Another day of racing at Will Rogers Downs, with a ten-race card on the docket Tuesday. We took a split, as our underdog pick was a loser, but Nocturnal Mission came through for us in Race 4. It would have been a big score if Diamonds N Spurs raced hard for us, though it didn’t work out well. You’re going to take a lot of losses when it comes to horse racing. However, you don’t have to win nearly as much when you aren’t betting -110 lines on point spreads. Horse racing is a little different, where winning 53% of your picks isn’t necessarily a priority. That’s if you aren’t betting juiced up horses every day. Fortunately, there is value to be had all over the place and you don’t have to do that, or shouldn’t be, anyway.
The ultimate would be hitting a Pick 5 or Pick 6 Jackpot. The odds are stacked against the player in those games, but it can only take 50 cents to net over half a million or even more. We will continue our Pick 5 and Pick 6 betting series tomorrow with the Pick 6 at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday. Gulfstream Park will be back at it this weekend, so we’ll take a look at those cards, too. For now, though, let’s try and find a couple of winners at Will Rogers Downs on Aril 21, 2020.
Post Time: 1:15 CST
Distance: 5 ½ Furlongs
The first race of the day will feature a six-horse field running for a total purse of $13,750 on Tuesday. Mares and fillies are eligible for the event. It’s a small field with a couple of ponies with longer odds than the rest of the group. Beryl’s Flight is likely going to run into issues on Tuesday against the field. She has been well off recently, and it’s hard to see any improvements being made.
In 32 races, Beryl’s Flight has found the winner’s circle twice in her career. She won on November 23, 2017 and August 17, 2019, so it took a long time before finding another win. It’s been ten straight outings without a win, and she has continued to show discouraging signs as time passes. She has failed to show in seven straight races, with 9th, 7th, 7th, 4th, 5th, and 9th her recent finishes. Unless she catches a major break, it’s unlikely she threatens for the top spot.
Quiet Spring has had slightly more success recently, and is likely the better upset pick if that’s the direction you want to go. She doesn’t have a resume that’s particularly impressive, but at least fought in her last outing. Quiet Spring finished 3rd behind Shallow River and Nocturnal Mission.
The problem with that race was that Shallow River and Nocturnal Mission were by far the best horses in the race. Nocturnal Mission was 5 ¼ lengths ahead of Quiet Spring at the finish line. In any event, Quiet Spring has two wins in her last eight races, which came on September 7, 2019 and July 13, 2019.
Broke Financing has an adequate chance to win this race from the rail. It’s only 5 ½ furlongs and should benefit from the inside rail. She has shown in three of her last five races, including a win on December 1, 2019 at 5 ½ furlongs by 2 ¼ lengths. Broke Financing competed strongly in her most recent race on March 10, though couldn’t keep pace with Nocturnal Mission and Bella Alicita.
Expect Broke Financing to push Kiana’s Love and Love to Learn in this one. Kiana’s Love is coming off a strong performance on March 20, with a win over Hetty G by 2 lengths at 7 furlongs. She was 3rd out of the gate and took the lead over by the ¼ pole. That was all she wrote, as Kiana’s Love didn’t look back from there. This was after Kiana’s Love came just short on January 24 with a 2nd place finish at Golden Gate Fields. This will be her debut at Will Rogers Downs, having won 2 out of 7 races going into Claremore.
Love to Learn is coming off a win as well, though has been more inconsistent than Kiana’s Love. She won by 3 ½ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs over Gray Sky Mesa. However, Love to Learn hasn’t shown in five out of her previous seven races. She was 9th, 8th, 6th, 6th, 6th, and 2nd besides her recent victory. Love to Learn is currently the favorite on the morning lines over Love to Learn, but believe you’re going to find more value with a selection on Kiana’s Love.
Post Time: 5:15 CST
Horses in the feature race on Tuesday will be called to the post at around 5:15 CST in Race 9. Barring any scratches, seven horses will participate in the event. Jamming Cameron will get the inside rail out of the gate, though that’s about going for him in Race 9. He is going up a class after winning at Indiana Grand Race Course last summer.
This will be his first race since July 3, 2019. That was a 1 ¼ length win for Jamming Cameron for the second of his career. Both of his wins were at Indiana Grand Race Course. Four out of the five races he’s appeared in have been in Indiana. When he tried a tougher race at Churchill Downs, Jamming Cameron struggled in 5th on June 6, 2019.
You might find better value on the other end of the gate with Superior’s Boy. Superior’s Boy is a winner in 4 out of 17 races, with two straight wins on September 28, 2019 and October 23, 2019. He followed that up in 4th in his most recent effort on November 7, 2019. He’s up against some tough opponents, but is likely to be competitive.
The best underdog bet in Race 9 is likely on Man U. He is getting decent odds at +500 to win and may be worth a sprinkle. Man U has won 6 out of 20 races in his career and is coming off a win on March 23. It was the second win for Man U in four outings. He beat Kwik by ¾ lengths to record the win in wire-to-wire fashion. Note that he has won four out of hias last eight races and placed in four out of the previous five.
It’s tough to negate Kansas City Zip on Tuesday. He has raced against much better horses than presented today in Race 9 and still had success. Kansas City Zip placed in his last race and won prior to that on February 21 at Sam Houston Park from 5 ½ furlongs. He was the winner by 3 ¼ lengths over Ninth Street, showing impressive improvement throughout the race and kick in the homestretch. Kansas City Zip has won three out of his last five races and placed in four. Expect Kansas City Zip to add to his earnings with the win in the feature race at Will Rogers Down on Tuesday.