We picked up another win yesterday when we backed the San Francisco Giants against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The line moved all over the place. It opened with Arizona as small favorites, and I jumped all over it. By the time the bet closed out, the public was backing my pick as the Giants closed as small favorites. I just loved the idea of getting a pitcher like Madison Bumgarner at home at such a reasonable price. The guy has been nearly unhittable at home this season, and it felt that the Giants were clearly the value side of the bet.
Bumgarner lowered that ERA even further last night as he was dominant yet again. All told, he pitched seven innings of shutout ball. He wasn’t able to pick up the win despite the strong effort though as he didn’t get a single run of support. The Giants did cash our ticket for us in the end, when they walked the game off in the bottom of the ninth on a Gorkys Hernandez RBI single to take the game 1-0.
The Giants have really struggled to score runs recently, but that hasn’t stopped them from winning games. The Giants have won five out of their last six games despite averaging less than three runs per win. The trend of the Giants being a very good home team has continued in this series as they have taken the first two games from the first place Diamondbacks.
For Arizona, the DBacks fall into a first-place tie with the Colorado Rockies with the loss. Arizona has lost four out of their last five games and have been shutout in back to back games. For today’s pick, I will stay right here in San Francisco to break down game three of this series between the Giants and the DBacks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are in San Francisco Wednesday for game three of a three-game series with the Giants. The Giants have taken the first two games of the series and are looking for the improbable sweep tonight in the series finale. The bats have turned off at the worst possible time for Arizona, and they are hoping to salvage one game of the series tonight in the finale.
Starting for Arizona is Zack Godley (13-7 4.59 ERA), and for the Giants, it is Dereck Rodriguez (6-1 2.30 ERA). The Diamondbacks are small road favorites at -120. The game total over-under is set at seven and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM PST from AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Dereck Rodriguez is quietly becoming the best pitcher you haven’t heard of this season. The rookie right-hander, and son of Hall of Famer catcher Pudge Rodriguez, has been stellar for the Giants this year. He joined the Giants rotation in late May and since then has gone 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA in fifteen starts.
The Giants are 10-5 in games with Rodriguez on the mound. He has really picked it up recently as in August he has an ERA of just 1.35 in three starts. The guy hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last ten starts, and he has held teams to two runs or fewer in thirteen of his fifteen starts. Similar to last night’s starter Madison Bumgarner, Rodriguez is close to unhittable at home. In eight home starts, he is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA, and opposing batters are hitting just .178 against him.
Arizona will counter with Zack Godley. Godley came into the season with a lot of hype as many were expecting him to build on his stellar first season last year as a regular starter for Arizona. But that hasn’t really been the case. After finishing last season with a 3.37 ERA, his ERA this season is more than a full run higher at 4.59. He is struggling even worse in the second half of the season as he has an ERA of 5.25 in August.
It may or may not be a coincidence, but Godley’s two worst starts of the year have come against the Giants. In his last two starts against San Francisco, Godley has pitched a combined seven and a third innings and has gotten hammered for fourteen earned runs. In Dereck Rodriguez’s one start against the DBacks this year? He pitched six and a third shutout innings.
This is another game where I just don’t understand the line. You have one starter that is struggling badly right now in Godley, facing off against a guy that has been nearly unhittable all season long, in Rodriguez. Throw in the fact that the Giants have won the first two games of this series and that the Giants are an elite home team and you wonder what is keeping this number where it stands?
I liked the Giants as home dogs in both of the first two games of this series, and I like them, even more, tonight in game three. The DBacks haven’t managed a single run off of this Giants team in this series, and that was against Chris Stratton and Madison Bumgarner, two guys that aren’t having nearly the success this season that Dereck Rodriguez is enjoying.
Don’t let the fact that you don’t know much about Rodriguez scare you off the fact he is the much better pitcher in this matchup. Both teams can’t hit a lick right now, and another low scoring game seems highly likely. Give me the San Francisco Giants as home underdogs tonight in game three at +110!