Thistledown Selections for July 27, 2020 – Horse Racing Picks

Thistledown Selections for July 27, 2020 – Horse Racing Picks

There aren’t any premier races on Monday, but we have action packed cards across North American today. BetOnline is offering 15 racetracks on Monday, including Presque Isle Downs which is debuting its summer meet. This meet was originally scheduled to begin in May, though it was pushed back to now. You can get 7% cash back on horse racing losses at BetOnline by selecting the button below and signing up for an account.

Churchill Downs owns Presque Isle Downs, so they get to add Presque Isle to their portfolio. Arlington Park is also owned by Churchill Downs and racing at the moment. The biggest race of the year is right around the corner on the first weekend of September on Labor Day Weekend. Churchill Downs will host the running of the 146th Kentucky Derby.

Churchill Downs is planning on allowing fans to enter the facility for the Kentucky Derby in some capacity. This is what they’re planning on doing. Key word, planning. Everything changes day-to-day in 2020 and it’s only July right now. A lot could be different by September. All I’m concerned with on Monday is finding some winning horses at Thistledown in Cleveland, Ohio. Thistledown has eight races scheduled for the card on Monday. Head below for our free Thistledown picks for July 27, 2020.

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Race 3

(1) Black Butte (1A) Grace Appeal
+600 (6/1)
(2) Mi Luna
+1000 (10/1)
(3) Cool Iris
+300 (3/1)
(4) Theorem
+800 (8/1)
(5) Almighty Storm
+350 (7/2)
(6) Counting Time
+1500 (15/1)
(7) Southern Ruffles
+1200 (12/1)
(8) Flat Out Super
+250 (5/2)

Post Time: 1:50 p.m. EST
Distance: 5 ½ Furlongs
Purse: $9,300

We will open up at Thistledown in Race 3. This is a 5 ½ furlong race on the dirt for a modest purse of $9,300. It should be a race between Flat Out Super and Almighty Storm. Almighty Storm is likely going to run a strong race in this one. Expect Almighty Storm to give Flat Out River all that he can handle. She is 13 for 76 and recently was dropped in class for her July 15 outing. It’s been a tough stretch for Almighty Storm, but this should be an easier assignment. Almighty Storm has finished 9th, 5th, 8th, 2nd, 5th, 6th in her previous six events.

Almighty Storm is coming off 5th and 6th place performances on July 1 and July 15. She finished 5th in a $24,300 event, and then followed up for 6th in a $9,300 event. 6th doesn’t sound great at all, but Almighty Storm was running well in that race and was 1st at the ⅜ pole. However, Almighty Storm faltered and got stuck in traffic with nowhere to go. I’m expecting that Almighty Storm is going to be more competitive on Monday. It was a tough luck race for Almighty Storm on July 15. Flat Out Super should be a tough out for Almighty Storm and the other runners in Race 3.

Flat Out Super is 6 for 29 in her career and in good form in recent runs. She has won 3 of her previous 5 outings, including back-to-back wins on February 3 and February 22 at Mahoning Valley. In her previous five races, Flat Out Super has finished 1st, 6th, 1st, 1st, 3rd. In the back-to-back wins, Flat Our Super won a $10,100 event by 2 ¾ lengths, and then followed up for a 3 ¼ length win over Classic Arch on February 22 for $10,300.

In his return to Thistledown on June 11, Flat Out Super went up in class to a $15,000 race and finished 3rd. It wasn’t a bad performance, but a bit too difficult for her legs. She is back down in her wheelhouse for this event on Monday. Flat Our Super looked sharp on July 8 with a morning workout of 49 seconds over 4 furlongs. This should be a winnable race for her on Monday afternoon at Thistledown.

The Bet
(8) FLAT OUT SUPER

Race 5

(1) Northern Journey (1A) Catabout
+300 (3/1)
(2) So Go My Luceille
+800 (8/1)
(3) Enduring Love
+1000 (10/1)
(4) Best of You
+450 (9/2)
(5) True Light
+350 (7/2)
(6) Grazia Who
+600 (6/1)
(7) Lexy Anna
+600 (6/1)
(8) Mobil Song
+1200 (12/1)

Post Time: 2:50 p.m. EST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse:$29,300

Race 5 is the feature event of the day at Thistledown for a $29,300 purse. Northern Journey and Ture Light are serious contenders for the top prize of the day in Cleveland. Northern Journey is being coupled with Catabout, but I don’t foresee Catabout having much of an impact. True Light is 1 for 4 in her career, with a win on June 17 two races ago, and then a sloppy performance to finish 7th in her most recent outing.

In all, True Light has finished 4th, 2nd, 1st, 7th in her career, so it has been a little bit of everything. In her win on June 17, True Light beat Nan’s Rose by 9 ¾ lengths in a blowout for a $27,500 purse. She went stakes racing after that for a $75,000 purse. That race was well out of reach for True Light. She finished 7th after running out of steam in the stretch. That race was at 1 1/16 miles, so not only is the competition going to be easier on Monday, but she will see a shorter distance as well.

True Light was competitive in the earlier portions of the race before she ran out of gas. 6 furlongs should be much easier on True Light. She will be under pressure from Northern Journey has been running consistently well in her most recent outings. Northern Journey was 2nd, 1st, 2nd in her previous three performances. She won on June 25 over Abigail Lee by 5 lengths. That was a textbook win for Northern Journey. Overall, she is 1 for 6 races and in the top-2 in 4 of 6 events.

In her latest race, Northern Journey placed 2nd on July 13 behind Diva Power by 4 lengths. That was a slightly tougher race than what she’s going to experience today. She should certainly be close again on Monday. With 3/1 on the morning-line, I think we will get good value on a horse that has a better chance of winning than those odds indicate.

The Bet
(1) NORTHERN JOURNEY (1A) CATABOUT

Race 7

(1) Awesome Gent
+350 (7/2)
(2) More Than Good
+600 (6/1)
(3) Manga Man
+800 (8/1)
(4) Grecian Prince
+600 (6/1)
(5) Woodland Walk
+300 (3/1)
(6) Over Icce
+1000 (10/1)
(7) American Pastime
+250 (5/2)

Post Time: 3:50 p.m. EST
Distance:6 Furlongs
Purse: $23,000

In our final selection at Thistledown, we handicap a 6-furlong dirt race for a $23,000 purse in Race 7. This race likely comes down to American Pastime and Woodland Walk. Both boast solid claims going into Monday. American Pastime is 3 for 12 in his career with plenty of stakes experience.

He has participated in five stakes events, including two Grade 1 races. American Pastime has yet to win a stakes race, but he is used to competing against tough competition. In his previous five races, American Pastime has finished 10th, 5th, 2nd, 9th, 4th. 10th was in the $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes (Gr. 1) on July 28, 2018.

American Pastime went on a layoff after racing in the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes (Gr. 2) on October 4, 2019. That wasn’t a great effort for 9th, but it was another big $250,000 race, so American Pastime was shooting for stars. Upon his return, American Pastime finished 4th in the $76,500 Oceanport Centennial Stakes (Black Type) on July 3.

American Pastime is receiving a sizable drop in class today in Race 7 at Thistledown. In fact, this is going to be the smallest purse that American Pastime has competed for in his career. $56,000 is the previous low for American Pastime, so this is a steep drop down. His connections are looking for a win against an easier field, and could get it, but Woodland Walk will push him.

Woodland Walk is 14 for 33 in his career, and is coming off a win on June 11 over Altissimo by 1 ½ lengths. In his previous three outings, Woodland Walk has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st. All of those entries were for less than $30,000. He raced in a graded event way back on April 9, 2016 but hasn’t again since after finishing 10th in the Shakertown Stakes (Gr. 2). Woodland Walk has consistently ran well in this class, but he has to face a competitor today receiving a big drop in class. Up against a regular in the stakes circuit, look for Woodland Walk to get edged out by American Pastime.

The Bet
(7) AMERICAN PASTIME
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.