Super Saver Preakness Odds, Picks and Prediction

Super Saver entered the Kentucky Derby as a 9-1 favorite.  Starting from the number 4 post, jockey Calvin Borel did what he did with 50-1 Derby longshot winner last year, hugging the rail, where he made his way up to the front of the pack on a sloppy track on their way to a Kentucky Derby victory.

Today Super Saver is back at it with the second race of the Triple Crown in the 135th Preakness Stakes.  The Preakness purse is $1 Million, where $600,000 of that purse will be awarded to the winner. The derby winner drew post 8 in the 12 horse field and is entering the Preakness Stakes as a 5-2 favorite.  Jockey Calvin Borel is confident in his horses ability to win the Triple Crown this year – something that hasn’t been done since 1978.

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There is no doubt that Calvin Borel is the hottest jockey racing the Preakness today.  Borel won his third Kentucky Derby in the past four years two weekends ago, and he has also won three of the past four Triple Crown races – which includes last years Preakness aboard Rachel Alexandra.  Trainer Bob Baffert gives a lot of praise to Borel, saying “He takes control of the race, and you have to give him a lot of credit.  He’s a great rider.”  Super Saver’s trainer Todd Pletcher also has a lot of confidence in Calvin (who gave him his first Derby win after 24 attempts), saying “Calvin Borel is a great rider anywhere he goes, but at Churchill Down’s he’s even five lengths better.”

One of the very interesting trends is that the Preakness favorite has won 7 of the last 9 races.  In the other two races the favorite placed 2nd and one horse did not finish the race.  Throughout the history of the Preakness race the favorite has won more than half of the time.  Only ten times in the 135 history of the Preakness race has a horse with more than 11-1 odds or higher won the race.

Some bettors may be wondering if the post position matters much in the Preakness race.  Generally there have been no real trends with the post position at the Preakness that would make you want to bet on or against Super Saver, who is in post 8.  The past three Preakness winners have been from all over place, starting from the outside post, the seven gate and the fourth postposition.

My Super Saver Prediction – Although I think there is no doubt that Calvin Borel is the best jockey in the sport right now, I don’t have Super Saver winning the Preakness this afternoon.  Today we will have a fast rack with the beautiful weather expected, and with the quality of horses racing today I think it will be tough to bet on Super Saver at the 5/2 odds given.  Look for Super Saver to place in the money, so include him in your exotic bets, but I don’t see him winning his second Triple Crown race of the year.

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