Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Pick – September 28th

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it! We picked up another win last night when we backed the Colorado Rockies on the run line, at home, against the fading Philadelphia Phillies. This was the fourth time this week that I had backed the Rockies on the run line in this series and we came out of it unscathed at 4-0. Taking home run line bets is a quick way to go broke in a hurry, but the Phillies have completely given up at this point, and the Rockies are surging towards a division title.

The game was actually a bit closer than the first three games were as we had a little bit of sweat in this one. The first three games of the series saw the Rockies stomp the Phillies to the tune of a combined 34-4 score. Last night the Rockies led throughout and had built up a 5-1 lead heading into the eighth inning. The Phillies cut the lead to 5-3 in the eighth on a two-run bomb from Carlos Santana, to make us sweat it just a bit. But in the end, the Rockies picked up the win, and we cashed another ticket.

The last week or two of baseball is a very unique time to be betting. Most teams are out of contention and thinking of the offseason. While the teams that are in the mix are generally a combination of teams trying to rest up for the playoffs and set their rotations or battling for positioning. For today’s pick, we will look at a team, that is battling for home-field advantage, as the Atlanta Braves play the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Philadelphia Phillies open up their final series of the year tonight as they host the Atlanta Braves for game one of a three-game set. The Phillies are mired in their biggest slump of the season as they have lost eight straight games but will be trying to play spoiler tonight at home against a hated division rival. The Braves are looking for a strong finish that will get them home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Entering play today the Braves have an identical record as the Colorado Rockies for home-field advantage in the first round of the National League playoffs.

Starting tonight for the Braves is Mike Foltynewicz (12-10 2.88 ERA), and for the Phillies, it is Jerad Eickhoff (0-0 9.00 ERA). The Braves are -137 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 PM PST from Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philly.

The Braves have had the division title locked up for weeks, but with the recent surge by the Colorado Rockies, they are now in a dogfight for home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. And the Braves are hoping they can do what the Rockies just did, and that is sweep this Philadelphia Phillies team.

Atlanta will turn to Mike Foltynewicz to get the series off on the right foot. Foltynewicz has been great most of the season and pitched well down the stretch, helping the Braves lock up the National League East Division title. In August and September, Foltynewicz is 5-3 with an ERA of under three runs. The Braves just swept this Philly team two series ago, and in that series, Foltynewicz picked up a win by pitching seven and a third innings and allowing just two runs on only two hits.

The Phillies will counter with some guy named Jerad Eickhoff. Eickhoff was a late-season September call-up and will be making his first and only start of the season for Philadelphia. Eickhoff was actually a regular starter for the Phillies for the last two seasons with very limited success. Last year he went 4-8 with an ERA of nearly five runs. In very little work since being called up this year, Eickhoff has an ERA of 9.00. This is not the type of guy you want on the mound when you are facing a powerful offense like the one this Atlanta Braves team has.

This is just another late-season mismatch. The Phillies have been a good home team all year long, so I suspect that is what has kept the line tight, but you would be kidding yourself if you think the Phillies are on the same level as the Braves right now. The Phillies have been swept in their last two series, by this Braves team and the Colorado Rockies, and those games weren’t even all that close. They lost by multiple runs in all but two of those eight games.

Philly has just six wins this month, and they are clearly pouting about it as they struggled to even stay competitive most of the month. For the Braves, they had won twelve out of their last sixteen games before dropping the last two games of their last series against the Mets.

There is just no way I can resist betting against the Phillies again. I have been betting against them all month, and I have made a ton of money, and with three games left in the season, I am not about to switch things up. Give me the Atlanta Braves as road favorites at -137 tonight in game one from Philly!

The Bet: Atlanta Braves -137


Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL