned on March 3 to regress to 4th in a $20,500 performance. It was expected moving up in class, and Lucky Flash is remaining around the same class for Monday afternoon. Lucky Flash completed two workouts with times of 52 seconds at 38.40 seconds at 3 furlongs.
New Orleans Spice is a three-time winner through 37 entries. She has finished 2nd, 7th, 2nd, 4th in her last four entries, placing 2nd two races back on February 8. New Orleans Spice placed 2nd behind Sidasta by 3 ¼ lengths in a $13,000 event, and then followed up in 4th on March 24 in a $30,000 race. Encouraging performance from New Orleans Spice there. A repeat performance should be sufficient for a win.
Post Time: 2:43 p.m. CST
Race 5 is a $24,000 event covering a mile on the dirt. Ten horses are slated to participate in this race. Exton and Greeley’s Dealer likely run well in this spot. Exton is 7 for 30 in his career, with a recent win on January 18. He’s gone 1st, 1st, 5th, 1st, 7th in his previous five attempts.
Three wins in five races going into Monday isn’t a bad look. In his most recent win, Exton beat Lucky Lucky Inferno by a half length in a $18,000 event. Exton returned on March 15 to finish 7th in a $24,000 event. He couldn’t keep up in that $24,000 race, but hopefully the experience helped going into this afternoon.
Greeley’s Dealer has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st in his previous three events. Overall in his career, Greeley’s Dealer is 12 for 42 since debuting in 2016. Greeley’s Dealer won the $50,000 LA Bred Premier Gentleman Starter Stakes on February 10. He beat Outofthisgalaxy by 1 ½ lengths in that performance.
Greeley’s Dealer placed 2nd behind Meditate by a half length on February 22 in a $20,000 event. He was a heavy favorite in that race and didn’t perform up to expectations. However, Greeley’s Dealer came back on March 24 to beat Johnnysjourney by 4 lengths in a $30,000 assignment. That was a nice response. That would be more than enough for a win today.
Post Time: 4:35 p.m. CST
Race 9 is a $30,000 event covering 5 furlongs on the dirt. Scarlettsblackjack and I Want a Picture should be held in high regard going into this race. Scarlettsblackjack is looking to get back in form after finishing 6th, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 5th in his previous six appearances.
He most recently finished dead last in a $31,000 event on February 11, and then responded in 5th on March 13 at Fair Grounds in a $62,000 event. That was better considering the jump in class, but Scarlettsblackjack needs to show better form before I’m backing him to win.
Solid value horse on the inside rail, but the horse on the opposite side presents good value. I Want a Picture should give a good go of it in Race 9. He’s 9 for 26 and in fine form as of late. I Want a Picture has finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd in his previous three outings. He was a winner on December 20 over Halfmoon Reef by 1 ¼ lengths for a $20,000 purse.
Since that win, I Want a Picture placed 2nd behind Big Em C by a nose for a $24,000 purse, and then placed 2nd behind Wild Bert by 2 ¼ lengths in a $31,000 event. At 4/1 odds, I have more confidence in I Want a Picture winning than the morning-line indicates. He’s likely going to be close and the value is right.