Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants MLB Pick – September 11th

Our hot week continued last night as we picked up another underdog winner when we backed the Milwaukee Brewers against the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers have all kinds of swagger right now, and I expected them to go into Chicago and get the job done, and that is exactly what they did. The game itself was very competitive and had its fair share of tense moments. But when all the dust settled, the Brewers walked away with the 3-2 victory.

The Brewers know they need to win this series to have any shot of catching the Cubs for the National League Central Division title and last night’s win went a long way.  With the win, the Brewers are now just one game behind Chicago for the division lead, and they can tie it up with another win tonight in game two. The central looks like it will come down to the season’s last couple of days, so buckle up your seatbelts and enjoy the ride!

With the winning bet yesterday, we are now 9-4 on the week, with five money line underdog winners. I warned everyone at the start of the week to make sure you keep an eye on baseball with football snatching up most of the betting attention, and for those of you that did, you made some great money. For today’s pick, we will break down the game between the Atlanta Braves and the San Francisco Giants.

The Atlanta Braves are in San Francisco Tuesday for game two of a three-game series with the Giants. The Braves took game one last night 4-1 and have now won four out of their last five games. With the recent surge, they have opened up a five-game lead over the fading Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the National League East Division. The Giants are in freefall at the moment as they have yet to win a game this month, losing nine straight games.

Starting for the Braves is Mike Foltynewicz (10-9 2.75 ERA), and for the Giants, it is Andrew Suarez (6-10 4.33 ERA). The Braves are -133 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM PST from AT&T Park in San Francisco.

It wasn’t that long ago that the San Francisco Giants were fringe contenders in the National League. At the July 31st trade deadline, they stood pat, deciding not to move many of their best players amid lots of speculation that is what they would do. But after a slow month of August, the Giants decided to give in to the pressure and traded away former MVP Andrew McCutchen and shut down catcher Buster Posey. Since the Giants made those two moves?  They are 0-9.

The Giants will try and right the ship tonight at home as they start Andrew Suarez. Suarez has had a strange couple of weeks. In three of his last seven starts, he hasn’t allowed a run. In the other four starts, he has gotten hammered for twenty-one runs, including five or more runs in a game in three of them. Suarez is much better at home this season as his ERA in San Francisco is just 3.07, compared to 5.73 ERA on the road.

The Braves will look to stay hot tonight with Mike Foltynewicz on the mound. Foltynewicz has enjoyed a breakout season this year for the Braves. He was a bit shaky in July, but he has turned that around and in August and September he has an ERA south of two runs. Foltynewicz has allowed one run or fewer in six out of his last seven starts.

You hate to kick a team when they are down, but I am not sure I have a choice in this one. The Giants just don’t seem to care what happens the rest of the way out this season. After coming into the season with a lot of hype surrounding the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria, the season will end in disappointment for Giants fans.

The bats have just completely turned off for the Giants since moving McCutchen and shutting down Posey. During their nine-game losing streak, they have scored three runs or fewer in eight of the games. I don’t see them doing much better tonight against a guy in Foltynewicz that is at the top of his game right now. Suarez is great at home, and that gives me a little pause, but in the end, I can’t pass up on backing the Braves in this one.

This is another spot where I am going to back a favorite that I feel is being undervalued. The Braves have won four out of their last five and are closing in on a division title, and they know that they can’t let easy games like this one pass them by. While the Suarez will do his best to keep the game competitive, the Braves are going to get the job done tonight and leave San Fran with the win. Give me the Atlanta Braves as small road favorites tonight in game two in San Francisco.

The Bet: Atlanta Braves -133


Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL