The Arkansas Derby is in the books and an upset was the talk of Oaklawn Park. Super Stock flew past Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour in the final stretch to earn a ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Is it time to write off Concert Tour? Authentic was not great leading up to the Kentucky Derby last year and showed up to Churchill Downs and won. Everyone ignored Authentic for Tiz the Law and Baffert’s runner pulled away in the stretch.
Note that Concert Tour had already qualified for the Kentucky Derby before the Arkansas Derby. He didn’t need a win or top-3 finish to get an invite. It will come down to whether Baffert is confident in pointing him to Churchill Downs following that run. Baffert had injuries to Charlatan and Nadal last year, so his hand was forced in starting Authentic. It clearly worked out well for him.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby is now complete. There aren’t any prep races left on the schedule. Oaklawn Park has some more big-time racing next weekend, though, with two $1,000,000 races, the Apple Blossom Handicap Handicap (Gr. 1) and Oaklawn Handicap (Gr. 2). There is one $100,000 stakes race on Sunday at Aqueduct Racetrack, but that’s all for stakes racing. We are starting the day on the west coast at Santa Anita Park. Santa Anita Park has nine races worth a total of $342,000 in prize money. Head below for our free Santa Anita Park picks for April 11, 2021.
Post Time: 2:13 p.m. PST
Race 3 is our first stop at Santa Anita Park on Sunday afternoon. This is a $51,000 event covering 6 furlongs on the dirt. I am looking at Sir Flatter and Barraza to get the win here. Doncic isn’t without a chance, but would have liked to see more from the rookie in his workouts before making his debut today. Sir Flatter is making the second race of his career this afternoon at Santa Anita.
He didn’t get off to a clean start as a first-time runner on December 26. Sir Flatter finished 5th for a $61,000 purse. That was disappointing, but he did save some ground late to finish 11 lengths ahead of the 6th place horse. Sir Flatter was purchased for $175,000 in 2019, and then sold for $95,000 a year later. It seems that selling him before his debut was the right move, but it’s only one race. He has the talent to respond.
Barraza has finished 4th, 4th, 2nd in the first three races of his career. After 4th in a back-to-back $57,000 and $61,000 event. Barraza made strides forward in a $61,000 event on March 13. He placed 2nd behind Triple Tap by 4 ¼ lengths. Barraza finished 1 ½ lengths ahead of Sir Flatter on December 26. Barraza should have the edge in Race 3.
Post Time: 2:45 p.m. PST
Race 4 is a 7-furlong event for a $31,000 purse on the dirt. This is a race that likely comes down to Flat Out Joy and Bristol Bayou. Flat Out Joy has a win in nine races, which came back on October 10. He beat Wicks and Chippies by 1 length for a $28,000 purse. Flat Out Joy has gone winless in four races since then.
She looked good in her most recent attempts on January 2 and March 12. The mare placed 2nd behind Claro Que Si by 3 ½ lengths in a $36,000 event. To follow up in her next performance, Flat Out Joy showed 3rd in a $36,000 event. Down in class to a $31,000 assignment, expect Flat Out Joy to run close in this event. Bristol Bayou should be a formidable opponent for Flat Out Joy and the rest.
Bristol Bayou is coming off the first win of her career on March 28. She defeated La V. by 7 ¼ lengths in a blowout for a $22,000 purse. That was consistent with what Bristol Bayou has been doing in workouts. She was timed at 48 seconds at 4 furlongs in back-to-back workouts in March. If Bristol Bayou is interested in running then a win shouldn’t be out of the picture.
Post Time: 5:25 p.m. PST
6 furlongs on the dirt for a $35,000 purse will close out the day at Santa Anita on Sunday afternoon. Eight horses are expected to run, with V Bucks and My Tigress watched closely. V Bucks is making his debut on Sunday. She’s been working out hard. The filly has had seven workouts since February 10.
In his best outings, V Bucks was clocked at 49.20 seconds at 4 furlongs on March 9, and 1:00.40 at 5 furlongs on March 23. In his most recent workout, he was timed at 1:14.60 on April 2 at 6 furlongs. I think he’s worth some consideration at 4/1 on the morning-line. My Tigress will pressure V Bucks from the start out of the gate.
My Tigress has appeared in two races and shown up well in both. As a rookie on December 12, she placed 2nd behind Capital Heat by 1 ½ lengths in a $32,000 assignment, and then followed up to show 3rd on March 5 in a $35,000 event. He looked quite good in a workout recently on April 5 with a time of 48.60 seconds at 4 furlongs. He also completed 5 furlongs with a time of 1:00.60 on February 20. A winning run looks likely against this beatable field on Sunday.