We hit a little bump in the road last night when we took a shot on another outright money Line underdog when we backed the Boston Red Sox against the San Diego Padres. The game was a very competitive one, and neither starting pitcher lasted very long. This game was turned over to both respective bullpens by the sixth inning, and the ‘pens did a great job of shutting down the opposing lineup.
Both teams struggled to hit the ball, and the Padres three-run first inning was enough to hang onto the win, eventually taking the game, 3-1. What can you do, even when you have been as hot as we have been in the last two weeks, winning north of 80% of our bets, you are going to lose a game here and there. We won’t let it bother us too much though as for today’s pick we will head to the Rocky Mountains where the Colorado Rockies host the Atlanta Braves.
The Atlanta Braves are looking to stay hot tonight as they swing by Colorado for a quick one-game makeup game with the Rockies. This game will finish out the season series for the Rockies and Braves that started in April and was rained out. The Braves are going to have a tight turnaround as they played in New York City against the Mets yesterday.
But seemingly nothing can slow this Braves team down right now as they have won eight straight games, including back to back sweeps over the Mets and Marlins. Atlanta has yet to lose a series here in August, and they have done a great job of beating good teams as they have recent series wins over the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Minnesota Twins, both first place teams. With the makeup game jammed in here, the Braves are in the middle of a grueling twenty-six games in twenty-seven days stretch.
For the Rockies, their season has turned to disappointment. They came into the year looking to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West Division crown; instead, they are in last place, a whopping twenty-seven and a half games back of LA. And things are getting worse as the season winds down for the Rockies as they have lost six out of their last seven games and that comes on the heels of losing eight out of the first ten games on the month.
Starting for the Braves is Julio Teheran (8-8 3.53 ERA), and for the Rockies it is Tim Melville (1-0 1.29 ERA). The game total over-under is set at thirteen runs. The Braves are -143 road favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 PM PST from Coors Field in Colorado.
Julio Teheran has been very good in the second half of the year for the Braves. In July he had a 1.48 ERA in six starts, and the Braves went 5-1. Here in August, he had one rough outing against a red-hot Mets team, but in his other three starts, he has been stellar. In his last outing, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Marlins. Two starts before that, he lasted seven innings again, allowing just one earned run against the Miami, the Braves won both games.
Teheran has done a great job of giving his team a chance to win each night out, and after going 3-4 in his first seven starts of the season, Atlanta has a 14-6 record in his last twenty starts. Teheran has allowed two runs or fewer in eight out of his last ten starts. Despite the Rockies lineup getting the huge advantage of playing their home games at Coors Field, they have been swinging a very mediocre bat as of late as they are fifteenth in the majors in runs scored in August.
Tim Melville is the type of guy you only start when your season has lost all hope. This guy has pitched just seven games in his big-league career, going back to 2016. The Rockies found him playing in the Atlantic League earlier this season and with their rotation in tatters and their season over, have decided to give the twenty-nine-year-old a shot to pitch the rest of the way out. No good team would ever allow a guy like Melville to pitch meaningful innings.
Normally I would be hesitant to back a team that has been forced to play this many consecutive games and this much travel. But then I am reminded that the oldest guy on this Braves team is like twenty-five year’s old and that this group of youngsters won’t have any trouble staying motivated or energized. I have a feeling that they are going to love hitting in the rarefied air of Coors Field, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them hit double-digits runs with a guy like Melville on the mound.
In the Braves previous two games this season at Coors Field, they scored a combined fifteen runs. I expect a similar level of scoring tonight. And with Teheran pitching so well right now, I see this game being a blowout. So, clearly, the Braves are the side to back. And the -143 number isn’t a bad one, and I do see value in taking the Braves at that price.
But when I take a look at the run line, it seems to offer even more value. I am always very careful of run line bets, as that run and a half, can be tough to cover. But the run line is tailor-made for situations like this one. Where you have one team that can’t lose right now and is leading their division. And another team, that can’t find ways to win and is completely out of contention.
The game total for this one is a sky-high thirteen runs, and I don’t see the Rockies scoring too many of those runs. I see Atlanta winning, and winning big, today in Colorado. Feels like a 9-2 score if you ask me. So, I will take a little bit of a gamble and lay that run and a half and chase the bigger payout tonight. Give me the Atlanta Braves on the run line at -107 today from Coors Field!