There are nine racecourses to get to on Wednesday at BetOnline. Florida is back in the mix, with Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park both running today. There is no stakes racing until the weekend, which includes three $400,000 races, two of which are at Santa Anita Park and one at Tampa Bay Downs. There are also three events with 50 points going to the winner to put towards the Kentucky Derby. The day to circle on the calendar is March 27. You can expect three events on the schedule with 100 points going to the winner. A total of eight 100-point races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby before May. 2nd place nets 40 points, while 3rd is good for 20 points, so even without a win, running close helps plenty.
Tampa Bay Downs in Florida is our first stop on Wednesday. The Oldsmar based track has nine events for a total of $165,950 in prize money. We are also going to have another card covered on Wednesday, so check out the horse racing page for more selections. Head below for our free Tampa Bay Downs picks for March 3, 2021.
Post Time: 12:15 p.m. EST
Race 1 is a $13,450 event running for 7 furlongs on the dirt. Erin Go Braugh and On Duty are highlighted on my shortlist to win the first race of the afternoon at Tampa Bay Downs. Erin Go Braugh is winless in 31 races in his career, but might finally score on Wednesday if everything aligns correctly.
He is coming off a productive outing on February 20 to show 3rd in a $13,450 assignment. After struggling further up in class, the drop to a $13,450 event did him well. Erin Go Braugh had finished 10th, 9th, 6th, 10th before showing 3rd in that event. He draws a pretty favorable post position and should be considered at these odds despite the lack of a win in his career.
The safer option is likely on On Duty, who is looking like a progressive gelding. The $140,000 On Duty hopes to get back to bigger racing later in his career, but will settle for this event down in class on Wednesday. On Duty finished in the top-3 for the first time in his seven-race career on February 14.
The main difference in results for On Duty was the drop in distance. Prior to placing 2nd, On Duty finished 4th at a mile and 70 yards, weakening late in the stretch after leading to the ¾ pole and 2nd into the stretch. He wisely stays put in a lower distance at 7 furlongs on Wednesday. That should benefit him nicely against this beatable field.
Post Time: 1:16 p.m. EST
Distance:1 Mile 40 Yards
Race 3 is a $15,600 event covering a mile and 40 yards on the dirt. Abuelo Nuno and El Afortunado seem like the most attractive horses to strike the winner’s circle in this event. Abuelo Nuno has finished 7th, 2nd, 2nd in his career, placing 2nd in back-to-back events on January 24 and February 7.
After finishing 7th at Gulfstream Park, Abuelo Nuno transferred to Tampa Bay Downs and immediately saw better results. In his first outing at Tampa Bay, he placed 2nd behind V. I. P. Who by 2 lengths, and then a 4 ½ length loss. This is going to be a bit tougher than those two events, which were under the $15,000 level.
El Afortunado has been a consistent runner and has been in the mix often recently. After opening 4th, 3rd, 5th in his first three races, El Afortunado has gone 3rd, 3rd, 3rd in his last three. In his most recent trip, he showed 3rd in a $23,000 event. I wouldn’t say it was the best run considering he was the favorite.
That said, El Afortunado is falling all the way down to a $15,600 race on Wednesday. This is going to be the easiest race of his career. It’s win or nothing for AL Afortunado. Anything less than a trip to the winner’s circle would be disappointing. I’m with El Afortunado to live up to expectations on Wednesday.
Post Time: 3:17 p.m. EST
In our final pick at Tampa Bay Downs, eight horses will run a mile on the turf for a $24,000 purse. Ball Lightning and Successful Legacy should be tough to compete with in Race 7. Ball Lightning has been showing nice improvement in her career, going 5th, 3rd, to 1st in her most recent appearance on October 23 at Gulfstream Park West. Prior to that win, Ball Lightning showed 3rd in a $39,500 assignment.
That was a nice attempt in a fairly tough race. She came back on October 23 to get to the winner’s circle, with a 1 length win in a $29,000 event. In nice form at the moment, Ball Lightning should be able to run well against this field. Successful Legacy is the one runner that should give Ball Lightning problems. Successful Legacy is a two-time winner in four races. After finishing 5th as a rookie, she has gone 1st, 2nd, 1st.
In her most recent outing, Successful Legacy defeated Beautiful Tiz by 3 ¾ lengths after a steady gain for a $19,950 purse. That was an impressive race. Prior to that showing, Successful Legacy placed 2nd behind Striking Chrome by 1 ½ lengths in a $21,250 event. This should be a close on between Successful Legacy and Ball Lightning. In that case, I will side with the horse that is likely going to fetch better value at post time in Ball Lightning.