A perfect day at Will Rogers Downs on Tuesday, as we swept our three picks to go 3-0. The most frustrating part of that 3-0 day was the fact that I liked two other horses that I didn’t post. Some racecards you’re just feeling it, and others you can’t seem to hit a winner if you had inside information in the backstretch before the race. That’s kind of how horse racing handicapping goes.
When you’re betting at plus-money, you can make a good living at going perfect one day and swinging and whiffing the next when it comes to betting the ponies. Having said that, improper bankroll management can quickly put an end to even the best gamblers. If Stu Ungar was still around, he would have been able to teach you a lesson or two about managing your horse racing bankroll correctly.
The lesson here is that just because I went 3-0 yesterday there is no guarantee regarding today’s card. In any case, you play to win the game and anytime you step on the field, track, or locking a wager in, there should be some confidence that you expect to win. We’re going to go into Wednesday with confidence that we can hit the repeat button. Head below for our free Will Rogers Downs selections for May 20, 2020.
Post Time: 1:15 p.m. CST
Distance: 5 ½ Furlongs
We will get started right out of the gate in Race 1 at Will Rogers Downs. This event features a $9,900 purse on offer for eight horses. Fearless Will, Five Star Kip, and Race the Moon will all likely present bold bids in this one. If you are looking for an underdog to shoot for, there are plenty of options in this eight-horse field.
For the best value pick out of the underdogs, I’d have to lean with Alarm System. Not really much of a huge underdog at +600, but there is some value there. He has shown in 2 of his previous 4 races and 3 out of his previous 6. Alarm System has been wildly inconsistent and maybe this is one of his good days.
Fearless Will is a winner in 3 of 14 races in his career and has some stakes racing under his resume. He was unable to excel in any of them, finishing 6th, 10th, 12th in three stakes races. Fearless Will clearly doesn’t have the talent to compete at that level, but is expected to run better in an event like this. He showed in 3rd in his most recent outing on April 28. Fearless Will was a spot behind Race the Moon at the wire by 3 ¾ lengths. He was the favorite in that race and disappointed.
Race the Moon had the next best odds to win the race. In that sense, it was a good run for Race the Moon, as he placed in 2nd as expected. Race the Moon has placed in each of his previous three races, so he’s been consistently running there. Can he do one better in this race? It looks like it could be shaping up for Race the Moon to place for 2nd yet again. Having to deal with Five Star Kip isn’t going to be the easiest in this one.
Five Star Kip drops in class significantly after finishing 9th on April 16. Against much better competition than this race, Five Star Kip placed on March 26 at Oaklawn Park, finishing 2 ¾ lengths back of a victory. He’s a winner in 3 of 27 races in his career. This looks like a spot where his owner is looking to pick on inferior opponents to get an easier win than he could get elsewhere.
Post Time: 4:15 p.m. CST
A ten-horse field will head to the starting gate for a 1-mile race for a $9,900 purse. Look for Foreign Creation and Maui Jane to duel in this one, with Kottoncandy Kisses likely stalking. For an upset pick, Sheza Hot Flash looks like a decent choice. After winning as a first-time starter on March 16, Sheza Hot Flash was unable to follow it up with the same kind of effort. She looked to jump up a class and got buried for it. Sheza Hot Flash finished 10th and 7th after debuting in fine form. Maybe she can find the same form from March 16 and is a threat today.
Kottoncandy Kisses is a winner in 1 of 15 races and looked to be in okay shape in her last performance. She showed in 3rd behind Maui Jane and Gp’s Amazing Grace. Her last victory took place on November 22 at Remington Park. Since then Kottoncandy Kisses has gone winless in seven straight outings. She will have to contend with Foreign Creation and Maui Jane bothering her in this event.
Foreign Creation drops a class after finishing 6th, 5th, 3rd, 5th in her previous four performances. That’s decent enough to work with. Foreign Creation wasn’t that bad against better competition and should be able to be up front in this race. Placing should be within reach for Foreign Creation here. The horse from the No. 1 post position, Maui Jane, is likely going to be in a spot to win here.
She’s a +300 favorite on the morning-line, but is more of a +200 horse, the way I see it. Maui Jane has a win in ten races and could be ready to bite again on Wednesday. She has placed in each of her previous two races, losing by 3 lengths against Acona on March 31, and then barely lost on May 6 by a neck to Gp’s Amazing Grace. This should result in a close battle between Foreign Creation. I will go with Maui Jane edging out the competition for a win in Race 7.
Post Time: 5:45 p.m. CST
Distance:5 ½ Furlongs
12 horses are signed up to run 5 ½ furlongs for a $8,250 purse to conclude another day of racing at Will Rogers Downs. The No. 10 and No. 9 horses are likely the best in this field, but there are several underdogs looking for an upset. Dominante from the No. 1 post position might be the best dog to sprinkle a little on. He has won 4 of 18 races in his career and is dropping a class for this one. Dominante hasn’t tasted much success since December, but could surprise after the class drop. He’s finished 10th, 7th, 7th, 5th in his previous four performances.
Lookie Loo heads into Wednesday with wins in 4 of 23 races in his career. He’s been adequate recently, but is really going to need increased form to win this race. Lookie Loo has finished 5th, 5th, 7th, 3rd, 9th, 4th in his previous six outings. His last win was on November 13, 2019. Lookie Loo beat Kiss Him Goodbye by 2 ¼ lengths to get his first victory since June. Fayette Warrior is looking to take advantage of some weaker prey in Race 10.
Just like Five Star Kip, Fayette Warrior drops down class significantly in an attempt to have better results. He has 3 wins in 22 outings in his career. Fayette Warrior ran well against this type of competition in February, as he placed and won on February 2 and February 13. In the win, Fayette Warrior topped the field by ¾ lengths. His trainer thought chasing bigger purses against tougher competition was the answer, but Fayette Warrior went 5th, 4th, 4th, 5th in his next four races. Back down to a level where he should feel more comfortable, Fayette Warrior likely thrives on the weaker competition.