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Angels at Orioles – Free Pick Run Total June 27th

Los Angeles Angels -120 vs. Baltimore Orioles +110 (Total: 7.5)

Jared Weaver (7-1, 2.40 ERA) vs. Jason Hammel (8-2, 2.61 ERA)

Last night we hit on an easy double-dip getting the Angels at -130 and then doubling up on the runline at +125 and covering easy with a 7-3 win.  Tonight, I’m going back to the well with the same series, albeit a different wager.

Tonight features an absolutely fantastic pitching matchup between veteran ace Jared Weaver and Jason Hammel who in his first year with the Orioles, much like the team as a whole, is defying expectations and delivering a remarkable season.  His career mark entering the season 36-45 with an ERA near five.  This season, he is 8-2 and his team is a sparkling 11-3 in games he has started with an ERA of just 2.61.  He will have his work cut out for him tonight with the powerful Halo lineup, but his recent performance indicates he just might be up for the challenge.

Hammel is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last three starts with a WHIP of just 0.86.  The Orioles are 3-0 in those games, predictably.   Weaver has been EVEN BETTER in his last three outings, whose team has also won all three, and Weaver’s ERA is just 0.64 with a WHIP and 0.74 ERA.  Tonight has all the makings of a great pitcher’s duel.

In six home starts, Hammel has an ERA under two and hasn’t lost this season.  Despite that stat, I still like the Angels tonight to win, especially at just -118.  However, my official play tonight is going to focus on the run total.  I like the UNDER 7.5.

The Angels have gone under in 13 of their last 16 games on the road, and the UNDER is 4-1 in their last five road games when the total was set between 7 and 8.5 runs.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Weaver’s last ten road starts as a road favorite between -110 and -150.  This indicates that on the road, when the pitching matchup is slightly in Los Angeles’s favor, Weaver has delivered and kept the opposing offense at bay.  Factoring in also Hammel’s success pitching at home this season instills even more confidence that tonight’s game should stay pretty low.

We’ve hit two pick in a row, three if you count last night’s double-up as two (which my bank account does!), and I feel pretty good about tonight’s game as well.  Take the UNDER and enjoy a nice pitcher’s duel tonight in Baltimore.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL UNDER -7.5