Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Odds and Pick for June 29th

Wednesday is another great day to be a baseball bettor with action scattered throughout the day. About half of the day’s 15 games will take place in the evening, which should give you something to do after dinner.

The Braves and Phillies will get together again for another NL East rivalry jaunt in Philadelphia. Atlanta came to town and came away with a 5-3 victory in Tuesday’s series opener, thanks to a couple of home runs from their new first baseman, Matt Olson.

The Phillies are still three games over the .500 mark, which is good for third place in the division. The Mets are still leading the way in the NL East at 47-28, while the Braves have closed to within four games of New York. Eight games separate the Phillies from first place, however.

Wednesday’s rematch features an interesting pitching matchup. Ranger Suarez will take a turn for the Phillies, with Kyle Wright set to toe the rubber for the Braves. Oddsmakers once again like Atlanta here, with the visitors listed as solid -135 moneyline favorites.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are chugging right along following another slow start. The defending World Series champs hovered around the .500 mark for most of the first couple of months, but they’ve really turned it on in June. Atlanta is 20-5 this month heading into Wednesday’s game, and they’ve closed the gap considerably on the Mets atop the division.

Unfortunately, Ronald Acuna Jr. will miss a third straight game tonight. The Braves’ perennial MVP candidate fouled a ball off of his foot in Saturday’s game, and he’s been unable to put much pressure on the foot since. His absence leaves an All-Star-sized hole at the top of the Braves’ lineup, but they did just win a title without Acuna a season ago.

Wright has been enjoying a breakout season for the Braves. The former top prospect struggled to live up to expectations after initially breaking though to the majors, but he’s finally starting to come around.

Through 14 starts, Wright is 8-4 with a solid 3.18 ERA. That’s a huge improvement over his career 4.70 ERA, and he posted a mark just under 10 in only two big-league starts a season ago.
The overall numbers are solid, but he’s been a bit shaky over his last two starts. Wright has allowed a total of nine earned runs on a whopping 21 hits in back-to-back outings against the Cubs and Giants.

This will be Wright’s second go-round against the Phillies on the year. He held Philadelphia to three runs on just three hits with five strikeouts across 6.2 innings in an eventual 4-1 loss back on May 26th in Atlanta.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies’ slow start eventually cost manager Joe Girardi his job, but the team has played better baseball since Girardi was replaced by ex-bench coach Rob Thomas. Philadelphia is 17-7 since Thomas took over for the veteran manager.

Whether the turnaround will be enough to engineer a legitimate playoff push obviously remains to be seen. The Phillies’ best postseason hopes likely lie with the Wild Card given the large deficit they’re already facing in the division. Philadelphia is only three games behind St. Louis for the third and final National League Wild Card ticket.

The Phillies will turn to Suarez, who enjoyed one of his finest outings of the season in his last start against the Padres. The left-hander has struggled for most of the season, but he pitched into the eighth inning while allowing just a couple of runs in a 6-2 win over San Diego last week.

Suarez, who is much more of a groundball pitcher than a strikeouts guy, is 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA through his first four starts this month. That ERA is significantly better than his 4.23 mark for the full 2022 campaign.

This will also be Suarez’s second look at the Braves this season. Atlanta got to him the first time, scoring five runs on six hits in 4.1 innings against the 26-year-old southpaw.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Game Pick

So far this season, both the Braves and Phillies have been around the .500 mark against the runline.

Please Note:
Atlanta is 38-37-0 on the runline, while the Phillies are 37-38-0 ATR.

Wright has gotten good results this season, but I’m not convinced he’s suddenly transformed himself into an ace-caliber pitcher. This guy struggled for years until making a few mechanical adjustments, and we’re still dealing with a very small track record of success.

Suarez, on the flip side, showed last year after his promotion into the rotation that he’s capable of holding things down as a back-end starter. I like the value in the Phillies to bounce back with a win tonight at their favorable +115 moneyline odds. I expect the bats to flip the script and do some damage against Wright, which wasn’t really the case the last time they met.

Pick:
Phillies

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Recap

  • Moneyline: Braves -135, Phillies +115
  • Runline: Braves -1.5 (+120), Phillies +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 runs (-105), Under 8.5 runs (-115)
  • Pick: Phillies (+115)

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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