The official weather forecast is in from the Kentucky Derby, and we are looking at a wet sloppy track for today’s 136th Kentucky Derby race. Storms have hit Louisville, Kentucky this morning, with more then an inch falling at the Churchill Downs racetrack. The rain is expected to become more scattered by the afternoon, including light showers through the early evening. Today will mark the 36th time that the Kentucky Derby will be raced on a wet track – post time is set for 6:24 PM EST.
The poor conditions for the race will make things very interesting, as longshot horses now have a better chance at winning the Derby race, and we may even see some horses being scratched before post time. The Kentucky Derby betting odds will be adjusted accordingly, as more action will probably come down on the longshot horses than if there were good conditions on the track.
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What makes things even more interesting is that a lot of the horses in this 20 horse field do not have experience with a muddy track. Many of the horses are used to synthetic surfaces, and no one will know how they will fair on these muddy and wet conditions until later today when the race is complete.
Below are some notes about some of the 2010 Kentucky Derby contenders and their experience in the mud.
Noble’s Promise – Best racing on Synthetic surfaces, may struggle.
Super Saver – Maybe the best mudder of all of the Derby contenders.
Line of David – Possible for this longshot to take an early lead, and may be hard to catch in sloppy conditions.
American Lion – In his only dirt start he won the Illinois Derby, but may struggle with the 1 1/4 mile distance.
Dean’s Kitten – Placed 5th in his only start on a dirt track.
Make Music For Me – Never has run on dirt.
Paddy O’Prado – Finished 7th in slop at Churchill Downs.
Jackson Bend – May be worth a look with a pair of second place finishes behind Eskendereya.
Mission Impazible – Likes the mud.
Awesome Act – Had a great workout in the mud on Tuesday.
Backtalk – Two wins on sloppy tracks, but struggles beyond a mile.
Sidney’s Candy – Solid workout in the mud, but is a synthetic racer.
With the sloppy conditions anything can happen in this years 2010 Kentucky Derby. It is going to be a hard race to predict but I like Lookin at Lucky, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible. I am also still a fan of Sidney’s Candy, who I will probably throw in the mix with my exotic bets.
Do your own research and go with your gut instinct, anything can happen betting the 2010 Kentucky Derby.