With the NFL kicking off their season last night with the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles beating the Atlanta Falcons, the NFL is poised to dominate the sports talk in the coming weeks. And rightly so, the NFL is a huge sport that attracts a lot of betting action, but I want to remind everyone that late-season baseball betting can be some of the most profitable of the entire year, so don’t completely turn off America’s pastime just yet.
This late season betting has been good to us, as with a quick glance at my betting tracker, I see that we have gone 22-15 with 16 money line underdog winners in the last three weeks. That is a solid run of production and had you been betting all of my picks, you would be up a handsome sum. September can provide even more value as teams start gearing up for playoff runs and the rosters expand to forty players. All that new information can make it tough for the books to set good lines, and we will be right here to take advantage of it. For today’s pick, I will take a look at the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Atlanta Braves are in Arizona Friday for game two of a four-game series with the DBacks. The Braves took game one last night in a very entertaining contest. The Braves built a big lead early and held on to win the game in extra frames 7-6, to take the series lead. With the win, the Braves extended their first-place lead over the Philadelphia Phillies to three and a half games. With the loss, DBacks fall to two and a half games back of the Colorado Rockies in their division race.
Starting tonight for Arizona is Patrick Corbin (10-5 3.06 ERA), and for the Braves it is Kevin Gausman (9-9 3.78 ERA). The DBacks are big -160 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM PST from Chase Field in Arizona.
I will be the first to admit that I was not a huge fan of the move to bring over Kevin Gausman over from the Baltimore Orioles at the trade deadline. To me, it seemed like the Braves were one great starter away from being a lock to win their division and with Gausman being their marquee move, it was a bit, let’s say underwhelming.
But I am eating all kinds of crow right now as this guy has been absolutely performing since the trade. In six starts since the trade, Gausman is 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA. He is getting deep into games, and the Braves have won his last five starts. In his last three starts, he has been particularly dialed in as he has pitched a combined nineteen innings and has allowed just one earned run.
Gausman has been everything the Braves needed, and they are looking like the prohibitive favorites to win the National League East with just a couple of weeks left on the regular season schedule. And I suppose this wasn’t all that hard to see coming as Gausman was a former first round pick and pitchers almost always seem to do better when going form the hitter friendly American League to the National League.
Patrick Corbin is another guy that that has exceeded all expectations this year. He is third in the National League in strikeouts, behind just Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. It seems every time that Corbin losses, he is a hard-luck loser. We saw that in his last two starts, that the DBacks lost. He pitched a total of twelve innings and allowed just two earned runs, yet the DBacks came up short both times. Six different times this season, Corbin allowed two runs or fewer only to see his team lose the game. So, when you look at his mediocre 10-5 record, just know it could very easily be much better.
These two teams are very evenly matched in this game. The Braves are just two games better than the DBacks on the season, and both of these pitchers are pitching very well at the moment. So, it was very surprising to me to see Arizona has such huge favorites. This is a coin flip game if I have ever seen one. I am not a huge fan of betting against Patrick Corbin, the guy is filthy and can easily rack up ten or more strikeouts in a start, but getting to back the first place Atlanta Braves and Kevin Gausman as massive underdogs is too much value to pass up on.
So, I will do what I always do in a coin flip type of game, and that is back the side getting all the juice. This game could go either way and being on the side getting +150 is a very profitable situation. Give me the Atlanta Braves as big road dogs tonight from Arizona at +150!