Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Pick – July 11

A key divisional showdown will unfold Monday evening in the NL West as the streaking San Francisco Giants will play host to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona will start surprising pitcher Merrill Kelly vs. San Francisco, while the G-Men will counter with equally-surprising Alex Cobb. While both pitchers were not necessarily expected to put together quality campaigns, both Cobb and Kelly are giving their team a chance to win night in, night out.

While Arizona is still struggling in the standings, in a wide-open NL wild-card race, anything is possible. That is especially true with how keen they’ve been at the plate of late. This D’Backs squad is raking and has gotten especially hot here in the month of July. While results haven’t followed due to some poor pitching and bullpen outings, Arizona’s offense will be a threat to the Giants in this series.

San Francisco sits just above .500, and they too exploded offensively yesterday in a rout of their rivals, the San Diego Padres. The Giants are firmly in the playoff hunt, but will need to hit better in the second-half to truly contend for the post-season. The Giants have lost 8 of their past 11, and they’ve also already dropped a series to the Diamondbacks, placing some extra urgency on this homestand.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (7-5, 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 80 strikeouts); Giants: Alex Cobb (3-3, 5.05 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 59 strikeouts)

With both teams entering Monday night in mini slumps, a win is desperately needed from both sides. As front offices finalize trade deadline plans, a big series for either Arizona or San Francisco could go a long way in settling the NL West hierarchy. For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for this thrilling Giants/D’Backs series. Enjoy the game, folks!

Arizona Diamondback vs. San Francisco Giants Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

  • Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
  • San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+130)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (+145)
  • San Francisco Giants (-165)
  • Over 7.5 (-110)
  • Under 7.5 (-110)
Overall Record 38-48 43-41
Over/Under/Push 39-44-3 41-37-6
Home/Away Record 16-22 21-20
Runs Per Game 4.3 4.7
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.7 4.3
Team Batting Average .222 .235
Bullpen ERA 4.63 4.66

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction:

Despite the fact that Arizona enters San Francisco in a bit of slump losing six of their past nine, the squad is doing a lot of things right and simply not getting results. Yesterday the Snakes dropped a tough 3-2 loss vs. Colorado, and though they lost the series, showed to be the better team throughout the weekend.

Arizona is hitting the ball better for starters, making solid and hard contact with much more regularity. They’re 12th in wRC+ at 109 over the past fortnight, and are no longer striking out as much as they were back in April and May. While Alex Cobb has been erratic at times, he’s a strikeout thrower, and the keen eye of Arizona’s hitters could complicate getting outs for the G-Men.

On the bump, Merrill Kelly has been as consistent as they come in baseball. On a sub-par team, he’s provided excellent results despite limited run support. His xERA sits at 3.54, and has clearly emerged as one of the top pitchers on this staff. His metrics throughout the season have steadily risen as well, and Kelly should be able to be in complete control against a light-hitting Giants’ squad.

Though the San Francisco offense has not had a stellar 2022 to date, they’re coming off quite the showing yesterday vs. San Diego. The G-Men exploded for 12 runs, but don’t let that fool you into thinking it’s going to repeat vs. Kelly. San Francisco sits just 24th in MLB in terms of wRC+ over the past two weeks, and are struggling with walks to strikeouts, and getting on base as well. Though they’ve faced some tough pitching, the power hasn’t been there. Kelly is hard on hitters and gives up little hard contact, and it could mean San Francisco struggles to breakthrough on back-to-back days.

And while Alex Cobb has been much better than his basic stat-line and ERA would indicate, he has really struggled vs. Arizona at times, and as recent as this season. Cobb was tuned up for four runs on eight hits, with just three strikeouts. Again, if his strikeouts pitches aren’t moving, it could be a long night for the veteran righty. Look for the hot-hitting D’Backs to be able to again secure some hard contact off of Cobb on Monday.

Diamondbacks vs. Giants Trends To Know:

  • Diamondbacks are 8-21 in their last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Diamondbacks are 8-17 in their last 25 Monday games.
  • Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
  • Giants are 16-35 in their last 51 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
  • Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 overall.
  • Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win.
  • Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in San Francisco.

Though both teams have been slumping, expect Kelly to outduel Alex Cobb on Monday night and ride the hotter hitting D-Backs’ offense to a needed victory.  While Arizona has not fared well in San Francisco, the D’Backs offensive make-up of contact and speed on the basepaths should frustrate Cobb and the Giants, and this San Francisco lineup struggles when it has to play from behind.  At a juicy, inflated price – look for Arizona to secure a key win on Monday night.

Our Pick
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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