We notched a pretty easy winner with the Rays and Mariners keeping the bats silent in a 4-1 Mariners win. It was nice to pick up the UNDER winner with a few runs to spare. There were a few other teams that scored the runs to make up for it yesterday. The Yankees tallied a ridiculous 11 runs in the first two innings against the Royals en route to a 14-1 victory just two days after giving up 15 to the Rangers in a loss. It’s a weird sport sometimes, right? Meanwhile some big hitters hit some big flies yesterday; Ryan Braun notched his 12th, Giancarlo Stanton hit his 13th and Kris Bryant hit his don’t-look-now 6th homerun despite a slow power start and late(r) call-up from AAA. Watch as the weather gets warmer, we could see some power numbers climb a bit and some of these lower run totals become more vulnerable…
Let’s see if we can make this week one full of winners by stacking another one today.
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Today’s Free Pick:
Houston Astros -102 at Baltimore Orioles -111 (Total: 9)
Scott Feldman (3-4, 5.17 ERA) vs. Chris Tillman (2-5, 6.10 ERA)
Just looking at the starting pitching matchups, it is easy to see why this runline tonight is about as high as a non-Coors Field run line gets. But is it truly warranted? Both of these offenses average just a shade under 4.5 runs per game and neither bullpen is bad, in fact the Astros has been downright splendid at a 2.12 combined ERA. If Feldman gets into too much trouble, they have a good relief corps waiting in the wings.
And I’m not sure Feldman will get into too much trouble. The former Oriole has been good in his visits to Camden Yards wearing the opposing uniform. He is 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA in three starts. His last month has been rough even though his last three starts have actually brought his ERA down just a little bit.
On the opposing mound, I’d be more concerned about Tillman who is looking less and less like the postseason opening game starter he was several years ago. His ERA is over six and his last three starts haven’t been any better as his WHIP climbed to 1.76. That’s way too many baserunners, especially against a team that can run like the Astros.
I think the Astros are a great value at even money tonight and I think Feldman will pitch well enough to get the ball to a solid bullie who can shut the door. Tillman may have a quick hook tonight if it is warranted. This could be one that you sweat a little if you join me on the UNDER; I could see five or six runs scoring earlier in the game before things settle down and a bunch of zeros finish out the scoreboard. I also like Houston to win – so I am doubling up on this game tonight. Houston and the UNDER 9.