Our play on the under in the Pirates/Braves game was looking fine until A.J. Burnett decided to turn into a head case at the midway point. In fact, you could have nabbed the over in that game for something around +400 prior to those disastrous two innings. I really liked the over in the Athletics/Brewers game as the day progressed, ended up biting, and that ended up paying off to split even on the day. I’m going to go right back to the hand that fed me on my pick for today.
Free MLB Pick:
Oakland Athletics -120 at Milwaukee Brewers +100 (Total: 9)
A.J Griffin (5-4, 4.04 ERA) vs. Kyle Lohse (1-6, 4.37 ERA)
It didn’t take long for the runs to start coming yesterday. On the second pitch of the game, Coco Crisp connected on a deep ball to put the A’s up 1-0. The next inning looked quite similar to the first, as Brandon Moss went yard to make it a 2-0 game. The Athletics didn’t look back, picking up an impressing 10-2 victory on Monday night. Tonight A.J Griffin and Kyle Lohse take the mound in their second of three games between the Athletics and Brewers.
While the A’s had fun beating up on the Brewers pitching last night, I believe the Brewers will return the favor tonight. They are a team that needs to rely on their bat because they don’t have a shutdown pitching staff, so it is imperative that they put a big spot on the scoreboard. I’m not saying they’re going to win, but I feel their offense will be much better than the effort they put out yesterday. In their three game series against the Phillies, the Brew Crew put up an impressive 18 runs. On the year they are 33-22 to the OVER.
Both pitchers are struggling to the least coming into Tuesday night. Kyle Lohse also does not have a great history against the Athletics either. He has a 5.54 ERA and 1-3 record against them. In his last three starts, Lohse has a 6.61 ERA with a god awful .370 OBP. The Athletics lineup doesn’t strike fear into anyone on paper, but don’t feel fooled, they can hit. If the 10 runs they poured on last night isn’t enough to prove my point, the Athletics are 35-24 in OVERs this season. While Josh Reddick is trying to discover a rhythm since coming off the DL, I think his presence amps the offense up even more.
Lohse has been pretty awful of late, but A.J Griffin has had his difficulties of his own. In his last three starts, he has a 5.71 ERA. These weren’t against juggernaut offenses, pitching against the Giants, Astros, and Royals. I do like the OVER a little more tonight after Milwaukee’s poor showing at the plate last night; I like them to bounce back with some runs. The fact that I got it at plus money makes me like it even more.
Free Pick: TOTAL OVER 9
San Diego Padres +120 at Los Angeles Dodgers -140 (Total: 8)
Clayton Richard (1-5, 7.86 ERA) vs. Ted Lilly (0-2, 4.26)
The Dodgers are a team that are limping around on one leg, the injury bug has hit them big time. Last night they held on for a much needed win with call up Stephen Fife on the mound.
For tonight, this is more of a play against the Padres’ pitcher, Clayton Richard. Richard is up there as one of the worst pitchers currently active. He has a monster ERA of 7.86 and it’s even more jaw dropping on the road, with a 9.56 ERA! Should I go on? Well okay, his last three starts have been brutal as well: 8.80 ERA, .378 OBP, 1.83 WHIP, and 6 HRs allowed. Oh, and one more thing, Richard’s ERA in night games is 11.85. Yikes.
The Dodgers’ starter, Ted Lilly, looks like Cy Young with his 4.26 ERA compared to Richard’s mess. The Padres have had difficulties with lefties this year, yielding a .229 ERA. Conversely, the Dodgers have actually been doing well against left handers with a .271 ERA. The Dodgers got a win from young blood yesterday, and I think they come back tonight and earn another W with the wily veteran Lilly assuming the starting duties.
Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -135