We took another heartbreaker yesterday when we backed the Colorado Rockies against the Cincinnati Reds. The Rockies jumped out to a 5-1 lead, and they looked to be cruising to the win. They took a 5-2 lead into the eighth inning where they then gave up two runs to cut the lead to just one run. The Rockies then brought in their closer Wade Davis, to slam the door in the ninth and unfortunately for us, we were the victims of yet another blown save.
Wade Davis blew just one save in thirty-three chances last year for the Cubs and was expected to be a high impact player for this Rockies team that is making a push for the playoffs. Davis leads the National League in saves with twenty so far this year, so this one was a bit hard to see coming as he has been every bit the pitcher the Rockies were hoping they had acquired in the offseason. What can you do, our late inning woes continued last night. Even the best of the best closers are going to blow a save once in a while. For today’s pick, I will take a look at game one of a three game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Colorado Friday for game one of a three-game series with the Rockies. Only a half of a game separates the two teams for first place in the National League West Division. The DBacks were dreadful for much of the month of May but have turned things around recently and have won six out of their last nine games. The Rockies are reeling a bit as they have lost five out of their last seven games.
Starting tonight for Arizona is Zack Greinke (4-4 3.44 ERA), and for the Rockies, it is German Marquez (4-5 4.38 ERA). This game is an even pick ‘em right now as both teams are -110. The game total over-under is set at ten and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 5:40 PM PST from Coors Field in Denver.
The Arizona DBacks have been a tough team to nail down this year. They started out the year as one of the best teams in the National League and then completely fell apart in the month of May. They seem to have righted the ship now in June though and are stringing together some wins. They have been an elite pitching team all season long, but the lineup has just been inconsistent.
Tonight’s starter for Arizona is Zack Greinke. Greinke has had a couple of rough patches this year, but for the most part, he has been very good. He has given up two earned runs, or fewer in eight of his twelve starts this season. He finished up the Month of May with a very solid 2.64 ERA. However the DBacks inability to score runs saw him go 0-2 during the month. In his lone start against the Rockies this year, Greinke was strong. He pitched five and two-thirds of an inning and gave up just one run while striking out nine.
Starting tonight for the Rockies is German Marquez. Marquez has been similar to Greinke in that most of the time he is pretty good, but he has been known to blow up. He has four different starts this year where he gave up at least four earned runs. His struggles have been almost exclusively at home in that rarified air of Coors Field. In his six home starts, Marquez is just 1-3 with an ERA of 7.22. In comparison, his road ERA is five full runs lower at 2.06. So, if you are going to face Marquez, you want to catch him at home, not on the road.
And that is really is the case with the entire Rockies team this year. They are just terrible at home. They have the second-fewest home wins of any team in the major leagues this year with eleven. They just aren’t built like the traditional Colorado teams that were made for Coors Field. This team is trying to win lower scoring games this season. It has worked on the road, but not at all at home.
I like the DBacks in this matchup. Baseball is a streaky game, and right now the DBacks are playing hot, and the Rockies are struggling. Both of these teams are fairly evenly matched, but in this spot, I feel like the DBacks are getting the best of it. They have the much better starter on the mound, and they are playing well at the moment. So, I see some solid value in backing them at even money in this one. Give me the Arizona DBacks at even money -110 tonight in game one in Colorado!